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Philosophy

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  • "It has been claimed" where and by whom? Context can make a difference. When this is claimed, the prediction is most likely taken to be meant as a genuine prediction and not as wishful thinking, expression of resolve, fear mongering, or something else in disguise. In those cases, psychology obviously plays a role. Commented Feb 25, 2024 at 11:58
  • @A-LevelStudent If someone has been convicted several times of tampering with the lottery machine to win the prize, then we will suspect he did it again if he predicts that he is going to win the lottery again. Whether this would have something to do with the psychology of this person or something else would have to be decided by an expertise of the case. Commented Feb 25, 2024 at 16:13
  • We all have a shared interest in better understanding ourselves and understanding others. Experts are not always better. Pay attention to what outcomes you can and cannot predict or influence and then draw an inference to what you think another person might be able to predict or influence in some specific context. One story in the Bible the prophet tells a wicked king: Your blood will run in this field! Prophet later sends someone with oil to anoint Jehu King of Israel. When the battle is starts, a scout reports, "The riding is like Jehu in its fury." Jehu kills the wicked king as predicted! Commented Feb 25, 2024 at 17:46
  • In law school my friend had a roommate who would play poker at the casino on weekends. When we started playing poker every week, he told my friend, "I'm going to take Joe's money" (in the regular Tuesday night poker games). I would drink beer, have fun, and try to bluff randomly, intimidating this timid fool with my betting strategy and my devil-may-care attitude to the outcome of any particular hand of poker! He won some hands, I won some hands, but he never took my money! Poker is a game you play against the other players. Strategic interactions are called Game Theory. Commented Feb 25, 2024 at 17:49
  • A few years after graduating law school I play poker in a casino in Las Vegas. The drinks are free at the tables. I drink too much beer. I am too slow folding or deciding to take a card so two old ladies complain about this. I notice they fold frequently paying only the small ante to see their two hole cards. Later I wonder if these women are professional gamblers who use some conservative strategy to increase their odds of winning on average against beer drinking fools who have bad card reading skills and bet too aggressively! Commented Feb 25, 2024 at 17:55