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    "It's not that complicated ..." surely the surprise attack and treating POWs atrociously was a major complicating factor. As OP points out, Japanese actions in the first several months of the Pacific War seemed like they were calculated to make a negotiated peace less likely. Commented Jan 2, 2021 at 14:31
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    The First Chechen War's example is somewhat nullified by the Second one following it. As much as its tactics were woeful Russia never lost the strategic initiative, it could choose to withdraw and return, which it did. Commented Jan 3, 2021 at 8:26
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    @JohnColeman: perhaps Japanese planners didn't anticipate the realities of how their troops would behave, and/or how that would be perceived from an American PoV? Or didn't take that into account when comparing how other conflicts between other nations had gone. It seems from this and other answers that Japanese high command thinking was pretty wishful and/or disconnected from reality in other ways. Commented Jan 3, 2021 at 9:26