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Origin and history of probability

probability(n.)

mid-15c., probabilite, "likelihood of being realized, appearance of truth, quality of being probable," from Old French probabilite (14c.) and directly from Latin probabilitatem (nominative probabilitas) "credibility, probability," from probabilis (see probable).

Meaning "something likely to be true" is from 1570s; mathematical sense is from 1718, "frequency with which a proposition similar to the one in question is found true in the course of experience."

In weather forecasting, probabilities was used in U.S. from 1869 and adopted in the official weather forecasts of the United States Signal Service; hence Old Probabilities, a humorous name for the chief signal officer of the Signal Service Bureau (by 1875).

also from mid-15c.

Entries linking to probability

probable(adj.)

late 14c., "likely, reasonable, plausible, having more evidence for than against," from Old French probable "provable, demonstrable" (14c.), from Latin probabilis "worthy of approval, pleasing, agreeable, acceptable; provable, that may be assumed to be believed, credible," from probare "to try, to test" (see prove). As a legal term, probable cause "reasonable cause or grounds" is attested from 1670s.

Probable cause (used with reference to criminal prosecutions), such a state of facts and circumstances as would lead a man of ordinary caution and prudence, acting conscientiously, impartially, reasonably, and without prejudice, upon the facts within his knowledge, to believe that the person accused is guilty. [Century Dictionary]

Related: Probableness.

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