I write in my news column for the FT on Friday about the “Volcker rule” - Barack Obama’s attempt to repeat some kind of Glass-Steagall structural reform - that Goldman Sachs would almost certainly be caught by it, along with commercial banks.
But I had second thoughts after listening to CNBC interview with Barney Frank, chairman of the House of Representatives Financial Services Committee, and reading what my colleagues Krishna Guha and Paul Murphy had to say.
In my column, I say:
The “Volcker rule” that would not only limit proprietary trading at deposit-taking institutions but stop them from “owning, investing or sponsoring” hedge funds and private equity funds has some ambiguities.
On the face of it, it might allow holding companies such as Goldman and Morgan Stanley to evade the restrictions by shedding their relatively small deposit-taking activities.
Yet so great is the unpopularity of Goldman and Wall Street that it seems inconceivable that Congress will allow them to escape, while deposit-taking “Main Street” banks such as JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America are caught by the rule.
Mr Frank, however, was much less clear. He suggested that Goldman could escape by giving up its New York state bank charter, through which it raises retail deposits:
“With regard to Goldman, they will probably sell their bank charter and that’s an artificiality anyway. Give it up, I don’t mean sell it.”
I agree that, if Goldman has a choice between giving up its bank charter and divesting its private equity and hedge fund operations, there will be no contest. But it strikes me as extremely strange, not to say wrong in principle, that it could shrug off the rule so simply.
Goldman would, after all, remain a financial holding company, regulated by the Federal Reserve and with access to the Fed discount window in emergencies. It would also stay a systemically important financial institution (aka too big to fail), like large commercial banks.
Mr Volcker appears to be most worried about not permitting deposit-taking institutions to own “casino” operations - proprietary trading desks, hedge funds and private equity funds.
But Mr Obama clearly cast the reforms in a wider context - not allowing any institution that implicitly depends on US taxpayers for support - to take excessive risks:
“Never again will the American taxpayer be held hostage by a bank that is too big to fail . . . When banks benefit from the safety net that taxpayers provide, which includes lower-cost capital, it is not appropriate for them to turn around and use that cheap money to trade for profit.
“We cannot accept a system in which shareholders make money on these operations if a bank wins, but taxpayers foot the bill if a bank loses.”
Note that he kept referring to taxpayers, not to depositors. That did not sound like a pledge to rein in JP Morgan and Bank of America while letting Goldman and Morgan Stanley go free.
The Wall Street Journal’s story, for example, assumes that Goldman and Morgan Stanley are among the institutions affected. We shall see.