Andrew Grice: The Week In Politics
His gambit has scuppered a Lib-Lab deal, but only for now
Published: 23 June 2007
The final hurdle on Gordon Brown's long and winding road to the premiership turned out to be a high one. The European Union summit in Brussels left Mr Brown waiting anxiously for a result back in London. "It feels more like Becher's Brook," groaned one ally.
Even to the end, the Chancellor was in the hands of the man who pipped him to the Labour leadership 13 years ago. But from next Wednesday, he will finally be the master of his own fate, and the roles of the two men who have dominated British politics since 1997 will be reversed. It will be Mr Blair's turn to sit on the sidelines.
Whatever Mr Blair's feelings about handing over to Mr Brown - and he has said remarkably little so far - in private some prominent Blairites are anxious. They fear Mr Brown will try to woo the voters by distancing himself from the Blair decade, repeating the mistake made by Al Gore, the Democratic candidate at the 2000 US election, who distanced himself from Bill Clinton and ended up, as he styles himself, "the former next President of the US".
"There is a danger that Gordon will fight the last war to show the party and progressive voters he would have done things differently," says a Blairite minister. "Most voters won't care. He's got to tell them what he'll do for them in the future."
The Brownites insist their man has no intention of "doing a Gore". They point out he has been an integral part of the Blair Government and has embraced reforms such as "personalised" public services and city academy schools.
So what can we expect from the early weeks of his government? I doubt he will try to repeat his 1997 trick by making a "big bang" announcement like granting independence to the Bank of England. If he did that, he believes, people will remember only one thing.
Instead, he will make his position clear on big issues such as health, education and foreign affairs. On other issues, such as constitutional reform, he will outline some ideas but consult widely before reaching final decisions.
What will be different from the Blair era will be his style. He believes in private that the public has tired of "President Blair". So he will create a cabinet with some new, younger faces and let his ministers get on with it, rather than micro-managing everything. He will cut the number of political advisers in No 10 and beef up the number of civil servants in the Cabinet Office, symbolising the return of cabinet government.
Blairites dismiss this as "a piece of spin" even though the Brown camp hints at giving up such tactics. Blair allies point out that the Cabinet Office has a connecting door to No 10 and that some of its officials have worked closely with Mr Brown in the Treasury. "A Prime Minister's department in all but name is being created at the Cabinet Office," claim the Blairites. To which Brownites reply: "We have had one of those inside No 10 for years."
So Mr Brown will be the same but different as he offers both continuity and change.
Perhaps Blair allies fret too much. This week Mr Brown showed he is capable of being more Blairite than Blair. His surprise offer of ministerial posts to the Liberal Democrats - and to make Paddy Ashdown his Northern Ireland Secretary - was highly significant. Especially as Mr Brown was highly sceptical (to put it politely) when Mr Blair tried to woo Lord Ashdown, then his party's leader, ahead of the 1997 election.
Although the Liberal Democrats suspect the move was a Brown trap, it appears to have been a genuine offer of partnership and a new politics. Mr Brown wanted to make a splash by including Liberal Democrats in the ministerial team he will announce on Wednesday and Thursday. Even though the Liberal Democrats (eventually) spurned his offer, he will still include a few non-Labour figures and appoint several independent experts as advisers.
In part, the offer to Sir Menzies Campbell was an insurance policy against a hung parliament: if any Liberal Democrats were already serving in a Labour government, their party would be unlikely to jump into bed with the Conservatives.
I suspect Mr Brown's other aim was to push the Tories off the political centre ground, where David Cameron has planted his tent and (unlike his three predecessors) is refusing to budge. Tony had a "big tent" but Gordon wants to build an even bigger one.
Sir Menzies' handling of Mr Brown's approach fuelled criticism of him inside his own party, where some described him as "an old man in a hurry" to get a cabinet seat. Allies insist some good came out of the crisis, as it made his fuzzy line on co-operating with other parties clearer and awakened him to the dangers of the Tories saying: "Vote Campbell, Get Brown" at the next election. But Sir Menzies is now on notice: any more flirting with Labour, and he will be in deep, deep trouble in his own party.
So all bets on a Lib-Lab deal are off - for now. What happens after the next election is an entirely different matter.
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