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Space Exploration

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    $\begingroup$ Note that balls in bins isn't a good model, here. It assumes that missions were assigned to shuttles independently and uniformly at random but that defintely wasn't the case. For example, in the 100+ missions flown from 1985 onwards, there were only a handful of instances where the same shuttle flew two consecutive missions. $\endgroup$ Commented May 25, 2019 at 10:55
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    $\begingroup$ @DavidRicherby In order to head off bothersome comments like "Why do you think it is 'so frequently?'" I made a quick estimate of what "random" might look like precisely to show that the real distribution isn't random! So I think your comment misses the point. $\endgroup$ Commented May 25, 2019 at 12:19
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    $\begingroup$ But all you showed is that the distribution doesn't match a model that is already completely implausible. You don't need statistics to refute somebody who suggests "Maybe they just picked a shuttle uniformly at random, independently of any previous flights." And your refutation says nothing about a much more plausible "it's random" hypothesis such as "Maybe Mir missions just happened to be performed at times when Atlantis was the next shuttle to fly." Anyway, I don't to get into a big argument about this -- it doesn't affect the underlying question (which is a good one) or the answer (ditto). $\endgroup$ Commented May 25, 2019 at 12:58
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    $\begingroup$ @DavidRicherby I think you are reading something into the question that's not there. $\endgroup$ Commented May 25, 2019 at 14:29