Deutsche Bank Research

🤖 How does the Federal Reserve separate signal from noise when making policy decisions? In the latest episode of ‘Macro MATTers’, hosts Matthew Luzzetti and Matthew Raskin speak with David Wilcox, Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and Director of US Economic Research at Bloomberg Economics. 📈 From payroll data and inflation reports to web-scraped information, card transactions and AI-powered analysis, they discuss how the Fed assesses the economy in real time, the opportunities and limitations of alternative data, and why preserving the integrity of official statistics remains critical. One theme stands out: more data doesn't automatically mean better decisions. As AI expands the range of information available to policymakers, understanding which signals matter is becoming increasingly important. 🎧 Listen to the episode on the Deutsche Bank Research Institute website – link in the comments.

Many of the companies shaping the future of defense aren't listed on public markets. 🔒 From autonomous systems and cybersecurity to advanced manufacturing and defense software, innovation is increasingly being driven by a new generation of private firms. 🚀 That's why Deutsche Bank Research is looking beyond listed companies within the German defense sector where some of the largest businesses remain private, including a significant number of companies generating more than €1 billion in revenue, creating fresh opportunities across the ecosystem. In a new report, Tim Rokossa, Michael Kuhn and team explore the private companies developing technologies that could define the next phase of defense innovation. Read the report on the Deutsche Bank Research Institute via the link in the comments below. 👇

💬“We are in the scarcest copper environment on record, dating back to the 1980s.” That was the message from Daniel Ghali, CFA, our new Head of Metals Research at Deutsche Bank Research, in an interview with BNN Bloomberg yesterday evening. According to Deutsche Bank Research, freely available above-ground copper inventories are at their lowest level in recorded history. US and Chinese stockpiling could encumber 71% of global inventories by year-end – intensifying what Daniel describes as a “historic battle for metal”. So, what is driving the current copper crunch? And what is behind this week’s sell-off in gold and silver? ▶️Watch Daniel’s full BNN Bloomberg interview – link in the first comment.

🎉 Celebrating a memorable evening at the 2026 Extel Europe & Emerging EMEA Equities Awards. Following a strong performance in this year's survey, including being ranked #1 for German Research by Firm for the 5th time and #3 for UK Research by Firm, it was great to see some of our colleagues recognised at the Extel awards event last week. 🏆 A special congratulations to Tim Rokossa, who was recognised as the top-ranked Germany analyst for the fourth time, and to former colleague Tim Jones, who received a well-deserved Hall of Fame Award in recognition of his exceptional track record of #1 rankings over many years. Meanwhile, Michael Kuhn and Richard Paige achieved #1 for Germany and UK Small & Midcap Stocks, respectively. As Tim Rokossa notes, “Sustained success comes from collaboration, intellectual curiosity, and a genuinely integrated platform across research, sales and trading. These results are a testament to the strength of our European franchise and the commitment of colleagues across the business.” Congratulations to both Tims, Michael and Richard, and to the wider team behind these excellent results, with a special shout-out to our German Investor Relations team, whose collaboration and support have been instrumental in delivering such consistently strong outcomes.

🇩🇪Wie nachhaltig ist das Wachstum in Deutschland?📈 Stärker als von vielen Experten zuvor angenommen, ist Deutschlands Wirtschaft in diesem Jahr bislang gewachsen. Im Live-Interview bei ARD Tagesschau 24 betonte unser Volkswirt Marc Schattenberg, dass die deutsche Wirtschaft angesichts des Preisschocks bei Öl und Gas „sehr starke Robustheit“ bewiesen habe, nicht zuletzt auch dank resilient aufgestellter Lieferketten. Das aktuelle Wachstum gehe vor allem auf staatliche Investitionen sowie den schwungvollen Außenhandel zurück. Entscheidend sei nun, wann der private Konsum und private Bau- und Ausrüstungsinvestitionen in Schwung kämen. Den Link zum Interview gibt’s im ersten Kommentar. Deutsche Bank Samir Ibrahim

🔎The House View Snapshot: A broadening tightening cycle Our latest Houseview is out! Head to the Deutsche Bank Research Institute website for the full report (link is in the comments 👇) Or take a look at the Houseview Snapshot below for a quick overview of Deutsche Bank Research's views on global macro, monetary policy, and markets 👇 Marion Laboure, Ph.D. Jim Reid Camilla Siazon

💬 "European companies are still well able to pass on higher costs and grow their margins. After 3 years of subdued earnings growth in Europe, the recovery in earnings has only just started." European Equities and Cross-Asset Strategist Carolin Raab, CFA joined the team on Bloomberg's Opening Trade this morning to discuss European equities. Watch the interview for more👇 📺 https://lnkd.in/dA6AkTvE

In a new Deutsche Bank Research Institute report, Rohini Grover, Ph.D. highlights that "Tokenisation has the potential to transform the way financial markets operate, from the movement of money and assets to the management of liquidity and risk," and explores the implications of tokenised money for FX markets. To read the full report, ‘Tokenised money and the future of FX’, see link in the comments below. 👇

📈 Europe is back — and Germany’s potential may still be underappreciated by markets. At the start of 2025, our European Equity and Cross Asset Strategy team argued that Europe’s 15-year period of underperformance was coming to an end. Since then the P/E valuation gap between US and European equities has tightened, and the team believes there could be more to come. Several structural factors support Europe’s relative attractiveness: – Valuations: Following the recent tightening, the transatlantic valuation gap is expected to stabilise rather than widen again. – Earnings: Europe’s earnings recovery should continue, with double-digit growth expected in 2026. – Germany: Its fiscal pivot, improving manufacturing activity, renewed international investor interest and advancing reforms could make Germany the powertrain of Europe’s economic recovery. The pension reform alone could unlock substantial additional inflows into European equities. – Diversification: Europe’s broad sector mix offers more varied return drivers than more concentrated markets. – AI: Europe can benefit from AI investment through advanced manufacturing, infrastructure exposure and adoption, while being less directly exposed to monetisation risks. – Political coordination: External trade and geopolitical pressures are encouraging closer EU coordination on trade, defence and fiscal policy. Europe still faces challenges, and the US and China are likely to grow faster. But with Germany gaining fiscal room and Europe offering resilience, diversification and greater policy coordination, the region’s opportunity may still not be fully reflected in equity markets. 🔗 Read the full report by Maximilian Uleer, Carolin Raab, CFA and Francesca Mazzali on the Deutsche Bank Research Institute website: https://lnkd.in/dJnU4Mp4

🗨️ “There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share.” That was Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer talking about Apple’s latest launch in 2007. Nearly two decades later, more than three billion iPhones have been sold. As the debate over AI swings from excitement to extinction fears, a new report from the Deutsche Bank Research Institute takes a step back and asks a simple question: how good are we at predicting the future of technology? In ‘AI doom: A brief history of bad tech predictions’, Adrian Cox explores a century of technology forecasts, highlighting why even brilliant innovators, executives and academics have often got it wrong. From computers and smartphones to cloud computing and self-driving cars, the report examines the challenges of forecasting not just technological breakthroughs, but how society ultimately adopts and uses them. The report puts today's AI debate into historical perspective, exploring what makes AI unique, why predictions are so difficult, and why the future of AI may be shaped as much on Main Street as in Silicon Valley. 🔗 Read the full report from the Deutsche Bank Research Institute via the link in the comments 👇