Marc Busch

💡Emerging GP Fundraising Insight #8: Rolling Closes Keep You Moving Small funds can't always afford to sit still until the target is hit. Rolling closes let you start deploying earlier, build a track record, and show momentum to prospective LPs. One GP told me that for Fund I ($5M target), he took capital as it came, signed, wired, and got to work. It wasn't perfect, but it kept the lights on and the deals moving. Sometimes the "sign and wire as it comes" approach is the only way to get moving. Takeaway: Momentum is a fundraising asset and rolling closes can help you keep it. Has anyone here used rolling closes as a strategic advantage?

29

13 Comments

How The $100k H-1B Shock Has Renewed the Case for Global-First Teams. My latest piece: As of Sept 21, new H-1B petitions carry a $100,000 fee and selection rules tilt toward higher-paid roles. The cap is still 65k + 20k, and ~70–75% of visas go to India. Median H-1B comp sits near $120k—meaning the fee ≈ a year’s salary for many first-time filings. Implication: the “win the H-1B lottery, relocate the hire” playbook is now higher cost, slower, and riskier. The durable response is global-first hiring with surgical U.S. sponsorship. Operator playbook: 1️⃣ Default global: eng, data, design, QA, finance ops, CS. Structure 4–6 hrs overlap + explicit async norms. 2️⃣ Use visas tactically: nearshore hubs (Toronto, London, Dubai/CDMX/ Bogotá), L-1 after building abroad, cap-exempt H-1B, O-1 for outliers, TN/E-3, and F-1/OPT bridges. 3️⃣ AI-amplify output: standardized copilots, code assistants, model-driven QA; govern prompts, data boundaries, and access. 4️⃣ Institutionalize culture: decision logs, crisp specs, cadence rituals; periodic in-person sprints. 5️⃣ Measure what matters: velocity, cycle time, escaped defects, features shipped, COGS/feature, NRR, CSAT—normalized by fully loaded cost. Startups vs. incumbents: Mega-caps can absorb six-figure visa capex for a few roles; startups generally can’t. Expect concentration at incumbents unless early-stage teams globalize now. Board/LP checklist: 1️⃣ Global hiring map + immigration spend policy (including when not to file). 2️⃣ Quarterly output-per-dollar dashboard. 3️⃣ Bench across Canada/Mexico/EU/LatAm/India + continuity plan if U.S. filings slip. Bottom line: Treat H-1B as scarce capex. Reserve it for revenue-proximate roles; build the rest of your team globally. Would love to hear from fellow travel warriors and globally-minded investors Marvin Liao Asher Siddiqui Bill Reichert Steve Goldberg Hans Tung Jenny Lee Anu Hariharan Shailendra J Singh Niklas Zennström Danny Rimer Fabrice Grinda Tom Stafford and Reshma Sohoni to get their takes. 🔗 Full analysis: https://lnkd.in/gi_BYhUs #H1B #GlobalHiring #Startups #VentureCapital #ImmigrationPolicy #RemoteWork #AI

7

Company building in energy is shaped by early decisions that compound over time—how capital is structured, how technical risk is absorbed, and how teams prepare for scale well before it arrives.    Much of my work with founders centers on navigating those choices as deep science becomes real businesses. The details differ across power, materials, and industrial systems, but the challenge is consistent: building companies that can operate, adapt, and grow over long horizons.  You can see that work taking shape across the Breakthrough Energy portfolio. https://lnkd.in/eXd72trE

88

4 Comments

“Small, independent firms with excellent people focused on a well-defined market segment provide the highest likelihood of achieving excellent results.” That’s David Swensen — who seeded Hillhouse with $25M, a fund that went on to return $1.3B to Yale. Emerging managers are sticking around. Their share of capital has risen to 39% (from 29% in 2024). Most of that capital I've seen is going to teams spun out of established firms. The advantages are: – Grit, no Plan B, point to prove. – Smaller funds, tighter alignment, competitive pricing. The broader fundraising market is still brutal. Still concentrated. But as ever, the strongest emerging managers are breaking through. Swensen had it right. Back the ones with alignment, hunger, and a point to prove. #VC #venturecapital

93

2 Comments

An example of the extending timelines in venture capital can be observed in successful exits. Historically, these exits averaged around 7 years. However, over the last decade, as captains of the capital markets have shifted their view more towards private ownership, this timeline has now extended well beyond 7 years. For further insights, you can check the recent investment round by Waymo, which raised USD 16 billion. Now tracking 15 years in the making... https://lnkd.in/gFkPtZYx

4

2 Comments

Capital Defense Technologies is excited to announce its inaugural portfolio company investment from its new Seed fund into Antaris Space. Antaris is a fast-growing software and AI platform that supports mission-critical space operations for government and enterprise clients in the U.S. and globally. We look forward to working with CEO Tom Barton and his talented team in the rapidly expanding space ecosystem to help accelerate their platform to provide virtualization, modeling, and simulation for satellites, spacecraft, and space systems. As a Texas-registered venture capital firm, CDT invests in early-stage companies in national security, defense, and intelligence focused on AI, autonomy, space, integrated sensing, and other critical technologies to address advanced global threats.

104

19 Comments

Impact Platform: Rise IV saw a first close in 1Q, raising $925mn of capital - though prior vintage step-down is slated for 2Q which will drag on FPAUM / fee rate in the quarter, partially offset by continued flows into the new vintage. In the Climate funds, TPG has raised ~$9bn across climate strategies (TRC II, Global South and related vehicles), including ~$300mn raised post-quarter end so far in 2Q. Management expects final closes here in 3Q.

2

Very interesting, data-driven paper on fund size growth. As capital concentrates with top performing managers, fund size growth (and related, product/AUM expansion) continues to be one of the most frequently debated risk factors in PE. #SmallBuyouts #MidMarketBuyouts #MakeHardCapsHardAgain

25

1 Comment

Thrilled to back Jack Cable and Corridor as they raise Series A! Security has always slowed development down – Corridor flips that. They're helping teams ship AI-generated code faster and more securely. More here: https://lnkd.in/eaKnh-4Q

20

We started Transition Ventures with a simple idea: the future of venture would look very different from the past. The most important companies would be those that rearrange the physical world, not just pixels on a screen. Today, we're announcing that we've closed Transition Fund II at above our $150m target! There are a lot of people to thank, but we're especially grateful to the founders that chose to partner with us: James at OLIX and Stu at Seneca - where we were lucky to be in the first venture round, or Toussaint and Stephane at Upway - who allowed us to join their journey even though they had no need for more capital. We're also grateful to our investors, who believed in us despite the changing political situation. They saw the same thing we hear from our founders every day: people talk less about climate now, but there is more demand for their solutions than ever. As part of the new fund, we want to partner with founders as early as possible. If you want to build something in the physical world and think you’re a good fit for us, please reach out! Story from Bloomberg in the comments Ari Helgason Clara Ricard David Helgason Tom Burkinshaw David Pacák Rachel S. Gabbi Papadopoulos

90

19 Comments

Hexcel Adds Independent Director in Deal With Activist Investor "Hexcel added a new independent director to its board in a move that avoids a potential proxy fight for the aerospace materials company with activist investor Vision One Fund. "As part of an agreement between the two sides, Vision One will withdraw their nominees to the board that were to be voted on at the company's annual shareholder meeting. Vision One will also support Hexcel's board nominees, and agree to certain standstill restrictions and mutual non-disparagement provisions, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Wednesday. "The new director, former Kaman Chief Executive Officer Neal Keating, was appointed effective Tuesday." Keating's experience in aerospace may make him an ideal director choice. Yet from a bigger picture perspective, I wonder if this settlement is the right move for investors. More and more activist campaigns are settling rather than running the full process of a proxy fight with typically a greater number of directors nominated by the activist. Hopefully, activists are becoming like the public company boards they battle, i.e. more focused on reaching consensus than big results. #governancearbitrage #proxyfights #corporategovernance #activistinvesting #valuecreation https://lnkd.in/gazBUGFp

4

Before the ink could dry on this latest Insights piece on how deal making is shaping the future competitive landscape of AI, the two power houses, Nvidia and Open AI, set a new high water mark with Monday's $100 billion announcement. This was shortly followed by yesterday's Apple-Intel announcement, with its own AI angle. Click through to see how we have built up to these notable headlines. Following is a teaser on what is inside: The AI Nation is Coming   According to Anthropic CEO, Dario Amodei, AI will be like an entirely new state of geniuses appearing on the global stage by 2027.   This isn't sci-fi speculation. It's happening now, and the numbers are staggering: -$100B+ in VC funding flowed into AI in 2024 alone -$300B projected Hyperscaler AI infrastructure spend in 2025 -$10 trillion potential contribution to global GDP   The race is intensifying: -OpenAI's $40B private market raise shattered Saudi Aramco's public market record -Anthropic tripled its valuation from $61B to $183B valuation in 6 months -Meta pivoted from "build for the future" to "buy for the future" with Scale AI -Even rivals like Meta & Alphabet are forming $10B partnerships   But here's the question keeping us up at night:   How do we balance fiduciary duty to generate returns with responsibility for the societal transformation we're funding? The companies we back today aren't just building products—they're architecting the foundational systems that will potentially govern commerce, creativity, and human interaction for decades. This isn't just about claiming territory. We're literally building new continents. The future isn't coming. It's being constructed right now, one billion-dollar deal at a time.   What role should investors play in shaping this "AI nation"? 🤔 Read my full analysis on how private markets are navigating the most transformational innovation cycle in history: https://lnkd.in/eTrHpE_k before-the-future-interpreting-the-present-state-of-artificial-intelligence-in-private-markets/ #AI #PrivateMarkets #VentureCapital #Innovation

76

2 Comments

At Provest Equity Partners, we focus on building enduring platforms at the intersection of industrial scale, advanced technology, and responsible innovation. Our work with Advanced Process Solutions (APS) reinforced a core belief: value is created when operational rigor meets mission-critical manufacturing. That same philosophy continues to guide our portfolio construction as we expand into businesses enabling more efficient, lower-impact production models across industrial and energy-adjacent markets. We are now preparing to onboard our next platform investment—one that reflects where long-term capital is increasingly converging: materials, manufacturing, and energy-enabled technologies that deliver both commercial durability and structural relevance for the future economy. As operator-investors, we commit capital patiently and partner deeply with management teams to scale responsibly, allocate capital prudently, and compound value over time. We’re excited about the road ahead and appreciative of the continued trust from our LPs and partners. More to come. #ProvestEquity #OperatorInvestor #GrowthEquity #IndustrialTechnology #AdvancedManufacturing #SustainableInnovation #EnergyTransition #PlatformInvesting #LongTermCapital #PrivateMarkets

49

3 Comments

This week in venture deals that matter for America (#AmTech): Saronic Technologies raised $1.75 billion in Series D funding at a $9.25 billion valuation led by Kleiner Perkins, with participation from Advent International, Bessemer Venture Partners, DFJ Growth, BAM Elevate, 8VC, Caffeinated Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, Elad Gil, and Franklin Templeton. Saronic designs and mass-manufactures autonomous surface vessels for the U.S. Navy and other defense customers. The Navy wants to make half its surface fleet unmanned, and last year awarded Saronic a $392 million production contract for its 24-foot Corsair, an unmanned vessel that costs under $2 million and can carry heavy payloads up to 1,000 nautical miles. Founders: Dino Mavrookas, Vibhav A., Doug Lambert, Rob Lehman. ThinkLabs AI, Inc. raised $28 million in Series A funding led by Energy Impact Partners, with participation from nVentures (NVIDIA), Edison International, GE Vernova, Powerhouse Ventures, Active Impact Investments, Blackhorn Ventures, Amplify Capital, and a large North American utility. ThinkLabs builds physics-informed AI "grid twin" models that help electric utilities plan and operate power grids under rising demand. Its platform can simulate 10 million grid scenarios in under 10 minutes, work that used to take engineers days or weeks. As AI data centers put new strain on the American grid, utilities need better tools to figure out where they can add load without breaking things. Founder: Josh Wong. NomadicML raised $8.4 million in funding led by TQ Ventures, with participation from Pear VC, Jeff Dean, Scott Wu and other angels and executives. Nomadic builds a spatial intelligence and visual data engine that turns raw video from autonomous vehicles and robots into structured datasets, edge case detection, and training data. As American companies race to put autonomous systems on roads and factory floors, Nomadic helps their engineering teams learn from real-world data faster. Founders: Mustafa Bal, Varun Krishnan. #VC #Startups #VentureCapital #DefenseTech #Energy #Grid #Robotics #Autonomy #AI

27

3 Comments

🚀 Early-Stage VC Is Shifting: Bigger Seed Rounds, But Fewer Graduates 🚀 I've been following the latest Aumni data closely, and the trends in early-stage venture capital are becoming increasingly pronounced: Seed deal sizes are climbing—the top quartile is now surpassing $7M. The number of deals is contracting: We're seeing fewer seed rounds, and an even steeper drop in the number of startups progressing to Series A. Graduation rates from Seed to Series A have sharply fallen—from 41% for companies seeded in Q3 2020 to just 12% in Q1 2023. There’s been a slight uptick, but it’s still far below historic norms. It's clear to me: the environment is more selective and demanding than ever. Startups may secure bigger funding rounds, but only if they meet increasingly high benchmarks. Progressing to the next stage is taking longer, and the “spray and pray” approach is quickly becoming a thing of the past. 🔮 My Prediction: In this environment, founders who can balance bold vision with operational excellence will pull ahead. At Jet Ventures, we're betting on teams who leverage knowledge, data, and AI in their respective domains and laser-focused on execution—especially those building innovative solutions in industrial and tech-heavy sectors. Going forward: Demonstrable product-market fit and clear, tangible progress will set the top startups apart. VCs with real operator experience and industry expertise—like our team at Jet Ventures—are in the best position to support and guide the next generation of champions, particularly in Central Europe. For both founders and investors, it’s a time for disciplined execution and outsized ambition. #VentureCapital #Startups #SeedStage #SeriesA #InvestmentTrends #JetVentures #VCInsights https://lnkd.in/eHHcXyUi

8

South Florida's climatetech startups in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale metro area have made significant strides, raising $391.3 million across 11 VC deals in the first half of 2025. This achievement already surpasses the total funding of $320.4 million from 27 deals in all of 2024, as highlighted in Emerge Americas' report. In response to this growing momentum, Mana Tech is launching the Climate Tech Scale-Up Program 2025. This unique 5-week hybrid program is designed for growth-stage companies focused on addressing the world's most pressing climate challenges. Key features of the program include: - Global Testbed for Technology: Miami's distinct geology and climate provide an ideal environment to validate technologies that tackle climate issues. - Risk & Resilience: Solutions developed here can serve as blueprints for coastal cities worldwide, from Singapore to Rio de Janeiro. - Sustainability: Participants will refine circular economy models adaptable to various urban settings. - Global Viability: Success in Miami signals to international investors and customers that your technology is robust and ready for global deployment. The program will run virtually from November 3 to 28, culminating in a high-impact, in-person week in Miami from December 1 to 5. Learn more and apply: https://lnkd.in/eW28CJ4D For further insights, check out the Emerge Americas report: https://lnkd.in/e9f2m2FF

19

1 Comment

This week in #AmTech: Heron Power raised $140 million in Series B funding co-led by Andreessen Horowitz's American Dynamism Fund and Breakthrough Energy Ventures, with participation from Capricorn Investment Group, Energy Impact Partners, Gigascale Capital, and Valor Atreides AI Fund. Heron Power develops solid-state transformers that replace legacy grid infrastructure, consolidating inverters, rectifiers, and transformers into a single software-regulated system capable of handling up to five megawatts per unit. By removing one of the biggest bottlenecks in connecting AI data centers, solar farms, and battery storage to the grid, Heron Power is helping America accelerate in the AI race and do it sustainably. Founder: Drew Baglino. CryoBio raised $1.3 million in pre-seed funding from Marble, AgVenture Alliance, New York Ventures, Launch NY, FuzeHub, Klessig Trust, and Jade Cove Partners. CryoBio uses precision fermentation to produce antifreeze molecules inspired by cold-adapted animals, delivering them to farmers as a sprayable treatment that shields high-value crops like apples and grapes from frost damage for up to two weeks. By giving growers a scalable biological tool to protect against unpredictable freezes, CryoBio reduces costly crop losses. Founder: Murli Manohar. Seasats raised $20 million in Series A funding led by Konvoy, with participation from Shield Capital, DNS Capital, Techstars, Tanis Venture Management, Crumpton Ventures, Dorado Group, and other strategic investors. Seasats builds small, solar-electric uncrewed surface vessels for defense, commercial, and scientific maritime missions. giving the United States affordable, persistent ocean surveillance and reconnaissance capability without putting sailors at risk. Founders: Mike Flanigan, Dylan Rodriguez, and Max Kramers. #VC #Startups #VentureCapital #AI #Energy #DataCenters #AgTech #DefenseTech #Drones

26

1 Comment