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• The US blocks ships that are coming from Iranian ports

• Iran blocks ships that aren't from a select list of friendly countries (we can debate whether they are "blocking" or "not blocking", but the numbers speak for themselves - few ships transited, even before the US blockade).

What the US is doing

So, when the US attacked Iran on Feb 28, 2026, they did exactly what had been predicted. Except that, unlike the 2000s we now have drones and cheap missiles allowing swarming and saturation attacks. Look at the travails of the Russian Black Sea fleet: this would be a very hard nut to crack.

• The US blocks ships that are coming from Iranian ports

• Iran blocks ships that aren't from a select list of friendly countries (we can debate whether they are "blocking" or "not blocking", but the numbers speak for themselves - few ships transited, even before the US blockade).

• With some exceptions, like China and India-linked ships, either Iran will want to block a ship or the US will want to block it.

What the US is doing and why

(sorry, the wargame was so prescient that I'll quote some of it)

... CJTF-South seized these islands and established a controversial military escort service to protect ships navigating through the region, charging a toll for its services. This led to a direct military response from "Blue," whose primary objectives were to secure international shipping lanes, neutralize Red's weapons of mass effect (WME) capabilities, and restore sovereignty over the disputed islands...

So, when the US attacked Iran on Feb 28, 2026, Iran did exactly what had been predicted. Except that, unlike the 2000s we now have drones and cheap missiles allowing swarming and saturation attacks. Look at the travails of the Russian Black Sea Fleet: this would be a very hard nut to crack.

SkyNews YouTube - April 28th, 2026 also claims that Iran may be facing a big problem in 2-3 weeks: running out of storage to put their oil into. Problem being that a wellhead can be damaged, permanently or longterm, if oil flow can't be maintained out (oddly enough, the Gulf States seem at less risk from what others have been saying: "merely" months to get them going again).

What the US is doing

TLDR

• The US blocks ships that are coming from Iranian ports

• Iran blocks ships that aren't from a select list of friendly countries (we can debate whether they are "blocking" or "not blocking", but the numbers speak for themselves - few ships transited, even before the US blockade).

What the US is doing