Aims: To evaluate the type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) risk of individuals with different types of dyslipidaemia and compare the predictive value of distinct lipid parameters in predicting T2DM.

Methods: We conducted a secondary analysis of data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS). 17 708 individuals over 45 years old were interviewed, and 11 847 blood samples were collected at the baseline survey (2011-2012). Outcome of T2DM was confirmed during two follow-up surveys (2013-2014 and 2015-2016). The HRs and 95% CI of T2DM associated with dyslipidaemia were estimated by Cox proportional hazards regressions model. The discriminatory value of eight lipid parameters were compared by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC).

Results: A total of 7329 participants were enrolled in our analysis; during the mean follow-up time of 3.4 years, 387 (5.28%) participants developed new-onset diabetes. Compared with participants in normal lipid levels, the T2DM risk of those with hypercholesterolaemia, hypertriglyceridaemia and low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) were significantly increased (HRs (95% CI) were 1.48 (1.11 to 1.96), 1.92 (1.49 to 2.46) and 1.67 (1.35 to 2.07), respectively). The AUCs of non-HDL-C (0.685, 95% CI 0.659 to 0.711), triglyceride (TG) (0.684, 95% CI 0.658 to 0.710), total cholesterol (TC)/HDL-C (0.685, 95% CI 0.659 to 0.712) and TG/HDL-C (0.680, 95% CI 0.654 to 0.706) were significantly (p<0.005) larger than that of other lipid parameters.

Conclusion: Middle-aged and elderly adults with hypertriglyceridaemia, hypercholesterolaemia and low HDL-C were at higher risk for developing diabetes. Non-HDL-C, TG, TC/HDL and TG/HDL have greater performance than other lipid parameters in predicting T2DM incidence.