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Awards Predictions

2026 Oscar Predictions: Who Will Win at the Academy Awards?

As the 2026 Oscars race takes shape, IndieWire will provide predictions for which films, filmmakers, and stars will win Best Picture and more at the 98th Academy Awards.
A statue of the Oscar during rehearsals for the 2016 Academy Awards at the Kodak Theatre on February 27, 2016.
A statue of the Oscar during rehearsals for the 2016 Academy Awards at the Kodak Theatre on February 27, 2016
Michael Buckner/Variety
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Editor’s note: Throughout the Oscar season, IndieWire will update this page with in-depth Oscar predictions from Awards Editor Marcus Jones, Craft Editor Sarah Shachat, and Curation Editor Wilson Chapman. In addition to predictions for each category, listing the ever-changing contenders, we will be reporting on what films have captivated voters, rules changes made by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, interviews with potential nominees, and much more.

The State of the Race

Thanksgiving weekend is hardly a break for those vying for awards nominations, as the following week brings forth all sorts of events and voting deadlines. However, in the documentary world, things have long been off to the races, with Netflix film “The Perfect Neighbor” winning both Best Feature and Best Director at the Critics Choice Documentary Awards at the beginning of the month.

But critics are not the same as voters in the Academy’s Documentary branch. Since the first CCDAs in 2016, there have only been two Best Documentary Feature winners that have won the Oscar. The rest of the group’s Best Documentary Feature winners were not even nominated.

Once a darling of the category, with wins for “Icarus” and “American Factory,” Netflix has had trouble earning any Academy Award nominations for Best Documentary Feature since crowdpleaser “My Octopus Teacher” won in 2021, upsetting more highbrow contenders like “The Mole Agent” and “Time.” (Caveat: 2024 contender “To Kill a Tiger” was acquired by the streaming service after it had already been nominated.) 

Netflix should have no problem getting “The Perfect Neighbor” and Mark Obenhaus and Laura Poitras’ “Cover-Up” onto the shortlist, but when it comes time for nominations voting, the distributor keeps getting burned by the branch in a glaring way. After all, it is one thing to complain about “Will and Harper” or “American Symphony” which, despite being about several other topics, can still be described as portraits of popular entertainers, but for acclaimed films like “Daughters,” “The Remarkable Life of Ibelin,” and “Descendant” to be snubbed after being so well-received by other peer groups in the documentary world feels pointed.

The Netflix film this year that can break that unfortunate streak seems to be Petra Costa’s “Apocalypse in the Tropics,” a follow-up to her 2019 film “The Edge of Democracy” that, for American audiences at least, conveys just how much the downfall of Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro mirrored the aftermath of the 2020 elections in the United States. Recent Best Documentary Feature nominees have already leaned more international, and as a 2024 Venice Film Festival premiere, Costa’s film has had more time to campaign, and to individualize itself from Netflix, to maybe avoid the voter bias.

Ultimately, the Best Documentary Feature shortlist is one of the most unpredictable, but films like “Come See Me in the Good Light,” “The Tale of Silyan,” and “Seeds” have all fared well with all the documentary bellwethers like IDA Documentary Awards, Cinema Eye Honors, and the DOC NYC shortlist.

As for narrative films, there have not been many changes since the Governors Awards. By now, it is accepted that the trend of one Best Picture nominee per studio, with little exceptions, is most likely over. Warner Bros. Pictures is in the best shape to have both “One Battle After Another” and “Sinners” in there (though both films will have a hard fight to get all the acting nominations they want). Netflix and Neon both have “Frankenstein” and “Sentimental Value,” respectively, but the former is stuck figuring out if Hollywood story “Jay Kelly” or critical darling “Train Dreams” is more viable, while the latter is suffering from success, with both Palme d’Or winner “It Was Just an Accident” and “The Secret Agent,” from reigning Best International Feature champ Brazil, making super strong cases for a nomination.

Focus Features could be among this crowd too, as “Hamnet” is one of the main Best Picture frontrunners, especially after collecting a string of Audience Awards at several fall film festivals including TIFF, but the distributor’s other contender “Bugonia” is just too much of a wild card. Yes, the last Yorgos Lanthimos film to be nominated for Best Picture overperformed, but is it maybe too soon for that to happen again? Jesse Plemons is a former Oscar nominee, and Emma Stone is one of the few to win Best Actress twice, but the field for both categories are so stacked that it would not necessarily be an outrage if neither were to be nominated.

Also related to “Bugonia,” the November box office has not been as disastrous as the October box office was for awards contenders, so one of the other recent takeaways is that a later release date may be back in vogue.

Animation Analysis

After a relatively thin year for major animated releases, November finally introduces a major entry into the Best Animated Feature race with “Zootopia 2.” The Disney feature, a sequel to the 2016 hit, arrives to a small field as one of the biggest contenders right off the bat, based largely on the strength of its Oscar-winning predecessor. But can it repeat the success of the original and take home another trophy for the mouse?   

Traditionally, the Academy has been amenable to sequels in the Animated feature category — as long as they’re sequels to “Toy Story,” with both the third and fourth entries into Pixar’s flagship series winning the category. Other follow-up films tend to get nominations but come up short in favor of something newer and shinier, including “Shrek 2,” “Incredibles 2,” “Inside Out 2,” and most recently “Across the Spider-Verse,” which lost to “The Boy and the Heron” in a major surprise during the 2024 ceremony. Still, “Zootopia 2” has a lot going for it, including the breakout success of the original (one of Disney’s highest-grossing properties,) the return of most of its key creative team, and an unrivaled niche as the big kid-friendly release of the Thanksgiving weekend.  

Also helping out “Zootopia 2” is that the competition is relatively weak, with only one major obstacle in its way. The bad news is that that obstacle is a massive one. With “KPop Demon Hunters” reigning supreme as the animated film story of the year, the race seems to be between Huntr/x and Judy Hopps for Oscar glory. —Wilson Chapman on 11/19/25

Craft Analysis

The reaction to “Wicked: For Good” during the week of its premiere hasn’t been particularly great across its Metacritic page or elsewhere on the internet, but maybe that doesn’t matter. Now that we’re into the 4:30 p.m. darkness of late November, it is the time when the craft team must wade through black waves of despair in our souls to distinguish between the front-running films that have so much lavish craft in them they’re kind of critic-proof and the films that might fold under a bad reaction, if one comes — maybe it’s me, I’m the problem, it’s me.

“Wicked: For Good” is still going to walk away with a hefty nominations haul; there’s no way that it won’t. But now that the festivals are wrapped, the bitter winter cold seems to be looking slightly rosier for the crafts of “Frankenstein” and “Sinners.”  

The former has gotten pretty good traction on Netflix, with lots of praise rightly being centered on the rich visual worldbuilding; the fact that these aspects of the film are being championed by director Guillermo Del Toro while also trashing AI every chance he gets only adds to the story of how much craft went into the making of “Frankenstein” — craft that is visible on the screen, because it’s not lost in endless shallow-focus medium shots that don’t look like anything at all. Cough. Anyway, “Sinners” is also in a decent spot for a film that came out in April, and the positive reception to the madcap “Marty Supreme” might earn it some nods as well. 

But Academy voters may love nothing in the world so well as “Hamnet.” The praise for the Chloé Zhao film has been nigh-universal, and while it’s mostly focused above the line, that kind of acclaim inevitably makes it down to the groundling head of departments who brought the world of the film to life. If its momentum continues at the same pitch after release, it may well end up with default nomination spots in a lot of craft categories. Then again, so may the also nigh-universally-beloved “One Battle After Another.” We shall see which of them stands when the hurly-burly’s done. —Sarah Shachat on 11/19/25

The 98th Oscars telecast will be broadcast on Sunday, March 15 and air live on ABC at 7:00 p.m. ET/ 4:00 p.m. PT. See the full list of predictions below, which will be refreshed throughout the race, and follow IndieWire on X, Instagram, and Facebook for all the latest Oscars news.

Potential nominees are listed in alphabetical order; no film will be deemed a frontrunner until we have seen it. “Time Will Tell” refers to films that have not yet screened for critics and/or are without distribution.

Additional category predictions to be announced.

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