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    $\begingroup$ @quietflyer: If for this airline fatal accidents have a mean period of 6 years, for the 6 first years, nobody died, the next day the whole crew and the passengers died. And don't call me Shirley :-) $\endgroup$ Commented Mar 27, 2024 at 19:08
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    $\begingroup$ @mins I am trying to understand your logic in your calculation. You divide by a factor 8 to arrive at 5700 years. Are you assuming average 8 hour working days? I think that is extremely high. In staff planning we need approximately 5 FTE for 1 position in 24/7 operations. You need 3 people to work around the clock in 8 hour shift, but you also have to account for weekends, sick leave, holidays, training etc. $\endgroup$ Commented Mar 27, 2024 at 20:26
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    $\begingroup$ For pilots, FAA has a regulatory limit of 1,000 flight hours per year (FAR 121.481(f)). $\endgroup$ Commented Mar 28, 2024 at 7:55
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    $\begingroup$ ".... It means the probability is 100% after 13,400 years." This statistical statement is obviously wrong and hints that you should rethink how this conclusion was derived. To make it more clear: Just because the chance of rolling a 6 on a die is 1/6, the chance to roll at least one 6 after 6 rolls is not 100%. After any finite number of rolls it will in fact never be 100%, instead it is 1-(5/6)^n, where n is the number of rolls. $\endgroup$ Commented Mar 28, 2024 at 12:24
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    $\begingroup$ @mins There’s no law requiring a crash every 6 years. If you say there’s an average 1 crash in 6 years, then it’s exactly the same as the dice: you roll a 6 once every 6 rolls on average. But not with 100% probability, not at all. $\endgroup$ Commented Mar 29, 2024 at 1:43