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The United States recently moved for a "liberation day" tariff plan. My understanding is that the primary purpose of this was to move the manufacturing of US-consumed goods to domestic production.

I can understand why the US would want to move high-tech manufacturing to within its borders, and a lot of it — airplanes and military equipment, for example — is already there.

However, most other manufacturing is done elsewhere in the world, primarily due to lower costs there, which is impossible to achieve in the US. The US per capita GDP is about 7x the per capita GDP of China, or 18x that of Vietnam (GDP pc).

If this low-cost manufacturing is moved to the US, either the costs for the consumer will rise to much higher levels or the salary for the US worker will have to be very low. This doesn't seem feasible.

Why does the United States want to move all manufacturing to domestic production?

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    "My understanding is that the primary purpose of this was to move manufacturing of US-consumed goods to within US." The "all" from the title is missing here. What have Trump, the US government, GOP politicians said about it? Did they say all manufacturing or only more manufacturing? Commented Apr 13, 2025 at 7:07
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    @NoDataDumpNoContribution They did impose tariffs on pretty much all their trading partners (Good Russia excepted!) so I am unsure how much this distinction matters. Commented Apr 13, 2025 at 15:46
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    @NoDataDumpNoContribution But 10% tariffs is not how this crap started. And it only wound back somewhat - for a limited time, 90 days - when it became clear the stockmarket was crashing. Even worse, if you look around for some more in depth financial coverage is how USD strength & Treasury bonds are looking shaky: people are starting to lose trust in the US as a safe haven. Trust which underpins relatively cheap costs of borrowing for the ever growing deficit. So, yes, this was an "all" imposition and it was meant to really shake things up to get much as possible back to the US. Commented Apr 13, 2025 at 18:18
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    Do they want "all" production moved, or do they want some moved and the rest subject to tariffs? Trump has repeatedly stated that reducing or eliminating trade deficits is a goal, which would suggest having some imports isn't a problem as long as the US exports more. Commented Apr 14, 2025 at 14:36
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    The title of this question presents a false premise. The 'US' doesn't want this. Trump, and some fraction of his team and supporters say this is what they want. It's not something the general populace is asking for. Commented Apr 14, 2025 at 17:29

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A huge part of the Trump "base" comes from de-industrialized parts of America that used to turn out lower-value manufacturing items like steel or low-tech widgets. Or cars. i.e. the Rust Belt. Many of these are areas that used to vote for the Democrats.

People have a - justified I might add - nostalgia for when their parents could have a middle class, lower-middle class, lifestyle from working in factories, with relatively low educational requirements. This is a problem in much of the Western world, btw.

Current high end manufacturing, where the US would do well, requires much more than entry level education. For example, some of TSMC's chip fab plans for the US, to repatriate capacity from Taiwan, not least out of concern about its exposure to China has struggled to ramp up because they can't source the highly skilled workers needed in the US. Or, pick your truth, skilled American workers don't want to work under TSMC work conditions, which dovetails with this question's framing.

Basically, people want to have the socio-economic status their parents and grandparents had, with their parents' education levels *, but in a context of advanced manufacturing. That's hard to square, so bringing back say shoe manufacturing is appealing (mind you even that would be robotized). And as the "Trump brand" is rather allergic to expertise and education, the voters are not going to be told that that doesn't make sense. So the stated solution is to "bring it all back." Along with "big, beautiful, coal" too.

Now, bringing back some manufacturing or mining is not necessarily a bad idea in and of itself. Look at the pandemic when at first no one could get medical equipment as China needed it. Or look at Russia, not doing well at all once all the advanced widgets it relied on from the West were put on sanction (even leaky sanctions drive up costs). Look at China's leveraging of rare earths.

But you need a long term, disciplined plan that starts with education and some level of honesty towards your post-industrial voters to what they will have to do, as well as carefully picking which domains you want to have an industrial policy on. Then you need to be very, very, careful on how to carry out that industrial policy, because failures tend to outnumber successes when it comes to governments getting too involved with industry. You need good universities. And you will need to nurture it for a long time, until the factories are competitive by whatever metric you decide upon. (That's, btw, what Taiwan did with their chip industry). **.

The US does run an industrial policy of sorts, via its military procurement. That's been one of Airbus's arguments in its trade spats with Boeing anyway. I also wouldn't rule out the US succeeding at re-strengthening some of the more actually beneficial and critical industries, given a competent administration. Look at DARPA, for example.


Reality and economics trumps rhetoric though, as we've seen when Trump is now walking back computer and phone tariffs, even on China. That's because the outcome of that would have been immediately apparent in stores, through massive price increases.

Typical iPhone prices might have moved closer to $2,000 (£1,528) than $1,000. The other option for Apple could have been to spread the cost across all of its global prices, but would the rest of the world accept paying a Trump tariff tax?

A more diffuse ramp up of prices, for precisely the reasons cited in the question, is almost certain to happen, IF this idiocy proceeds. But until it does, the Trump government just doesn't seem to be able to anticipate/acknowledge it.


* I suspect the US was more competitive education-wise 50 or 80 years ago than it is now and will be even less when Trump is done with his war on the Dept. of Education.

** Everyone can decide for themselves how likely this administration is to carry out a carefully planned, complicated, long term program of that sort, where discipline, expertise and predictability are much in need.

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  • Comments have been moved to chat; please do not continue the discussion here. Before posting a comment below this one, please review the purposes of comments. Comments that do not request clarification or suggest improvements usually belong as an answer, on Politics Meta, or in Politics Chat. Comments continuing discussion may be removed. Commented Apr 24, 2025 at 19:57
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Your question isn't worded correctly, it should read.

Question:

Why does President Trump say he wants to move all manufacturing to domestic production, and why do many of his supporters support this idea?

Short Answer:

For many of President Trump's supporters it's just ignorance of how the economy works. Faith in their guy, President Trump, that he won't take advantage of them and that he knows what he's doing. For President Trump and his advisors, it appears to be sowing anger with others to justify what they are doing which is monetizing the Presidency and the US economy for their personal benefit.

Answer:

President Trump is selling a narrative that because the United States has run a massive trade deficit to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars with China and smaller systemic deficits with others like Germany that this is evidence that somehow trade is unfair. That if these countries weren't "cheating" the U.S. economy would be stronger, with more jobs, better pay and basically their standards of living would improve. This is just untrue and President Trump and his advisors know it. Both President Trump and Vice President Vance were asked during their debates to address the fact that 20 Nobel prize winning economists said his policies of sanctions and "onshoring" would shrink the US economy their answers were, "they could be wrong". They can't name a single respected economist which supports their plans. Certainly not Keynesian economists who have been prominent since the great depression, but also not the Chicago School of economics or Milton Friedman which has been prominent since the 1980's and traditionally favored by Republicans.

Here is how it works, every American runs a trade deficit with their grocery store, dept store, and Amazon.com. If the government put a tax on those retail outlets that doesn't help the consumer, it makes the costs go up and the consumer either does without or buys less. Their personal deficit is not bad for the consumer because they get goods from those sources which they need at a reasonable price. It all works out because the consumer has other avenues like employers where they receive more funds than they spend in exchange for their time and expertise.

The reason why onshoring is bad is because there is a reason the jobs left, generally because the offshore country could do the job more efficiently and yield a cheaper product. So to bring that production back to the U.S. again means paying more and doing with less. About the trillions of trade deficits which some are so bent over, that’s not an optimal thing but it’s really not a bad thing either. Every deficit dollar must return to the U.S. to achieve full value. So even if china puts those dollars in their mattress for years most will still eventually come home to buy American goods which is a good thing.

Bottom line as the worlds largest most diverse economy prior to Trump we have done well under free trade as many other countries have. To turn away from what has made us suucessful to a protectionist market is beyond stupid. That is literally the economic model followed by China and India when they were among the poorest in the world, china in the 70s India in the 80s.

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Nobody honestly wants to move all of the United States' manufacturing to domestic production, because doing so is simply not possible in a predominantly service-based capitalist economy like that nation's.

The reason that Western capitalist economies, including the USA's, have boomed since the end of World War II is due to the ability to offshore manufacturing to foreign nations where it is cheaper to produce goods. This is because those nations' standards of living are lower than that of Western economies, therefore their cost of labour - the #1 expense for employers - is correspondingly lower.

Tariffs nominally redress this balance by adding an arbitrary tax on foreign imports, making it more expensive to import goods produced overseas. In practice tariffs have fallen out of favour because they are trivially circumvented:

  • Country A places tariffs on country B, such that importing from B to A is no longer economically viable
  • Solution: B instead exports its goods to country C, which A has not imposed tariffs on, and thence from C to A

There are various ways that attempt to prevent such circumvention from happening, such as requiring a certain percentage of every import to be constructed in the importing country, but these themselves can be worked around. Ultimately, tariff enforcement becomes a game of whack-a-mole in which huge numbers of people are employed to expend huge amounts of time and government money to make sure that imports aren't evading tariffs. It's a losing proposition.

But say that tariffs work. Say that every company that currently offshores their manual labour decides to bring it back to the USA. The problem is that there aren't enough people on the USA willing to do that labour, because the USA - like every other Western economy - has long since transitioned from being a goods-based economy to a service-based one. The primary reason for this is that the latter type of job is perceived to generate more economic value, therefore is paid better, and thus citizens prefer such jobs. The end result is that even if manufacturing jobs were brought back to the USA, nobody would want to do them, because they don't pay well enough.

That's the one-punch, but the two-knockout blow is automation. Because human labour is the most expensive (and unreliable) part of any business, replacing humans with machines that do the same work for far less money and without needing to eat or sleep, has been a focus of capitalist manufacturing since the dawn of time. Even in the economies where manual labour is cheapest, automation has made inroads into manufacturing because it's cheaper, with the result that manual labour is starting to become economically unviable there. And it will only get worse.

In short, what really needs to happen for manufacturing jobs to come back to the USA is the following:

  • tariffs on foreign imports to make them economically unviable compared to producing locally
  • manual labour jobs to pay as well as or better than service ones
  • automation of manual labour to be restricted or banned, such that manual labour jobs remain plentiful and thus wages high

The first one is simple and has already been done. The other two... well, they're far more difficult. How do you force companies to pay a higher wage for a manual-labour job? You could subsidise them, but that'll never happen because that's communism according to Trump and co. As for preventing automation... yeah good luck with that.

So essentially there is no conceivable world in which manufacturing jobs can and will come back to the USA en masse, because the fundamental economics of capitalism simply don't allow it. Anyone with a basic grasp of those economics can see this; Trump and his voters cannot. But then their grasp on the basics of anything, except ignorance and bigotry, has always been tenuous.

In short, this is not a sane or coherent policy, merely a populist tactic to appeal to a voting base that has neither understanding nor care for economic realities. It's not a question of whether this "policy" will fail; it could never succeed. And ultimately the only ones who will benefit are Trump and his cronies who are using this "policy" to manipulate the market to enrich themselves at the expense of everyone else.

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    The reason that Western capitalist economies, including the USA's, have boomed since the end of World War II is due to the ability to offshore manufacturing to foreign nations where it is cheaper to produce goods. But no boom across US society could happen unless there were still adequate manufacturing jobs in the country doing the offshoring. In the last 40 years this is increasingly not the case. Then again you have US corporations offshoring their tax liabilities to special corp tax states like Ireland, Israel, etc - though regional and global efforts are being made against this. Commented Apr 17, 2025 at 11:01
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    We must also note that serious global competition in manufacturing didn't exist till post 1973. Before that US/EEC made the best goods. Quality advocates like Deming and Juran were laughed at by US manufacturers of cars and most other things. Quality control applied in electronics manufacture since the 1920s had to wait till the early 1980s to find favour by auto makers. If you recall the "Made in Hong Kong" or "Made in Japan" toys we saw as youngsters, these were laughed at by better off parents. 1973 oil crisis and the need for good mpg in our cars ended US/EU economic comfort. Commented Apr 17, 2025 at 11:43
  • @Trunk Yes, there are many more factors here but I wanted to write an answer for somewhat wide consumption, not a dissertation. :) Commented Apr 17, 2025 at 13:01
  • I wonder if neglecting quality - and what it takes to achieve it, like education, training, realistic unsentimental management, etc - serves to help today's US citizens realize where they are. If you live in US it's real hard to tell folks that US steel is crap, that education needs paying for by state & federal government and that quality needs government enforcement. I think this is like Brexit in UK. There's a small but definite majority that just wants to do this. Democracy is often the tyranny of the vulgar. They'll do it, get their fingers burnt and learn the hard way. Rest of us pay. Commented Apr 17, 2025 at 13:19
  • @Trunk the culprit is, as with everything, ignorance. Ignorance that things can and should be better, ignorance that "the way things have always been" is not necessarily the best, ignorance that the past that so many yearn for is not all it's cracked up to be. And in many cases it is an intentional ignorance because facing up to reality is more painful than living in bigotry. This is why public office, and the privilege to vote, should be limited to those who are not ignorant (and yes I'm aware that can be a slippery slope, but what we have right now is very clearly no longer working). Commented Apr 17, 2025 at 15:22
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It's a political priority to Trump (not the United States) that manufacturing jobs be returned as his voters are those who lost out from the offshoring of these jobs.

The more jobs the US admin tries to repatriate, the more they'll regain. Hence the Tarzan hollers from the White House. If he delivers on repatriating even 10% of the jobs moved overseas to low-cost labor states, he - and his allies - are home and dry politically.

If he fails on it, he's a dead duck in politics.

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  • This is simple but true because they won't be able to do it. Furthermore, if they did do it and all these factories opened up, they'd would end up with surpluses and nobody would be able to afford to import them. Commented Apr 16, 2025 at 21:34
  • Ain't you heard of dumping, i.e. selling domestically-produced surplus goods overseas at little to no profit - even at a loss ? EU did it with its 1970s butter mountains, wine lakes, tomato silos and so on that resulted from the Common Agricultural Policy. It was said that the butter mountain was periodically flogged off cheap to the Russians for a fraction of the EU supermarket price . . . Commented Apr 16, 2025 at 21:50
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    You can't sell products cheaply or otherwise, if all potential buyers have put tariffs against you in retaliation for your tariffs against them. Commented Apr 17, 2025 at 12:20
  • I haven't heard any announcements on trade tariffs or anti-dumping measures from Togo, Cote d'Ivoire, Guinea-Bissau, Afghanistan, etc. Commented Apr 17, 2025 at 13:01
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    allafrica.com/stories/202504030443.html Madagascar, for example: 47% tariff by the US. And Ivory Coast: 21% Commented Apr 17, 2025 at 15:19
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If this low-cost manufacturing is moved to the US, either the costs for the consumer will rise to much higher levels or the salary for the US worker will have to be very low. This doesn't seem feasible.

There is a third option. Which is that costs for the consumer will rise, wages for the worker will rise even more - meaning that for workers, consumer prices will actually fall relative to their wages, although both increase somewhat in nominal terms. Whilst rents and profit rates for the parasite capitalist class will fall back (relative to the levels they have been achieving by selling American plant and know-how abroad, and by allowing the experience of American workers to atrophy).

Why does the United States want to move all manufacturing to domestic production?

Control. By physical possession not only of the territory where the manufacturing plant and tooling is established, but also by allegiance of experienced workers who produce and operate all kinds of plant, tooling, and produce all kinds of finished goods, you have a great deal more state economic control and military potential than if a foreign state has all these things and you do not.

At it's simplest, in wartime, you can't rely on your enemy and his workers continuing to make your ships and cannons for you. They will just embargo you, switch you off by administrative fiat of their state.

Nor is it enough only to have the written-down intelligence about how to make ships and cannons in principle. You still need physical installations in existence, and you need workers able and willing to build and maintain those installations as well as produce the outputs.

The workers will not be willing if they immediately defect to the enemy or sabotage your production at high rates, like the French did to Nazi Germany when it occupied and tried to use their factories and press French workers.

And even if they are willing, the workers will not be able to immediately start producing the most complex economic products. Many kinds of work require experience and tacit culture that evolves over a generation or more.

You can't take workers who live in hovels with mud floors and insects crawling up the windows, and expect them to work in a semiconductor clean room, because they don't live, and haven't lived, in the conditions in which they can rehearse the subtleties of perception and motivation of keeping things clean to the required degree.

Nor can you take workers who are brutalised by civil and economic conflict, who don't even know if they'll have a roof over their heads next week, and cause them to properly concentrate for years on end on developing their skills to work on subtle technologies.

In other cases, even if the preconditions are satisfactory, workers simply need time to interact with the materials and the tooling, and develop habits and embed their understandings about how they interact with the factory environment, with colleagues performing different roles, and to become perceptually sensitive to the quality of the output and how it is influenced by the manner of the work.

But if you have a supply chain that requires several stages, and you're missing all of them to begin with, then workers in later stages can't even begin to accustom to their work and produce anything, until the earlier stages are set up and settled. No good when you have a war to fight today!

Those like Trump have basically realised that America has a problem, but they are assuming that the markets will spontaneously react to tariffs to correct the situation. That is, Trump is following the orthodox description of how markets work according to liberal economics.

They have not accounted for the time and scale of the reorganisation required - a scale that requires state direction to coordinate (like the Chinese have) - and the fact that many of the rich in the global markets, if not immediately brought to heel using the full force of the US state, will first attempt to resist (e.g. by crashing markets and moving capital out of the US) or even bring Trump and America down sooner than allow global free trade to be undermined (i.e. they will push for US regime change and permanent subordination of the American state).

It remains to be seen whether Trump will effectively sign an Enabling Act and gear up in economic terms as if for total war, mobilising the entire American workforce in full (using high taxation and state direction), or whether it'll simply be the last hurrah before America slips into permanent subordination (and, no doubt more internal strife).

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  • Comments have been moved to chat; please do not continue the discussion here. Before posting a comment below this one, please review the purposes of comments. Comments that do not request clarification or suggest improvements usually belong as an answer, on Politics Meta, or in Politics Chat. Comments continuing discussion may be removed. Commented Apr 24, 2025 at 19:58

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