Who Could Replace Pope Francis After His Death?

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The Catholic Church typically elects a new Pope from among its cardinals based on the illustriousness of their careers and their professional standing, meaning that candidates are typically of advanced age as they come close to securing the most powerful position in the Christian world. Indeed, it has been more than half a millennium since the Vatican elected a Pope under the age of 50. Pope Francis was elected to the papacy in 2013 when he was 76. By the mid-2020s, when Pope Francis entered his late 80s, his health understandably grew worse, preventing him from fulfilling papal duties as he received medical treatment. This led to speculation as to who among the current generation of cardinals might be elected his successor. Any Catholic man is technically eligible to be elected Pope, though traditionally a candidate has been found among the College of Cardinals. 

Anyone who has read Robert Harris' papal thriller "Conclave" or seen the 2024 movie starring Ralph Fiennes will know that the process of choosing a new Pope, which sees cardinals go through several rounds of voting before a candidate emerges, is accompanied by a great deal of political wrangling as the Catholic Church's senior clerics jostle for their shot at the top job. As such, there are typically multiple candidates in the running for the papacy, with the will of their peers, which is shaped by the political landscape of the day as well as the connections between those voting, only becoming clear after several ballots.

During his pontificate, Pope Francis showed himself to have a liberal view of the world, speaking passionately about the duty of the church and of Christians in general to greet refugees across the world with open arms, and sharing his approval of informal blessings for gay couples, a hugely progressive move in a church which still insists that sex outside marriage is a sin. He signaled his support for civil unions among same-sex couples, and made clear his belief that humanity has a duty to combat climate change.

With the Vatican having seen a great deal of change under Pope Francis' pontificate, it may be that voters for the next Pope will seek to install a continuity candidate to carry on in the same direction. One of those to emerge among the frontrunners of progressive potential Popes is Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle. Formerly the 32nd Archbishop of Manila, the Filipino would become the first Asian Pope, and would likely continue in Pope Francis' vein in terms of support for modernizing the church's language and policies around gay Catholics. He is also progressive in his attitude toward divorcees and those who have children outside marriage. 

Italy's Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, who has been a cardinal since 2019, is another progressive frontrunner. He has previously written about making the church more welcoming to LGBT people and has been visible on the international stage as a peace envoy for the Vatican in war zones such as Ukraine.

Among Italian Catholics, there is an old saying that goes: "Seguite sempre un papa grasso con sottile," meaning "always follow a fat Pope with a skinny one." The cheeky expression has nothing to do with the pontiff's actual physical shape; instead, it is meant to suggest that cardinals voting on the next Pope ought to back a candidate who would mean political change in the Vatican.

This would mean electing a conservative figure from among the ranks of senior clerics. One of these is Cardinal Peter Erdö, a Hungarian — and friend of far-right Prime Minister Viktor Orbán – who despite his Christian faith has been a vocal opponent of providing asylum to refugees. His view of divorce is similarly hardline, believing that the process is illegitimate and that those who divorce or remarry should be excluded from blessings including Holy Communion, a central rite in Catholic Mass. American Cardinal Leo Burke, who has been a cardinal since 2010, is similarly traditionalist, rejecting progressive attitudes within the church toward divorce, contraception, and homosexuality.

Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu of the Democratic Republic of Congo is another high-profile conservative candidate, who enjoys the support of 17 African Cardinals who will be eligible to vote in the papal conclave. Busungu is notable for his opposition to providing blessings for same-sex couples. The Archbishop of Utrecht, Cardinal Willem Jacobus Eijk, is considered the most socially conservative of all the candidates and has fought against Pope Francis' liberal attitude towards civil remarriage and marriages between Catholics and Christians from other denominations.

The global political landscape of the 2020s is one of extremes, with division among commentators and voters seeing an emptying of the center ground in terms of discourse and policy. However, that does not mean that those in the papal conclave necessarily have to select a candidate from either end of the political spectrum. Cardinal Pietro Parolin is the most senior cardinal in the running, having been the secretary of state for the Vatican for 12 years. He has emerged as a moderate voice comfortable with wading into geopolitical politics, a desirable trait in an increasingly turbulent world.

In his book "The Next Pope: the Leading Cardinal Candidates," published in 2020, the National Catholic Register correspondent Edward Pentin lists 19 frontrunners for the papacy, and the field remains large five years later, even as bookies shorten their odds for certain candidates. No one will know exactly who the next Pope is until the famous white smoke signal shows that the papal conclave has made its choice.

The role of the Pope is the most powerful in the Christian world, and whoever is eventually selected will have major ramifications for the Catholic Church. Here's a glimpse into how much power the Pope actually has.