14 Restaurant Chains In Danger Of Major Price Increases

The first few months of 2025 have been nothing short of dizzying in terms of world events. When it comes to the restaurant industry, a host of factors have made doing business as usual something of a nightmare. Between supply chain disruptions, climate and agricultural challenges (including ongoing concerns over the bird flu), rising labor costs, inflation, and tariffs, being a restaurant owner has meant making some hard decisions about the bottom line.

While most experts agree that these factors have disproportionately impacted smaller mom-and-pop restaurants that operate on slim margins, all restaurants face price hikes on food, beverages, tableware, kitchen equipment, packaging, and utilities. Though some restaurants can absorb modest increases, restaurants typically strive to keep prices low to drive consumer traffic, which the National Restaurant Association notes has never fully recovered to levels from before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Further disruptions to the cost of doing business may result in price increases that might impact your favorite restaurant chains. Let's take a look at which of these could be in danger of these price jumps and what specific factors may driving them. 

Waffle House has been welcoming customers 24-hours-a-day with open arms since its first location opened in Georgia in 1955. Since then it has remained a popular fixture in the lives of Americans, growing to more than 1,900 locations in 25 states. The chain serves an astronomical number of eggs every year, to the tune of roughly 272 million. This eggcellent reputation for eggs has become its main achilles heel in the past year.

In February, the chain announced a "temporary surcharge" of $0.50 per egg. While this can partially be attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic and inflation, the real culprit was a resurgence of the bird flu, which has impacted nearly 30 million laying hens in 2025 alone, according to Nerdwallet. Though there appears to have been a lull in this problem, concerns still exist over a re-emergence of the virus.

Additionally, with a shortage of eggs in the U.S., imports have increased from countries like Turkey, Brazil, South Korea, and Mexico, which are facing tariffs of varying percentages. Should these tariffs remain in place or be increased, they are poised to make an already bad situation worse for the chain.

Another restaurant chain that has already seen serious price increases over the past five years, and is poised to continue doing so, is IHOP. The International House of Pancakes, or IHOP for short, has been serving hungry customers since its first location opened in Los Angeles in 1958. Though it has enjoyed immense success, Finance Buzz reports that the chain has seen a striking 82% average price increase since 2020 — the highest among the 16 chains included in its study.

Again, while the COVID-19 pandemic and inflation are partially responsible for the huge increase, the fact that the chain also relies upon eggs for many of its recipes is likely another culprit for the astronomical price hikes. Now IHOP faces new pressures attributed to the tariffs introduced by the Trump administration. While these seem to be fluctuating daily, breakfast staples like coffee, spices, vanilla, and produce are all likely to be impacted, further driving up average menu prices and increasing the list of items you may want to avoid eating there.

Coffee is big business in the U.S. According to the USDA, the U.S. ranks second in overall coffee imports globally, with 80% of unroasted coffee beans being sourced from Latin America. When it comes to coffee brands, Starbucks leads the market with roughly $27.5 billion in annual sales.

Starbucks has already been experiencing pressure to adapt due to coffee prices reaching a 47-year high. As demand increases, supply remains low. Climate change-driven weather disruptions have limited the amount of coffee being exported by heavy hitters, like Brazil and Colombia, while concerns continue to mount over the impending EU Deforestation Directive (EUDR). Now, tariffs threaten to further drive the cost of coffee beans up, making it even more difficult for retailers, like Starbucks, to maintain their current prices.

Starbucks has already decided to remove nearly 30% of its menu items to streamline the menu and make way for innovation in hopes of capturing consumer interest. It has also recently announced a change in its open-door policy, meaning that Starbucks is no longer a free office space for those who aren't buying anything, further indicating a shift in market strategies.

P.F. Chang's is the leading regional and global restaurant chain in the U.S. with annual sales of almost $1 billion. Though a chain this size is better poised to resist market pressures that typically drive costs up and force smaller restaurants to shutter their doors, even they face the possibility of major price increases due to tariffs. A lot of this has to do with the type of menu served at P.F. Chang's, which relies heavily on specialty foods that are imported, particularly those coming from China, which are currently subject to a 145% tariff, per USA Today. Even with modest baseline tariffs of 10%, products like rice, seafood, meat, produce, tea, spices, and specialty condiments like soy sauce are all likely to cost more and add to the bottom line.

P.F. Chang's also offers an extensive beer, wine, and spirits list. While some of these are sourced domestically, many, like its vast selection of sake and Asian beers, are subject to at least a 10% tariff, making the profit margin on alcohol sales far less impressive. The average profit margin on alcohol sales is just under 80%. This means either the chain eats the added costs or adjusts average pricing accordingly, to bridge the gap.

Known for its unlimited breadsticks and salad, Olive Garden has been serving up quality Italian-inspired dishes at affordable prices since its first location opened in Orlando, Florida in 1982. While the chain has historically been able to keep its prices so low by using the cheapest ingredients, this hasn't spared it from recent market pressures. Per Finance Buzz, between 2020 and 2025, Olive Garden has seen an average price increase of 30%, with its largest single-item increase being its popular Chicken Alfredo. With looming tariffs, these price increases will likely worsen, particularly on those menu items featuring meat, seafood, and imported items like Italian olive oil and Parmesan cheese.

Olive Garden has also long boasted a robust wine program, which has garnered the chain a number of awards, including America's Best Casual Dining Wine List from the Monterey Wine Festival. While it does offer domestic wines, many of its wines are sourced internationally, which means that maintaining a healthy stock of libations has suddenly become much more expensive due to tariffs. While this might be mitigated by shifting inventory to include more domestic products, if the chain seeks to retain its international catalog of offerings, it may need to adjust prices accordingly.

Among the many things you may not have known about Chipotle is that the chain uses an astronomical number of avocados to produce its vats of guacamole. According to Nasdaq, the chain blows through 35 million pounds of the fruit annually, which is roughly 97,000 daily. The majority of its avocados are sourced from Mexico and California.

Around 90% of the avocados consumed domestically are imported, with Mexico responsible for 88% of those. Though Mexican avocados are currently not subject to a tariff, as they fall under the umbrella of items protected by the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA), any changes to this may be devastating.

Because they're highly perishable and Mexico corners the market on them, the cost of avocados could skyrocket should current tariff rates be augmented or items currently exempt from tariffs under the USMCA be made subject to them. This means either Chipotle would need to cut back on its guacamole production or up its prices to accommodate the increase. Other areas of concern for Chipotle include imported produce like meat, seafood, and spices, which form the basis of its menu.

No stranger to market pressures and debacles, among the more interesting facts about Red Lobster is that its Endless Shrimp promotion nearly destroyed the restaurant chain, costing the company $11 million dollars and forcing it to shutter 99 locations beginning in May of 2024. Moreover, poor management decisions, failure to evolve, supply chain issues, inflation, and the COVID-19 pandemic have all led to the company seeing an average price increase of 34% since 2020.

All of this is bad news for a company that has been flirting with bankruptcy and is already in a vulnerable position, but Red Lobster has an additional liability. It relies on fresh seafood, most of which is sourced internationally. According to the USDA, 80% of the seafood eaten in the U.S. is imported, mostly from Canada, Chile, India, Indonesia, and Vietnam. This means that additional tariffs levied on imports could be the proverbial nail in the coffin for the company. While they may not force all locations to shutter their doors, they will likely drive average prices up further, creating an even more inhospitable environment for a company that's already struggling to lure diners in.

Among the things you may not know about Benihana is that it was the first teppanyaki-style restaurant in the U.S. Since 1964, the brand has grown to include 79 locations. The secret to its success is that diners get both dinner and a show for one price at the restaurant. While this may seem like good value, the price for this all-inclusive experience may soon be subject to some hefty increases due to tariffs, especially those being levied on China. Tariffs on specialty foods sourced from Asian countries, like sauces and spices, are the most likely to contribute to cost disruptions at Benihana. Other culprits of potential price increases include imported seafood, meat, and produce.

While it may seem that rice would be problematic, considering the amount of fried rice the chain produces annually, the restaurant chain sources this from California, rather than internationally. That said, the USDA reports that roughly 25% of the rice consumed in the U.S. is imported. Aromatic varieties, like jasmine and basmati, represent 60% of these, the majority of which come from Thailand, India, and Pakistan. Restaurants serving these may find themselves in a bind, either having to alter their recipes to accommodate domestic varieties of rice or increasing costs to offset the tariffs.

Since opening its first location at the Glendale Galleria in 1983, Panda Express has become the most popular Chinese restaurant and the largest family-owned and operated Asian dining concept in the U.S. This popularity has largely been attributed to its constant innovation and adaptability in the face of an ever-changing market. If there is a chain that is poised to endure ongoing changes in the market, like tariffs, it is this one.

That said, despite this resiliency, Panda Express faces a lot of the same issues as other Asian-inspired eateries in terms of sourcing specialty, imported food items — the fresh produce, like shrimp, meat, sauces, and spices, that are used in its wok-created recipes, as these may become more challenging and expensive to obtain. Furthermore, according to the University of Michigan, the rise in anti-Chinese sentiment, which is reflected by the 145% tariff levied on the country by the Trump administration, threatens to slow the growth of Asian-owned businesses, which may further impact prices moving forward.

The Dunkin Corporation has undergone a number of changes since opening its first location, known as the Open Kettle, in Quincy, Massachusetts in 1948. Not only was its name something completely different, this chain used to be better known for its donuts than its coffee. This shape-shifting image may be its greatest superpower and its undoing in terms of potential price increases.

As the chain has refocused its attention to coffee, it has gone head-to-head with other giants, like Starbucks. It's now considered the second most ubiquitous coffee chain in the U.S. As previously noted, coffee chains are seeing unique stressors to their bottom line by virtue of the products they sell. Less than 1% of the coffee sold in the U.S. is produced domestically, with a vast majority of it hailing from Brazil and Colombia. This means that any tariffs on these countries will necessarily result in price increases.

Additionally, as reported by CBS News, coffee prices were already at an all-time high before the tariffs, topping out at $7.38 per pound, because of issues relating to climate events dwindling the supply chain and causing shortages. Any added stressors from tariffs will simply continue driving prices up further.

McDonald's hides many company secrets, and one is that the company sources a lot of its beef internationally. It has had a lengthy relationship with global food supplier OSI, which was responsible for helping the brand continue to develop beyond U.S. borders. This global domination may have been what made McDonald's a household name, but it is also its greatest liability when it comes to market disruptions, like tariffs.

The chain has already come under fire in the 2020s, for menu price hikes that seemed to be disproportionate to inflation and rising operational costs. Prices have increased by 40% since 2019, while corporate profits continue to skyrocket, leaving consumers wondering what gives. New tariffs will simply exacerbate an already delicate situation. The vast majority of the beef exported to the U.S. by countries like Australia makes its way into McDonald's burgers, which means even a 10% baseline tariff on the nation could make that Big Mac that much less affordable.

Among the fast food chains that have already been seeing their fair share of woes, which only stand to worsen due to tariffs, is Subway. The company called what was described as an emergency meeting with franchisees in August of 2024, as sales continued to decline. The plummeting sales have been attributed to a number of factors, including deep discounting of popular items, rising costs, and increased competition from a host of other popular sandwich chains.

The tariffs that could impact the chain the most would be those levied on Canada and Mexico; Canada is a top supplier of baked goods, beef, and some kinds of oil, while Mexico is a hotbed for produce. While the 25% tariffs on these countries currently exclude these items, which are protected under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, changes to these tariffs could prove devastating, forcing franchises to increase prices or close their doors.

What's more, the cost of food packaging, which is integral to fast food chains like Subway, is likely to increase due to tariffs, particularly those on the Asia-Pacific region, which leads the market in global food packaging production. This rise in packaging costs is likely to be passed along to consumers rather than absorbed by an already struggling restaurant chain.

Tim Hortons represents a unique perspective when it comes to restaurants. The Canadian-born chain, which serves coffee, baked goods, and sandwiches, currently has over 650 locations in the U.S. Its secret to success has long been the quality of its coffee and egg-based breakfast items.

Like most other coffee chains, Tim Hortons sources its beans from countries like Colombia and Guatemala. These beans are subsequently roasted in one of two roastery locations, one in Ancaster, Ontario and the other in Rochester, New York. Though coffee imported from Canada is currently protected against tariffs under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, if purchased from Colombia or Guatemala and brought to the U.S. for roasting, it's subject to the baseline 10% tariff imposed on those nations, which could potentially mean a more expensive cup of Joe.

Additionally, Tim Hortons prides itself on the fact that it serves fresh 100% Canadian eggs. These eggs are sourced in partnership with the Egg Farmers of Canada and are Egg Quality Assurance (EQA) certified. Again, eggs are currently protected under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, and therefore are not subject to tariffs, but, should these protections be lifted, this could spell a huge price increase on any egg-based breakfast items served by the chain.

When your business model relies on imported high-end ingredients, you can bet that tariffs are bad news for your bottom line. This is the uncomfortable position that the famous Melting Pot finds itself in. This chain features a multi-course fondue experience that relies on imported cheese and an extensive selection of wine and craft beer, a lot of which is sourced from the European Union, which is currently subject to a 10% baseline tariff.

For example, its Classic Alpine Fondue and Aged Cheddar & Gouda Fondue, which it also sells in at-home packages, feature an exclusive blend of cheeses that are produced in Switzerland. The restaurant also offers an extensive array of European-sourced cured meats as an accompaniment to its fondue, all of which are subject to baseline tariffs. While this restaurant is already considered a special night out, its existing robust price tag for a four-course meal for two, which can run over $100, depending on location, is poised to get even higher if tariffs continue or are elevated.