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We refresh our views on the 6 Ps driving AI/data center power demand growth -- Pervasiveness, Productivity, Price, Policy, Parts and People. Pervasiveness: Compute and power intensity per server for inference likely to rise. Based on our TMT team's outlook, our inference forecasts reflect an increase in power intensity, though overall we are still largely assuming lower-power servers are deployed. As hyperscaler AI investment accelerates, there is a more intense focus on AI use cases and their value relative to invested capital. Productivity: While integrating increased deployment of latest Vera Rubin generation of servers improves energy efficiency via greater compute per unit of power, this is offset by higher industry demand outlook as compute/token demand remains pent-up. Price: Hyperscaler commentary, budget increases and contracting suggest willingness to pay Green Reliability Premiums to ensure diverse sourcing of long-term power supply. Policy: Increased popular concerns that data centers are driving Affordability/Reliability risks are likely to remain elevated, prompting increased push among data center power consumers, policymakers and power producers towards contracts that attempt to ring-fence data center buildout from impacting broader customer Affordability and Reliability. Parts: Constraints in timing/availability of power generation equipment continues to drive how data center power will be sourced as part of an overall all-in strategy -- renewables/battery storage/simple cycle natural gas in the shorter term, natural gas combined cycle in the medium term, nuclear in the longer term. People: We continue to see risks that skilled labor availability constraints -- particularly electricians -- represents a key risk to execution. This is also, in our view, helping to drive greater consideration for behind-the-meter power solutions that require less electricity transmission. As mentioned in our data center power demand note, the increase in our Utilities team's US outlook is driven by BTM solutions.
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