John Curtice: A dismal night for Labour is certain - but whether Tories benefit is less clear
Published: 03 May 2007
Tonight is likely to be a dismal night for Labour. The party may well suffer its most serious reverses since the dark days of the 1980s. Yet just how much David Cameron will have to celebrate is far from clear.
Labour's recent record in English local elections is already very poor. Both last year and in 2004 the party scored the equivalent of 26 per cent of the nationwide vote, trailing in third place behind the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. Never before had Labour performed so poorly.
Yet the polls portend an even worse result tonight. After having already fallen in March, Labour's support in The Independent's monthly "poll of polls" has now fallen even further, to just 30 per cent, its lowest level yet in this parliament. Crucially, this means the party is down a couple of points on where it stood this time last year. If that shift is reflected in the ballot boxes today, Labour will be destined for a new low.
That would certainly result in southern discomfort. There would be little hope at all of retaining control of Plymouth, the last Labour beacon in the South-west, or of retaining control of Nottingham in the heart of "middle England". But even some of Labour's northern citadels would be at risk. Both Blackpool and Blackburn, Jack Straw's home council, would be lost to no overall control, while Oldham might even fall into the Liberal Democrats' hands.
Meanwhile, Labour's hopes of claiming at least half the seats in the Welsh Assembly look set to be dashed. Two polls published last week put the party on just 34 per cent in both the constituency and the regional vote, down six and three points respectively on its vote four years ago. The party could have just 26 seats, one fewer even than in the 1999 debacle in the principality. In that event Labour would be forced to seek the support of a coalition partner, most likely the Liberal Democrats, in order to govern.
But it is in Scotland where Labour may be heading for its worst defeat. On average three polls conducted over the past week put the party five points behind the SNP in the constituency contests, and by three points on the crucial regional vote. The narrowness of that latter lead in particular gives Labour some reason for hope that it might still narrowly escape defeat, perhaps especially if it can finally persuade its more disgruntled supporters to back the party despite their doubts. But the SNP are still favourites to come first, albeit perhaps by only a handful of seats, and so in a position to try to form a coalition that would oust Labour from power.
Labour's troubles ought to mean that Mr Cameron should be looking forward to tonight's results with eager anticipation. However, it is far from clear he will be able to demonstrate that his party has made electoral progress over the past 12 months. The Tories have themselves been on the end of some disappointing news from the polls in recent weeks. No less than four of the five regular UK-wide polls published in the past month have recorded a drop in Conservative support. The party's support in our poll of polls now stands at just 37 per cent, down two points on March - and no better than its position this time last year. Meanwhile analysis of local government by-election results by Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, of Plymouth University, suggest the Tories have been performing recently at the equivalent of just 38 per cent of the national vote. If they can do no better than that tonight, then, rather than making progress, the party will be seen to have fallen back a point or two over the past 12 months.
However, any such disappointment may well be masked. The Tories will still make gains even if they do no better than last year. This is because most of the seats up for grabs this year were last fought in 2003 when they secured no more than the equivalent of 35 per cent of the national vote. But if all the Conservatives can trumpet are gains in places such as Derby, Maidstone or Rugby which will fall easily into their lap, they will have little to celebrate. To demonstrate progress on last year the party needs to crack tougher nuts such as Ipswich, Gravesham and above all Bury, a council typical of the suburban North where so many marginal parliamentary seats lie.
Meanwhile the Tories could fail to demonstrate any progress in Scotland or Wales. Recent polls suggest the party is losing the race for second place with Plaid Cymru in Wales and that for third place with the Liberal Democrats in Scotland. Mr Cameron's attempts to revive his party may well still look tomorrow like a work in progress, not one close to completion.
John Curtice is professor of politics at Strathclyde University
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