Using the Logic of Surprise to Infer Cosmic Design
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On a hike, you stumble upon a seemingly abandoned cabin in the woods. When you walk in, you notice a steaming cup of tea sitting on the table. On the hypothesis that the cabin is deserted, the tea would be shockingly surprising. But on the hypothesis that the cabin is inhabited, not so much. How does this little story illuminate the case for intelligent design? On this ID The Future, host Andrew McDiarmid speaks with Dr. Timothy McGrew, one of the experts featured in the new movie The Story of Everything. The movie is a cinematic exploration of the scientific evidence for a mind behind the universe. Based on Dr. Stephen Meyer’s 2021 book Return of the God Hypothesis, The Story of Everything brings the evidence for intelligent design to life through stunning footage, cutting-edge animation, and engaging interviews with over 20 scientists and scholars.
Dr. McGrew explains that we often find the truth by looking for explanations that make sense of surprising facts. In McGrew’s cabin analogy, which is featured in The Story of Everything, coming across the hot cup of tea is shocking if you think the cabin is abandoned, but it’s exactly what you would expect if someone lives there. By using this logic of surprise, says McGrew, we can compare different theories about the world and see which one makes the most sense of the evidence.
McGrew then applies this idea to the genetic code and the origin of the universe. The genetic code is so highly optimized for fixing errors that it resembles software written by a genius. That would be extremely surprising if it occurred by accident, but much less so on a hypothesis of intentional design. Similarly, the discovery that the universe had a beginning was shocking to many scientists because it suggests a cause that exists outside of physical matter. McGrew also points to the incredible beauty and mathematical order found in nature, arguing that they serve as strong clues that a mind is at work in the origin of life and the cosmos.
Dig Deeper
- Watch the trailer and get tickets to see The Story of Everything!
- Learn more about how Bayesian reasoning can inform our evaluation of scientific hypotheses in this recommended book.