QCP

QCP Market Colour, 30 March 2026 BTC Holds Range as U.S. Holds Fire BTC briefly dipped to $65k in thin Asia hours before rebounding into the $66k to $67k range, continuing a familiar pattern of weekend weakness followed by early-week stabilisation. Despite last Friday’s post-expiry sell-off and unresolved tensions in Iran, BTC has held the broader $65k to $70k range, even as it tracks toward a sixth consecutive red monthly close, reflecting still-fragile sentiment. That said, BTC’s relative performance has been notable. It has outpaced gold and equities since the Iran conflict began, suggesting some resilience even as macro remains strained. With Trump’s 10-day pause on strikes approaching its April 6 deadline, markets are bracing for potential escalation, keeping BTC range-bound and headline-driven. Macro and geopolitics remain tightly linked. Elevated oil prices and ongoing supply chain risks, particularly around key chokepoints, continue to reinforce a stagflationary backdrop. Even in a de-escalation scenario, war risk premiums are unlikely to ease quickly, leaving inflation pressures sticky. In options, post-expiry vol compression has been muted, with traders still paying for gamma and overwriters largely sidelined. The surface reflects caution, not panic, consistent with a market that is stable, but not yet ready to break higher. Read more: https://lnkd.in/dQfsMUaT

In a recent The Business Times article, Yuan Rong Tan, who leads our ALM Trading Desk, shared his views on why the relationship between gold and Bitcoin will become increasingly important for institutional portfolios in 2026. As Yuan Rong notes, while gold remains a longstanding defensive anchor, Bitcoin is emerging as a distinct asset shaped by growing institutional adoption, deeper market structure and its evolving role in portfolio construction. At QCP, we see this dynamic becoming increasingly relevant: - Greater institutional interest in how Bitcoin behaves alongside traditional stores of value - Growing focus on disciplined, risk-managed exposure as digital asset markets mature - A more nuanced approach to portfolio construction across changing macro and liquidity regimes As the market continues to evolve, our focus remains on helping clients navigate digital assets with institutional discipline, robust risk management and strategies built for sustainable, long-term participation. Read the full article on The Business Times: https://lnkd.in/ghHG68Xh

QCP Market Colour, 26 March 2026 Quiet Range, Loud Backdrop BTC is hovering around $70k, and the tape still reads as quiet consolidation rather than stress. Macro remains fragile on renewed Middle East headlines, with oil retaining a geopolitical premium even after easing off the highs. Against that backdrop, BTC’s resilience stands out: recent net outflows suggest coins are being pulled off venues rather than positioned for sale, while BTC dominance continues to edge higher, reinforcing a more defensive tilt within crypto. The bigger macro question is that markets have repriced the inflation shock faster than the growth shock. Risk assets have absorbed higher oil and a rates reset, but the extent of any growth damage remains unclear if geopolitical stress persists. That leaves BTC in an in-between regime, no longer a pure high-beta proxy for equities, but not yet a consistent safe haven either, keeping price action range-bound and headline-driven. Options are telling a similar story. Implied vols are easing on the day and week, carry remains positive, and the curve stays in mild contango. Downside hedges are still in demand, even if not at extremes, suggesting caution is being priced, not panic. For now, BTC looks accumulated on dips but not chased. Until geopolitics stabilises or macro repricing moves further, this remains a headline-driven range market rather than the start of a clean trend. Read more: https://lnkd.in/gd3Rsyse

Eid Mubarak from all of us at QCP. Wishing you and your loved ones a joyful and peaceful Eid Al-Adha, filled with reflection, gratitude, and meaningful moments with family and friends.

QCP Market Colour, 24 March 2026 Crypto Dragged Down As The War Drags On? Trump’s ultimatum for Iran to open the Strait over the weekend did not unfold as planned. Risk assets initially weakened as markets priced elevated geopolitical risk, including the threat of strikes on Iranian power infrastructure. After the deadline passed, Trump postponed planned action, citing “productive conversations”, helping steady crypto and broader risk even as Tehran denied that any talks occurred. With facts still murky, markets took some reprieve from the reported five-day pause window. Crypto, however, has continued to show surprising resilience. BTC briefly dipped below $70k over the weekend, but held up better than prior risk-off episodes, when thin liquidity would often have amplified downside. This may reflect lower leverage across the system, but it may also hint at the early stages of a regime shift, where BTC no longer trades as a pure high-beta proxy for equities. The macro backdrop is making that framing easier to test. U.S. national debt has surpassed $39 trillion, with additional fiscal outlays now being discussed, while signs of stagflation are emerging and central banks face the familiar policy trap. In that environment, BTC can begin to look less like a speculative asset and more like a neutral escape valve. Geopolitics is reinforcing the point. Iran has floated a “yuan-for-passage” proposal, effectively tying Hormuz access to settlement in Chinese yuan rather than US dollars. We are not there yet, with the dollar still firm and bond markets still functioning, but the longer this drags on, the more room there is for BTC’s neutral, permissionless settlement narrative to re-enter the conversation. Read more: https://lnkd.in/gDcSHzuQ

Excited to share that Melvin Deng, CEO of QCP, will be speaking at Kaiko’s the Agora on 31 March. Melvin will be joining the panel “Crypto on Institutional Balance Sheets: What Are the Implications?” alongside Thomas Restout of B2C2, Emelie Moritz of Safello, and Frédéric Dalibard of Hexarq, with moderation by William Cai of Kaiko. We’re looking forward to an insightful conversation on the growing role of crypto on institutional balance sheets and hearing the panel's views on what this means for the evolution of digital asset markets. Join us at the Agora on 31 March to listen in to the conversation and hear from leaders shaping the future of institutional crypto.

QCP Market Colour, 18 March 2026 BTC Range Holds as Central Banks Take Centre Stage BTC is hovering around $74k this morning, still holding the post-shock range but struggling to push through the recent highs. The broader crypto complex remains soft, though relative to the drawdown in other macro-sensitive risk assets, the damage has been fairly contained. On-chain flows still suggest dip-buying toward the lower end of the range, but spot volumes are light and near-term direction remains macro-led. In options, conditions are firm but defensive. 30-day implied vol is holding near the 50 handle, still above realised, keeping carry positive and the setup supportive for premium sellers. Term structure remains mildly in contango, while 30-day risk reversals continue to price puts richer than calls. Skew is not extreme, but a residual geopolitical premium remains embedded further out the curve. Macro is the dominant driver into a dense central bank week, with the Fed on Wednesday followed by the ECB, BoJ and BoE on Thursday. Markets have pared easing expectations as higher oil complicates the case for cuts, even as growth and labour data soften, leaving the rates backdrop less supportive for crypto. With oil hovering near $100 and geopolitics keeping a stagflationary tone across assets, BTC is no longer trading as pure high-beta risk, but it is not yet seeing consistent safe-haven inflows either. For now, the range likely holds until policy or geopolitics offers clearer direction. Read more: https://lnkd.in/gvuyG-uK

Last week, our CEO, Melvin Deng, spoke at Blockchain APAC’s Policy Week Australia 2026 in Sydney on Supervisory Posture, Enforcement Signals and Credibility. The discussion explored how supervisory signalling, guidance, and enforcement posture can shape market behaviour well before final rules are introduced, as well as the importance of cross-agency consistency and regulatory credibility in supporting market stability. Thank you to Blockchain APAC for the opportunity to share, and it was great to speak to such an engaged audience.

QCP Market Colour, 16 March 2026 Crypto Strikes Back The war is not letting up, and neither is crypto. BTC and ETH have pushed above $74k and $2,270 respectively, even as equities and gold remain under pressure, a late-quarter divergence that markets are now being forced to price. The move is reviving the “digital safe haven” and “geopolitical hedge” narrative, with rising Iran-related tensions appearing to drive greater on-chain activity and demand for cross-border liquidity. USDC supply hit a record $81.1B last week, lifting overall stablecoin supply and signalling fresh liquidity entering crypto amid global uncertainty. Institutional bid looks to be returning as well. Bitcoin ETFs have logged five consecutive days of inflows, with BlackRock’s ETF posting its third straight week of inflows, totaling $1.75 billion, while Strategy continues to add to its BTC holdings as momentum around STRC builds. In options, spot is nearing a large month-end open interest strike, around 8,000 contracts of BTC-27MAR26-75K-C. A clean break above $75k could trigger a gamma-driven chase, though $74.5k remains the immediate hurdle with short liquidations clustered just overhead. Read more: https://lnkd.in/gPvAaNQp

We’re pleased to share that QCP is joining Canton Network as a Super Validator. As part of this, QCP will help bring institutional collateral workflows on-chain, including collateral agreements, margin allocation, confirmation and settlement across real bilateral trading relationships. We will also onboard 10 tokenized Money Market Funds, enabling RWAs to be issued, bridged and verified on Canton while supporting real network activity across trading and settlement. With initiatives like this, QCP continues to build the infrastructure that connects institutional capital with on-chain markets. We’re grateful for the support of Five North, 7RIDGE, and Digital Asset, who make our continued participation and contribution to the network possible. Learn more: https://lnkd.in/gqkY_3jy