Andrew Grice: The Week in Politics

Leadership race is between Brown and the clock

Published: 14 April 2007

What is David Miliband up to? It is the $64,000 question in British politics. He describes Gordon Brown as "an excellent prime minister-in-waiting" but he still keeps the Chancellor waiting for his final endorsement.

Brownites say that the 41-year-old Secretary of State for the Environment could have had a big job in the Chancellor's campaign team if he had ruled out standing against him when Tony Blair quits. The rumours of a Miliband challenge do not die because he does not kill them.

The only conclusion to be drawn is that Mr Miliband hasn't entirely ruled out running. That is a long way from saying he is planning to stand. I am pretty sure he is not. The last time I asked him, a couple of weeks ago, he replied that such a challenge would divide Labour and that he had no desire to launch a "kamikaze mission".

His allies insist he is not playing games or fuelling the speculation. They say his view of Mr Brown has not changed for the past three years and so he will not be bullied into changing his formula.

But some Labour MPs suspect Mr Miliband is watching and waiting in case something turns up. In other words, Mr Brown suffers a big enough calamity for Mr Miliband to argue that circumstances have changed, and he now believes it is duty to the party to run.

Mr Brown has not had a good few weeks. His Budget got mixed reviews. The disclosure that some Treasury officials warned him against his 1997 raid on pension funds has damaged him.

According to Labour MPs who campaigned this week in England, Scotland and Wales for the 3 May elections, the pensions row has "cut through" to the voters.

But a 10-year-old decision is not going to justify a change of Mr Miliband's formidable mind. Nor are Mr Brown's falling opinion poll ratings, since there is no sign yet that the Environment Secretary would do any better at a general election.

Barring an unlikely self-inflicted wound by Mr Brown, the best hope for the uber-Blairites lies in next month's elections.

As I revealed a week ago, a "blame game" between the Blair and Brown camps has broken out for what look likely to be poor Labour results in the Scottish Parliament elections.

Blairites claim Mr Brown has distanced himself from Labour's campaign in his homeland so that Mr Blair takes the rap.

Nonsense, say the Brownites. They insist their man is not taking a back seat and that Mr Blair is the main problem for Labour on the doorsteps.

If Labour loses power in Scotland, some Blairites would argue that if the Chancellor can't win in his back yard, he would never win in Middle England. But it is hard to portray the Scottish Parliament elections as a referendum on Mr Brown, and easier to argue they are the final verdict on Mr Blair.

Make-your-mind-up time for Mr Miliband will come a few days after the elections, when Mr Blair is expected to announce his resignation.

There will then be a three-day period for nominations to be made.

It is an uncomfortable time for Mr Brown. Being the front-runner in the leadership stakes is never easy. Mr Brown has been the front-runner for almost 13 years. So you can hardly blame him for wanting to make sure the prize doesn't slip from his grasp at the last minute.

The only Labour leadership race at the moment is the one between Mr Brown and the clock, and it is ticking slowly. "The only question is whether Gordon gets to Tony's resignation date without an explosion big enough to draw David Miliband in," said one senior Labour MP.

If he survives this race against time, Mr Brown may then have a bizarre race against ... no one. Michael Meacher and John McDonnell, the two left-wingers who want to stand, may not secure the necessary backing of 45 Labour MPs.

If Mr Miliband keeps out, Charles Clarke may be a last-ditch "stop Brown" candidate. He would probably get 45 signatures and, since losing his cabinet post, has mapped out his own agenda. But he would have little chance of beating Mr Brown and not all those pressing Mr Miliband to stand think Mr Clarke should run because his personal animosity to the Chancellor might turn the contest nasty.

However, opinion among Labour MPs does appear to be moving against a Brown coronation. Some think he deserves to be prime minister after waiting so long and want no part in a plot to stop him. Yet they are anxious to see Mr Brown's agenda and feel a contest would force him to spell it out in more detail than he would in a series of speeches around the country sharing a platform with ... well, no one.

Some MPs fear that a coronation would harm Labour. It is bad enough, they argue, for the next prime minister to be chosen by Labour with voters having no say. But at least they would find out more about the country's would-be leader. If there is no contest, the public might dislike what they saw as a stitch-up.

Others see no point in a potentially divisive contest where the result is a foregone conclusion. I doubt Mr Miliband will run, not least because he doesn't believe he could win. Mr Brown's long wait will soon be over.

a.grice@ independent.co.uk

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