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    $\begingroup$ What you want to look into is Cramer's model, and how it's used to make probabilistic heuristics. $\endgroup$ Commented 15 hours ago
  • $\begingroup$ @Wojowu I have studied Cramer's model and I understand the heuristics behind the prime number theorem. What I want to do is run Vinogradov's method to different types of arithmetic progressions and understand the limitations of this method. $\endgroup$ Commented 15 hours ago
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    $\begingroup$ This is very different to what you seem to ask in the body of the question, which is explicitly about the heuristics. If you are asking about tools used to turn such heuristics into formal proofs, that's a completely different story $\endgroup$ Commented 15 hours ago