Your description isn't too far off from predictive models, like VOACAP.

40m works very much better when the entire path is in darkness. At 8 or 9 PM in western NY, at this time of year (August), it is still light for the Western US. As such you won't have great results in that direction.

And in the other direction to the East, you get a whole lot of ocean, with marginal coverage of Western Europe and Northwest Africa.

It's hard to definitively say without qualitative measurements with a field strength meter, but I'd guess your antenna is just fine. Radial orientation isn't critical, though you might check for common-mode current and add a choke and/or consider burying the feedline.

My suggestion: wait until later in the night (here's 0900 UTC):

or try a different band, like 20m at 0000 UTC:

or 30m at 0000 UTC (SSB isn't allowed on 30m, though this model is for SSB anyway for consistency):

Your description isn't too far off from predictive models, like VOACAP.

40m works very much better when the entire path is in darkness. At 8 or 9 PM in western NY, at this time of year (August), it is still light for the Western US. As such you won't have great results in that direction.

And in the other direction to the East, you get a whole lot of ocean, with marginal coverage of Western Europe and Northwest Africa.

It's hard to definitively say without qualitative measurements with a field strength meter, but I'd guess your antenna is just fine. Radial orientation isn't critical.

My suggestion: wait until later in the night (here's 0900 UTC):

or try a different band, like 20m at 0000 UTC:

or 30m at 0000 UTC (SSB isn't allowed on 30m, though this model is for SSB anyway for consistency):

Your description isn't too far off from predictive models, like VOACAP.

40m works very much better when the entire path is in darkness. At 8 or 9 PM in western NY, at this time of year (August), it is still light for the Western US. As such you won't have great results in that direction.

And in the other direction to the East, you get a whole lot of ocean, with marginal coverage of Western Europe and Northwest Africa.

It's hard to definitively say without qualitative measurements with a field strength meter, but I'd guess your antenna is just fine. Radial orientation isn't critical.

My suggestion: wait until later in the night (here's 0900 UTC):

or try a different band, like 20m at 0000 UTC:

or 30m at 0000 UTC:

Your description isn't too far off from predictive models, like VOACAP.

40m works very much better when the entire path is in darkness. At 8 or 9 PM in western NY, at this time of year (August), it is still light for the Western US. As such you won't have great results in that direction.

And in the other direction to the East, you get a whole lot of ocean, with marginal coverage of Western Europe and Northwest Africa.

It's hard to definitively say without qualitative measurements with a field strength meter, but I'd guess your antenna is just fine. Radial orientation isn't critical, though you might check for common-mode current and add a choke and/or consider burying the feedline.

My suggestion: wait until later in the night (here's 0900 UTC):

or try a different band, like 20m at 0000 UTC:

or 30m at 0000 UTC (SSB isn't allowed on 30m, though this model is for SSB anyway for consistency):