In this week’s Economist/YouGov poll:

• Democrats lead a week before Election Day

• Two-thirds of Republicans think there will be enough voter fraud to determine control of Congress

• Most registered voters disapprove of Vivek Ramaswamy’s ad attacking opponent Amy Acton

Plus polling on voting methods, election forecasts, Trump rallies, socialism, the next Congress, congressional leaders, extremism, party comparisons, spending, and taxes.

This is scheduled to be the final Economist / YouGov Poll release before the Nov. 3 election.

Congressional elections

Registered voters prefer Democratic candidates for Congress to Republican candidates by a 6-point margin (46% vs. 40%), according to this week’s Economist / YouGov Poll. Democrats lead by more among likely voters, according to both of YouGov’s two definitions of them:

• An 8-point Democratic lead (50% vs. 41%, with the lead calculated by subtracting and then rounding) among the likely voters defined by YouGov’s loose screen, who are those registered voters who either have already voted or say they definitely or probably will vote

• An 11-point Democratic lead (52% vs. 41%) under YouGov’s strict screen: registered voters who either have already voted or say they definitely will vote

All three margins are in line with Economist / YouGov Polls in recent weeks.

Democrats’ 11-point lead among likely voters according to the strict screen is bigger than the 6-point lead Democrats held at this stage of the 2018 election among the equivalent group; the poll question then didn’t name candidates. In 2018, Democrats won the national popular vote by 9 points and won 235 seats in the House.

Registered voters in states with U.S. Senate races prefer Democratic candidates for the Senate to Republicans, but by smaller margins than Democrats’ national lead in U.S. House vote preference. Democrats have a 3-point lead nationally in Senate races among registered voters, a 3-point lead among loose-screen likely voters, and a 4-point lead among strict-screen likely voters. The reason for the smaller leads is mainly that states with Senate elections lean slightly more Republican than states without them. However, among strict-screen likely voters in Senate-election states, Democratic House candidates are running ahead of Senate candidates, leading by 8 points.

YouGov has also conducted state-based polling in states with key U.S. Senate races. See those individual state polls here.

An important part of the background for elections is the unpopularity of President Donald Trump. 39% of registered voters strongly or somewhat approve of Trump’s job performance, and 58% disapprove — a net job approval of -19. That’s lower than Trump’s -7 net approval at this point in 2018 and Joe Biden’s of -8 in late October 2022.

Election security

Registered voters in each party expect different threats to the outcome of the 2026 congressional elections, according to this week’s Economist / YouGov Poll. About half (51%) of registered voters — including 75% of Democrats and only 31% of Republicans — expect that if Democrats win a majority in the U.S. Senate, Republicans will challenge the results and refuse to seat some Democratic senators.

Republicans are far more likely to expect voter fraud to decide the outcome. Two-thirds (67%) of Republicans think the amount of voter fraud in the 2026 election will be enough to change who wins control of Congress, as do 36% of Independents and 16% of Democrats. MAGA Republicans — Republicans who say they are MAGA supporters — are more likely than non-MAGA Republicans to think fraud will decide the outcome (77% vs. 52%).

In polls conducted right after each of the last two presidential elections, we asked how much voter fraud had occurred. In November 2020, 40% of registered voters said there had been enough voter fraud to influence the outcome. In November 2024, 9% of registered voters said so.

Nearly half (46%) of registered voters think votes will be counted accurately in this year’s election; 18% think they will not be counted accurately and 35% are not sure. Democrats (56%) are more likely than Independents (41%) and Republicans (42%) to think votes will be counted accurately. About one-third of each group is not sure.

The poll also asked how serious a problem each of four things is in U.S. elections. Foreign interference is the only one of the four that Democrats and Republicans are similarly concerned about: 73% of Democrats and 69% of Republicans say foreign interference is a very or somewhat serious problem, as do 71% of registered voters overall.

73% of registered voters — including 83% of Democrats and 63% of Republicans — say the drawing of legislative and congressional districts by states that intentionally favor one political party is a very or somewhat serious problem.

Far more Republicans than Democrats say voting by non-citizens (82% vs. 19%) and mail-in voting fraud (84% vs. 17%) are very or somewhat serious problems. Half (50%) of registered voters say each of those two is a very or somewhat serious problem.

About half (48%) of registered voters think it is very or somewhat likely that the federal government will deploy federal agents or troops at polling places in Democratic areas; 32% think it is not very or at all likely. 65% of Democrats think it is very or somewhat likely, as do 47% of Independents and 35% of Republicans.

Ohio campaign ad

Vivek Ramaswamy’s campaign for Ohio governor ran an ad in which the mother of his opponent, Amy Acton, accuses Acton of lying about her childhood. This week’s Economist / YouGov Poll finds that most registered voters disapprove of the ad, and that disapproval is higher after people are told Acton’s account.

Before the survey, 44% of registered voters say they had heard a lot or some about the ad, including 58% of Democrats and 32% of Republicans.

All respondents were told the ad features Acton’s mother criticizing her for being dishonest and unfit to be governor. A randomly selected half were told only that. The rest were also told that “Acton says she has had no contact with her mother since she was removed from her mother’s custody at age 12 because of sexual abuse by her stepfather.” Among registered voters told only the description of the ad, 22% strongly or somewhat approve of the ad and 55% disapprove. Among those told why Acton hasn’t had contact with her mother, 13% approve and 64% disapprove.

Hearing Acton’s account affected views more among Republicans than among Democrats. Republicans who were not told Acton’s account were more likely to approve of the ad than disapprove of it (40% vs. 32%). The reverse is true for those who were told Acton’s point of view: 25% approve and 42% disapprove. Democrats not told Acton’s account were similarly likely to disapprove as those who were (82% vs. 84%). Among Independents, 55% disapprove without Acton’s response and 69% disapprove with it.

Views of Ramaswamy himself are more negative now than they were when we last asked about him in January 2025. His net favorability among registered voters — the share with a very or somewhat favorable opinion of him minus the share with an unfavorable one — is -13 (28% favorable, 40% unfavorable), down from -3. It is +34 among Republicans, down from +52, and -55 among Democrats, little changed from -58. Among Independents it is -26, the lowest since the poll began asking about him in May 2023.

Most registered voters oppose campaign ads paid for by rich donors. More registered voters say it is closer to their view that paying for political ads “allows rich donors to buy elections, and should be banned” than that it is “constitutionally protected free speech, and should not be restricted” (56% vs. 44%). About three-quarters (74%) of Democrats agree with the former statement, while most Republicans (65%) agree with the latter.

59% of registered voters— including 78% of Democrats, 66% of Independents, and 38% of Republicans — think a single person should not be allowed to donate hundreds of millions of dollars to support a political campaign. Republicans are evenly split: 38% would allow it.

Quick Takes

All of this week’s Quick Takes are among registered voters unless otherwise stated.

• More expect Democrats than Republicans to have a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives after the elections (44% vs. 31%). Expectations for the Senate are closer: 39% say Democrats will have a majority and 36% say Republicans will

• 31% think Donald Trump’s campaign rallies are giving a little or a lot of help to the Republican candidates he campaigns for, 33% think they are hurting, and 18% think they make no difference

• 50% say they would ever vote for a candidate who is a Democratic Socialist, and 41% would not. 51% think capitalism is the better economic system and 20% think socialism is; among Democrats, 38% choose socialism and 25% capitalism

• We asked respondents to tell us in their own words what they would like the next Congress to do differently from the current one. With the help of an AI tool to analyze responses, we find that 24% want the next Congress to check and oppose the Trump administration, 23% want members to do their job effectively, 15% want a lower cost of living, and 14% want members of Congress to represent the people over party and donors. People who give multiple answers are counted in multiple categories

• 18% approve of the way Congress is handling its job and 59% disapprove. Fewer approve than disapprove of all four congressional leaders: Mike Johnson (32% vs. 45%), Hakeem Jeffries (26% vs. 47%), John Thune (21% vs. 46%), and Chuck Schumer (24% vs. 54%). Schumer is the only leader more disapproved of than approved of by members of his own party: 42% of Democrats disapprove and 38% approve

• Half (49%) think the Republican Party is too extreme and 46% think the Democratic Party is. Independents are more likely to label as too extreme the Republican Party than the Democratic Party (58% vs. 41%)

• More think Democrats than Republicans would do a better job handling health care (48% vs. 32%), civil rights (48% vs. 33%), and inflation (41% vs. 36%). More think Republicans would do a better job handling immigration (47% vs. 38%)

• Majorities think the federal government should increase spending on Social Security (69%), Medicare (66%), and Medicaid (56%). Half (49%) say funding for SNAP — food stamps — should be increased

Final Chart

This newsletter was written by David Montgomery, Taylor Orth, and Carl Bialik

See a version of this report on the YouGov website, plus the toplines and crosstabs for the October 23–26, 2026 Economist/YouGov Poll

Methodology: The poll was conducted among 1,440 registered voters. Respondents were selected from YouGov's opt-in panel to be representative of U.S. adult citizens. A random sample (stratified by gender, age, race, education, geographic region, and voter registration) was selected from the 2019 American Community Survey. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, U.S. region, 2024 presidential vote, 2020 election turnout and presidential vote, baseline party identification, and current voter registration status. 2024 presidential vote, at time of weighting, was estimated to be 48% Harris and 50% Trump. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification is the respondent's most recent answer given around November 8, 2024, and is weighted to the estimated distribution at that time (31% Democratic, 33% Republican). The margin of error is approximately 3%.

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In this week’s Economist/YouGov poll:

• Are Republicans catching up in the race for Congress?

• Support for sending military aid to Ukraine has fallen

Plus polling on election worries, trust in the parties, press secretaries, Ilhan Omar, school shootings, and gas prices

The 2026 elections

Economist / YouGov Polls in September painted a promising picture for Democrats in the 2026 elections: double-digit leads among likely voters, and a record-large lead for this election among registered voters.

But the latest poll shows a shrinking Democratic lead: 5 points among registered voters, and 7- and 9-point leads under YouGov’s likely voter screens. The Democratic leads among all three groups have fallen for two consecutive polls. Democrats’ lead under YouGov’s strict voter screen — registered voters who have already voted or say they will definitely vote — has fallen to 9 points from a peak of 14 points four weeks ago.

Does this mean Republicans are catching up in the congressional elections? Let’s look at the data.

1. There’s no clear sign of a tightening race among registered voters

While Democrats’ lead among registered voters has fallen to 5 points from 8 points two weeks ago, that kind of shift is far from unusual in Economist / YouGov Polls. Week-to-week variations of this magnitude have happened regularly over the past two years. The overall trend in recent months is still an increasing Democratic lead.

If next week’s poll continues to show a Democratic lead of no more than 5 points, that might provide more evidence for a tightening race among registered voters. But so far there’s no way to know if this is anything more than normal week-to-week variation.

2. Republicans are becoming more likely to say they’ll vote

Besides voter registration status or intent, the main question YouGov uses to define likely voters is, “How likely are you to vote in the election in November?” Registered voters who say they “definitely” will vote or who have already voted are likely voters under YouGov’s strict screen. The loose screen adds people who say they’ll “probably” vote. (Non-registered voters who planned to register by Election Day are not included in the loose screen; they had been included in YouGov’s definition of the loose screen through the October 10-12 poll.)

Democrats have consistently done better among likely voters using the strict screen than they have among registered voters, because Democrats have been more likely to say they definitely will vote or already voted. Among registered voters, 18% of Democrats and 19% of those who support Democratic candidates have already voted, compared with 5% of Republicans and 7% of Republican supporters. 87% of Democrats and 89% of Democratic supporters say they either already voted or definitely will vote, compared to 80% of Republicans and 83% of Republican supporters.

But that 7-point gap between the share of Democrats and Republicans who have already voted or say they’ll definitely vote is much smaller than it was last month. While around 85% of Democrats have consistently said they’ll definitely vote or already did, in mid-September only 70% of Republicans did — 16 points behind Democrats at that time.

The result is that the population of likely voters — under YouGov’s strict screen — is getting comparatively more Republican than it was in September. That explains why the Democratic advantage under the strict screen has shrunk more than the Democratic edge among all registered voters.

3. The big polling picture is still friendly to Democrats

While Democrats’ 9-point lead among likely voters is down compared to September, it’s still higher than the 4-point lead Democrats had with a similar group at this stage in the 2018 midterm elections. Economist / YouGov Polls in 2018 also showed Democrats peaking in September among likely voters, followed by a tightening race in October. Democrats won the national popular vote by 9 points and won 235 seats in the House.

Most registered voters disapprove of Donald Trump’s job performance, as has been the case for months: 40% strongly or somewhat approve of how Trump is handling his job, while 59% disapprove.

Trump’s net job approval among registered voters of -18 is far below his net approval of -8 with the same group at this point in 2018.

Most registered voters who are supporters of Democratic candidates (66%) say it feels like Trump is on the ballot, compared to 51% of Republican supporters.

Two-thirds (66%) of registered voters say the country is off on the wrong track. At this point in Trump’s first term, 52% said the country was on the wrong track.

Belief that the country is off on the wrong track is nearly unanimous among registered voters who are Democrats (91%), and three-quarters (76%) of Independents say the same. Republicans are more divided, with 57% saying the country is generally headed in the right direction and 34% saying it’s on the wrong track.

Republicans who are MAGA supporters are optimistic about the country (66% say right direction and 26% say wrong track) but non-MAGA Republicans are more pessimistic (44% vs. 46%).

Russia and Ukraine

Support for sending military aid to Ukraine has fallen since July, according to this week’s Economist / YouGov Poll. 46% of registered voters say the U.S. should send military aid to Ukraine and 34% say it should not. In July, 56% of registered voters said the U.S. should send aid and 28% said it should not; support was weaker in June.

Support for aid has fallen most among Independents and Republicans. 44% of Independent registered voters now say the U.S. should send military aid, down from 57% in July. And 28% of Republican registered voters support military aid, down from 41%. Democrats’ support is little changed (69% now vs. 70% in July).

The decline is steepest among MAGA Republicans — Republicans who say they are MAGA supporters. 26% of MAGA Republican registered voters say the U.S. should send military aid to Ukraine, down from 45% in July. Support has also dropped among non-MAGA Republican registered voters (31% now vs. 37% in July).

There is more support for sharing intelligence with Ukraine than for sending it aid: 51% of registered voters say the U.S. should share military intelligence with Ukraine and 31% say it should not. Republican registered voters are more likely to say the U.S. should not share military intelligence with Ukraine than to say it should (46% vs. 35%). The opposite is true for Democrats: 15% oppose sharing intelligence and 66% support it.

65% of registered voters consider Ukraine an ally or friendly to the U.S., and 6% call it an enemy. Among Republican registered voters, 55% consider Ukraine an ally or friendly. 48% of registered voters consider Russia an enemy and another 30% consider it unfriendly.

66% of registered voters say they sympathize more with Ukraine in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, 3% say Russia, and 24% say neither.

45% of registered voters say they think Donald Trump sympathizes more with Russia and 16% think he sympathizes more with Ukraine. 72% of Democrats, 51% of Independents, and 14% of Republicans think Trump sympathizes more with Russia.

Among registered voters who sympathize more with Ukraine, 59% think Trump sympathizes more with Russia. That varies quite a bit by party. Among Democratic registered voters who sympathize more with Ukraine, 82% think Trump sympathizes more with Russia and 5% think he sympathizes more with Ukraine. Among Republican registered voters who side with Ukraine, 48% think Trump sides with Ukraine and 16% think he sympathizes more with Russia.

More registered voters say Volodymyr Zelensky is more likely than Putin to want to make a deal to end the war in Ukraine than say Putin is (45% say Zelensky and 9% say Putin); 13% say both are equally likely to and 33% aren’t sure.

The poll also asked about a recent statement from Trump: “If you tell me that Zelensky is again shooting at refineries, all he’s doing is making the world oil price higher. I think that’s a disgrace. There’s plenty of other targets; they don’t have to hit.” 39% of registered voters agree with the statement and 44% disagree. Republicans agree by 70% to 13%. Democrats disagree by 72% to 11%. Independents are more likely to disagree than agree (52% vs. 32%).

47% of registered voters think neither side will win the war between Russia and Ukraine, 15% think Russia will win, and 14% think Ukraine will. 44% aren’t sure how much longer the war will last, 41% expect it to last at least another year, and 15% expect it to end within a year.

Quick Takes

All of this week’s Quick Takes are among registered voters.

• 57% say voting is mainly a duty for them personally, and 34% say it is mainly a choice. Democrats (63%) and Republicans (59%) are more likely than Independents (47%) to call it a duty

• 39% say someone from one of the campaigns or political parties has contacted them about voting in the 2026 election, and 53% say no one has. Among people who have been contacted, 67% say someone associated with the Democrats contacted them and 64% say someone associated with the Republicans did

• 36% have a great deal or quite a bit of confidence that the 2026 congressional elections will be held fairly, 31% a moderate amount, and 27% only a little or none at all. Democrats are more likely than Republicans to say they have a great deal or quite a bit of confidence (45% vs. 31%)

• More say Democrats than Republicans would do a better job handling transgender rights (52% vs. 23%), keeping us out of wars (46% vs. 22%), and handling inflation (41% vs. 34%). More say Republicans than Democrats are better at handling immigration (45% vs. 39%). Opinion is almost evenly divided on who would do a better job eliminating corruption in government: 35% say Democrats and 34% say Republicans

• Who has been Donald Trump’s best White House press secretary? While 39% say none of them and 21% aren’t sure, the largest share choosing a named option say Karoline Leavitt (21%), followed by Sarah Huckabee Sanders (8%) and Kayleigh McEnany (7%). Fewer say Sean Spicer (1%), Stephanie Grisham (1%), or Katie Zacharia (1%)

  • 20% say Zacharia has been Trump’s worst press secretary, more than choose any other option; 41% aren’t sure

• 31% have a very or somewhat favorable opinion of Ilhan Omar and 43% have an unfavorable one. Democrats view her favorably by 61% to 9%, and Republicans view her unfavorably by 74% to 6%

• 70% — including 43% of Democrats, 68% of Independents, and 97% of Republicans — strongly or somewhat agree that there are only two genders, male and female. More men than women agree there are only two genders (79% vs. 62%)

• 50% say government can prevent further school shootings, while 40% say shootings will recur regardless of government actions

• 67% say gas prices where they live are going up a lot or a little, and 16% say they’re going down. 82% of Democrats and 70% of Independents say prices are going up, compared with 50% of Republicans

  • We asked respondents who said gas prices where they live are going up to tell us in their own words why they think gas prices have risen. With the help of an AI tool to analyze responses, we find that 41% point to the Iran war, 18% to President Trump, and 17% to war in general. (People who name multiple reasons are counted in multiple categories)

  • Respondents who said gas prices where they live are going down were asked why they think gas prices have gone down. 15% point to government market action, 13% to the easing of conflict in the Middle East and Iran, 13% to greater supply, and 12% to crude oil pricing. 13% say prices remain high even though they’re down locally

Final Chart

This newsletter was written by David Montgomery, Taylor Orth, and Carl Bialik

See a version of this report on the YouGov website, plus the toplines and crosstabs for the October 19–20, 2026 Economist/YouGov Poll

Methodology: The poll was conducted among 1,501 registered voters. Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel to be representative of U.S. adult citizens. A random sample (stratified by gender, age, race, education, geographic region, and voter registration) was selected from the 2019 American Community Survey. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, U.S. region, 2024 presidential vote, 2020 election turnout and presidential vote, baseline party identification, and current voter registration status. 2024 presidential vote, at time of weighting, was estimated to be 48% Harris and 50% Trump. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification is the respondent’s most recent answer given around November 8, 2024, and is weighted to the estimated distribution at that time (31% Democratic, 33% Republican). The margin of error for those who are currently registered to vote is approximately 3%.

Learn more and get in touch

Sign up to participate in our polls and share your opinions on the people, companies, and issues that shape your life and the world

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To commission or get a quote for running your own survey with YouGov, explore the options here.

Have questions or feedback?

• If you have a press or media inquiry, email uspress@yougov.com

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• If you are a panelist and have questions, contact support here

• For information on privacy, please read our privacy notice

In this week’s Economist/YouGov poll:

• How opinion of Trump has fallen in the year leading up to the midterms

• Nearly half of Americans describe the economy as poor, the highest share since 2022

• Two-thirds of Americans oppose livestreaming executions

Plus polling on Trump’s legacy, the Iran war, the election, confidence in institutions, Elon Musk, and how Americans’ life outlook and political activity have changed in the past decade.

Trump and the election

Democratic candidates lead Republican candidates by 7 points among registered voters, and by 8 and 11 points among two groups of likely voters as defined by YouGov’s screens, according to the latest Economist / YouGov Poll. All three Democratic leads are down slightly from last week’s poll.

Democrats lead by 8 points among YouGov’s “loose” likely voter screen, which consists of U.S. adult citizens who meet two criteria: (1) They either are registered to vote or both say they will be registered to vote by the November elections and live in states where registration remains an option, and (2) They have already voted or say they definitely or probably will vote. The Democratic lead is 11 points on the “strict” likely voter screen: registered voters who have already voted or say they will definitely vote.

Though the Democratic lead has narrowed since last week, Democratic candidates continue to have a larger lead among strict-screen likely voters than they had among the same group in the 2018 midterm elections, when Democrats won the national popular vote by 9 points and gained 41 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.

This Democratic lead in the 2026 U.S. House elections comes amid President Donald Trump’s continued unpopularity. 34% of U.S. adult citizens strongly or somewhat approve of Trump’s job handling, and 62% disapprove — a net job approval of -28. That’s in line with recent weeks but down from a year ago, when Trump’s net approval was regularly between -10 and -20. It’s also far lower than Trump’s net job approval at this point in his first term (-10) or Joe Biden’s at this point in his term (-1).

57% of Americans say their opinion of Trump has worsened a lot or a little since he started his second term, matching the largest share in a series of six YouGov polls since April 2025 that have asked the question. Only 16% say their opinion of him has improved.

Most Americans (57%) who strongly approve of Trump’s job performance say their opinion of him has improved a lot since his second term began and only 1% say it has worsened. Among people who somewhat approve of Trump’s performance, more say their opinion of him has worsened (25%) than say it has improved (20%); 53% say it hasn’t changed.

45% of Americans say the policy positions Trump has taken in his second term are very or somewhat different from the positions he took as a candidate in 2024; 40% say his positions are not very or at all different. Among people who say Trump’s positions have changed, few prefer the change: 24% prefer the positions he held as a candidate in 2024, 8% prefer the ones he holds as president now, and 63% prefer neither set. Among the 28% of Republicans who say Trump’s positions have changed since his second term started, 56% prefer the positions he campaigned on and 30% prefer the ones he holds now.

The economy

The latest Economist / YouGov Poll finds that roughly half (49%) of Americans say the current state of the American economy is poor, the largest share since July 2022. Only 20% describe the economy as excellent (4%) or good (16%).

Democrats (66%) and Independents (59%) are far more likely than Republicans (20%) to say the state of the economy is poor. But some Republicans have more-negative views. Among MAGA Republicans — Republicans who say they are MAGA supporters — only 14% say the economy is poor and 54% say it is excellent or good; 30% say fair. Among non-MAGA Republicans, 26% say poor and only 27% say excellent or good; 46% say fair.

63% of Americans say the economy is getting worse, compared with 14% who say it is getting better and 18% who say it is about the same.

Out of five areas asked about in the poll, inflation is where Donald Trump’s handling is rated lowest. 26% of Americans strongly or somewhat approve of how he is handling inflation and 68% disapprove, for a net approval of -42. By comparison, Trump’s net approval is -31 on Iran, -31 on health care, -21 on civil rights, and -13 on immigration.

MAGA and non-MAGA Republicans diverge in their opinion of Trump’s handling of inflation. Net approval of his handling of inflation is +66 among MAGA Republicans, compared to -33 among non-MAGA Republicans. The two groups are closest in their rating of Trump’s handling of immigration, with a net approval of +84 among MAGA Republicans and +54 among non-MAGA Republicans.

54% of Americans say the war in Iran is hurting the U.S. economy a great deal, 28% say it is hurting it some, 14% a little, and 4% not at all. Democrats (80%) and Independents (58%) are far more likely than Republicans (23%) to say the U.S. economy is being hurt a great deal by the Iran war.

The poll offers Americans a list of 15 issues and asks which is the most important for them. 45% pick the major economic issues of inflation, jobs, and the economy — 33% inflation/prices and 12% jobs and the economy. Separately, we ask Americans to say in their own words what they think is the most important problem facing the U.S. today, and with this prompt fewer name inflation, jobs, or the economy. With the help of an AI tool to analyze responses, we find that about 35% of Americans give an answer about inflation or the economy; the next most common answers are about presidential leadership (14%) and about political polarization (9%).

The death penalty

More Americans favor the death penalty for murder than oppose it, but few support live-streaming executions, according to the latest Economist / YouGov Poll.

Three-quarters (75%) of Republicans favor the death penalty for murder, and Independents are almost twice as likely to favor it as to oppose it (48% vs. 27%). But the death penalty is unpopular among Democrats, only 29% of whom support the death penalty for murder while 52% oppose it. Overall, 51% of Americans favor it, 30% are opposed, and 19% aren’t sure.

Republicans who are MAGA supporters are slightly more likely to favor the death penalty for murder than are non-MAGA Republicans (80% vs. 70%). Among all Americans, non-college graduates are more supportive of the death penalty than are college graduates (54% vs. 45%).

Both Protestants and Roman Catholics are more likely to favor than to oppose the death penalty for murder by a two-to-one margin. Agnostics and those who say their religion is “nothing in particular” are also more likely to favor than to oppose it, while most atheists oppose the death penalty (27% favor and 59% oppose).

There’s more division about how often the death penalty should be imposed. 19% of Americans say it should never be imposed, while 20% say it should be used less often, 34% more often, and 28% with the current frequency.

Most MAGA Republicans (63%) want the death penalty to be used more often, while 23% would not change the frequency of death sentences. Non-MAGA Republicans are evenly divided between saying the death penalty should be used more often and at the current rate (41% each).

Twice as many Americans who support the death penalty for murder want the death penalty used more often (62%) than at the current frequency (31%); only 6% want it used less often. The vast majority of those who oppose the death penalty for murder want it used either never (55%) or less often (35%).

But public livestreams of executions are very unpopular. Only 18% of Americans strongly or somewhat favor having executions broadcast live to the public, while 69% oppose this.

The poll was conducted after the U.S. military announced plans to livestream the execution of Fort Hood shooter Nidal Hasan by firing squad. The poll didn’t ask specifically about Hasan’s case.

Opposition to livestreamed executions is widespread. More oppose than favor this among all Republicans (52% oppose and 31% favor), MAGA Republicans (48% vs. 36%), and death penalty supporters (55% vs. 32%). Almost all Democrats (87%) and death penalty opponents (92%) oppose livestreamed executions, as do most Independents (67%) and non-MAGA Republicans (62%).

If the death penalty has to be imposed, Americans are more likely to say lethal injection should be used (46%) than support using firing squads (31%), electrocution (20%), or hanging (18%). 16% say none of those methods should be used.

Quick Takes

All of this week’s Quick Takes are among Election Day registered voters — those U.S. adult citizens who either are registered to vote or who say they plan to register before Election Day.

• 62% think Trump does not care much (11%) or at all (50%) about the needs and problems of people like them; 36% think he cares a lot (21%) or some (15%)

• 49% think Trump will go down in history as a poor president, while 17% think he’ll be seen as outstanding, 13% above average, 8% average, and 7% below average. See more on Trump’s historical standing

• 56% think the decision to go to war in Iran was the wrong decision and 29% think it was the right decision. 91% of Democrats and 65% of Independents say it was wrong, compared with 17% of Republicans. 60% of Republicans say it was the right decision

• 41% are more enthusiastic about voting in this year’s election than in previous congressional election years, 17% less enthusiastic, and 37% about the same. 51% of Democrats, 41% of Republicans, and 29% of Independents are more enthusiastic about voting than in the past

• Among people who say they will definitely vote, will probably vote, or have already voted, 43% say they will cast their vote in person on Election Day, 24% in person before Election Day, and 31% by mail or absentee ballot

• 61% have a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in the military, the highest share for nine institutions the poll asked about. Confidence is lowest in Congress, at 17%, behind the criminal justice system (26%) and the Department of Justice (28%)

• More have a very or somewhat favorable opinion of Elon Musk than of Mark Zuckerberg (39% vs. 25%)

• 48% say they are less optimistic about life now than they were 10 years ago, while 23% are more optimistic and 29% about the same

• We asked respondents to say in their own words what worries, if any, they have about the election. With the help of an AI tool to analyze responses, we find that 32% of Democrats and 1% of Republicans are worried about Trump interfering. (Respondents who named multiple worries are counted in multiple categories.) 5% of Democrats and 23% of Republicans are worried about fraud and cheating

• We also asked respondents to interpret in their own words what Trump meant when he said about Iran, “Let them take, let them take out Los Angeles; let them take out San Diego,” after showing them a clip of his remarks. Respondents could give more than one interpretation. With the help of an AI tool to categorize responses, we find that 39% of Democrats and 10% of Republicans say Trump was inviting or accepting a foreign attack. 4% of Democrats and 20% of Republicans say he didn’t mean it, because he was joking or otherwise

Final Chart

This newsletter was written by David Montgomery, Taylor Orth, and Carl Bialik

See a version of this report on the YouGov website, plus the toplines and crosstabs for the October 10–12, 2026 Economist/YouGov Poll

Methodology: The poll was conducted among 1,548 U.S. adult citizens, including 1,403 who reported that they were currently registered to vote or planned to register before the election in November. Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel to be representative of U.S. adult citizens. A random sample (stratified by gender, age, race, education, geographic region, and voter registration) was selected from the 2019 American Community Survey. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, U.S. region, 2024 presidential vote, 2020 election turnout and presidential vote, baseline party identification, and current voter registration status. 2024 presidential vote, at time of weighting, was estimated to be 48% Harris and 50% Trump. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification is the respondent’s most recent answer given around November 8, 2024, and is weighted to the estimated distribution at that time (31% Democratic, 33% Republican). The margin of error for those who are currently registered to vote or who plan to register before the election in November is approximately 3.5%.

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YouGov recently polled seven key states with U.S. Senate races, and found Republican candidates trailing in six of them. See the results for YouGov’s polls of Florida, Kansas, Michigan, Nebraska, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Texas in our roundup.

In this week’s Economist/YouGov poll:

• Democrats lead by double digits in each of the two new ways we define likely voters

• Inflation hits a new high as Americans’ top issue

Plus polling on ads featuring Trump, AI, the death penalty, social media, future generations, prices, and the direction of the country.

The November elections

Democratic candidates have an 8-point lead over Republican candidates among registered voters in the latest Economist / YouGov Poll — and an even bigger lead among the most likely voters.

The 8-point lead for Democratic candidates is the largest in any Economist / YouGov Poll this election cycle. It’s substantially larger than the 3-point lead Democrats had among registered voters at this point in the 2022 election. At this point in 2024, the race was tied.

But not all registered voters with a candidate preference will vote in November. Among registered voters who say they’ll definitely vote or have already voted, 52% back Democratic candidates and 40% support Republican candidates, making for a 12-point Democratic lead. Among all other registered voters, Republicans lead by 7 points (38% for Republicans vs. 31% for Democrats).

YouGov Chief Scientist Douglas Rivers wrote in our newsletter yesterday that there are multiple ways polls can define likely voters — and the choice of definition can affect the results. Economist / YouGov Polls are now publishing results for two different likely voter screens:

• Strict: Registered voters who have already voted or say they will definitely vote. This excludes anybody who isn’t registered, even if they plan to register, as well as anyone who is registered but isn’t sure that they will vote.

• Loose: Includes everyone who passes the strict screen and adds registered voters who say they will probably vote, as well as people who aren’t registered but plan to register and who say they will definitely or probably vote. This balances uncertainty between the registration and turnout questions.

Among likely voters under the strict screen, Democrats have a 12-point lead. That’s 4 points better than Democrats’ 8-point lead among registered voters. Likely voters under the loose screen are in between: Democrats lead by 10 points after rounding (51% vs. 40%).

Economist / YouGov Polls in September used a third kind of likely voter screen. They defined likely voters as U.S. adult citizens who met two criteria: (1) They either were registered to vote or said they will be registered to vote by the November elections; and (2) They either said they will definitely vote in November or said they had already voted.

As Rivers wrote, this produced a 16-point Democratic lead, which “is almost certainly an overstatement”: a Democratic lead about 2 points bigger than that produced by the new strict screen in each of the past two polls. YouGov is retiring that old likely voter screen beginning with this week’s poll.

About 14% of Election Day registered voters — U.S. adult citizens who are either currently registered to vote or say they’ll register by Election Day — are classified as likely voters under YouGov’s loose screen but not its strict screen. This group is disproportionately younger — 22% of adults under 30 fall into this category, compared to 10% of those 45 and older. Other groups especially likely to be likely voters only under the loose screen are Republicans who say they’re not MAGA supporters (19%), and those with mixed feelings about Trump’s job performance: 19% of those who somewhat approve of Trump and 28% of those who somewhat disapprove fall into this category, compared to 6% of those who strongly approve and 12% of those who strongly disapprove.

35% of U.S. adult citizens strongly or somewhat approve of Trump’s job performance, while 60% disapprove, for a net job approval of -25. Over the past three Economist / YouGov Polls, Trump has averaged a -27 net approval, which is near his lowest ever received.

Economy

Inflation has been Americans’ most important issue for four years and its importance has reached a new high, according to the latest Economist / YouGov Poll. 37% of Americans pick inflation/prices from a list of 15 issues as the one most important to them, the largest share since the poll added the option in July 2022. The share saying inflation is their top issue is up from 32% in last week’s poll and from a 2026 average of 29%.

Nearly half (47%) of Americans say the economy is in poor shape, equaling the highest share since September 2023.

Economic issues are weak points for Donald Trump. Of the issues whose handling by Trump the Economist / YouGov Poll has tracked since June, inflation/prices is his worst: Only 26% of Americans strongly or somewhat approve of the way he is handling it and 69% disapprove, for a net approval of -43. The economy is the area with Trump’s next lowest net approval at -36, followed by government spending at -34.

Trump’s net approval on economic issues fall below his standing overall: 35% of Americans approve of Trump’s job performance and 60% disapprove, for a net of -25. His net approval on the economy is 10 points behind that.

That’s a reversal from Trump’s first term. At the same point in that term, according to the October 7 - 9, 2018 Economist / YouGov Poll, Trump’s net approval on the economy was +9 and his overall net approval was -10, putting his approval on the economy 19 points ahead of his overall approval.

Among Democrats, Trump’s net approval on the economy is -92. Among Independents, he’s at -55, and among Republicans, at +36.

Republicans are sharply split among themselves on Trump’s handling of the economy. MAGA Republicans — Republicans who say they are MAGA supporters — approve of Trump’s handling of the economy by 83% to 15%. Non-MAGA Republicans disapprove, 60% to 34%. On inflation/prices, MAGA Republicans approve by 68% to 27%, while non-MAGA Republicans disapprove by 66% to 32%.

Non-MAGA Republicans have a more negative perception than MAGA Republicans of the trend of the economy: 49% say the economy is getting worse, compared to 20% of MAGA Republicans. Also, 49% of non-MAGA Republicans pick inflation/prices as the issue most important to them, compared to 31% of MAGA Republicans.

Quick Takes

All of this week’s Quick Takes are among Election Day registered voters — those U.S. adult citizens who either are registered to vote or who say they plan to register before Election Day.

• 17% favor the Department of Homeland Security spending $20 million to run ads featuring Donald Trump; 72% oppose

• 71% think artificial intelligence is advancing too quickly, 21% think it is advancing at about the right pace, and 1% too slowly. 62% think government regulation of AI should be increased

• 41% trust Democrats more to handle AI and 33% trust Republicans more; 25% trust both equally

• 33% think the death penalty should be used more often than it currently is, 16% about as often, 6% less often, and 28% think it should never be used

• 42% say lethal injection should be used if the death penalty has to be imposed, more than say firing squad (29%), electrocution (20%), or hanging (16%); respondents could select more than one method

• 52% are worn out by how many political posts and discussions they see on social media, 23% like seeing lots of political material, and 25% don’t feel strongly either way

• 45% say children today will be worse off financially than their parents when they grow up, 21% say about the same, and 14% better off

• 92% say gas prices have gone up over the last 12 months, 90% say food has gotten more expensive, 80% say housing has, and 72% say cars have

Final Chart

This newsletter was written by David Montgomery, Taylor Orth, and Carl Bialik

See a version of this report on the YouGov website, plus the toplines and crosstabs for the October 2–5, 2026 Economist/YouGov Poll

Methodology: The poll was conducted among 1,513 U.S. adult citizens, including 1,381 who reported that they were currently registered to vote or planned to register before the election in November. Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel to be representative of U.S. adult citizens. A random sample (stratified by gender, age, race, education, geographic region, and voter registration) was selected from the 2019 American Community Survey. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, U.S. region, 2024 presidential vote, 2020 election turnout and presidential vote, baseline party identification, and current voter registration status. 2024 presidential vote, at time of weighting, was estimated to be 48% Harris and 50% Trump. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification is the respondent’s most recent answer given around November 8, 2024, and is weighted to the estimated distribution at that time (31% Democratic, 33% Republican). The margin of error for those who are currently registered to vote or who plan to register before the election in November is approximately 3.4%.

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In 2024, Donald Trump won the popular vote by 1.5 percentage points, trailing the 2.6 point margin of Republican House candidates. Since then, it’s been downhill for Republicans, with Trump’s popularity falling into the mid-30s and popular dissatisfaction about inflation, tariffs, endless wars, ballrooms and monuments. Democrats have led in 2026 midterm polling for over a year, but recent polls (including our own) have shown double-digit leads and fueled talk of a blue wave.

One should be cautious in interpreting poll leads. The devil in election polling is in the details. Who is being polled? How do you decide who is a “likely voter”? And what do you do about undecided voters? These choices can have a substantial impact on who appears to be leading and by how much. This is the problem of researcher degrees of freedom. When there are many possible decisions about how to analyze the data, there is a corresponding range of estimates that is not reflected in the reported margin of error.

This is a serious problem for evaluating election polling in 2026. Democrats hold a significant lead in nearly every national House poll, but the size of the lead varies substantially depending on how you define registered voters, likely voters, and the undecided. We’ve noticed this in our own Economist/YouGov polls, with Democratic leads in the September 25-28 survey ranging from a fairly modest 6 points among current registrants to a hard-to-believe Democratic lead of 16 points with a particular likely voter screen. This is roughly the difference between a gentle swell and a tsunami.

In this note, we take a look at how different choices affect the size of the lead. There is no “right” definition of registered, likely, or undecided voters—all are, at best, reasonable approximations, subject to considerable uncertainty. Our goal here is to measure the impact of such choices and, along the way, obtain a better understanding of what is going on in the election. The TL;DR version is that there is a range of plausible Democratic margins—between about 8 and 14 points—that come from defensible data choices. The 16-point Democratic margin comes from a mix of assumptions that all push the result in Democrats’ favor and that should probably be discounted. This is still an uncomfortably wide range. (The Democratic margin was about 8 points in 2006 and 2018, but 14 points would be the largest margin since the post-Watergate election of 1974.) We will be releasing district-level results from our text-to-web polling before the election and, we hope, providing a narrower range.

Registered voters

Defining the registered voter universe seems easy. You need to be registered in order to vote, right? Except in North Dakota, which abolished voter registration in 1951 and allows anyone who shows up with a valid ID to vote if they attest to U.S. citizenship and having been a state resident for at least 30 days. And except in any of the remaining 49 states, where you can still register and vote in this election. They all allow registration up to 30 days before the election and in nearly half you can register as late as Election Day. Surely this is just a technicality? Nope. In past years, about 5% of people who vote registered after Labor Day. To deal with late registrations, we ask people if they are registered or whether they plan to register before the election.

Self-reports of registration, either current or future, are not entirely reliable. Some people think they are registered when they’re not. Others think they should be registered and avoid embarrassment by saying that they are. (This is known in the field as social desirability bias.) And, of course, many of those with the best of intentions of registering don’t do so. Everyone who conducts election surveys knows this is a problem. In some of our surveys, we try to match panelists to voter lists. In our text-to-web surveys, we select respondents from voter lists so we don’t need to rely upon their self-reports, though we miss those who register later.

Likely voters

But registration is far from the only problem. Who will actually vote? Our goal is to measure the margin among those who vote, not preferences of non-voters, but nobody (including the voters themselves) knows with certainty who will turn out. We hope that voters can tell us how likely they are to vote, but there’s not much benefit in asking this far in advance of an election. As the election nears, most pollsters think they can get better estimates by using a likely voter screen (or model). If you ask three pollsters, you will probably hear about four different methods they’ve used for determining who is a likely voter. There is no standard, agreed-upon procedure. We’ve tried lots of different approaches and are dissatisfied with all of them. For the YouGov/Economist poll, we use a single question (“How likely are you to vote in the election in November?”) and offer seven answers (already voted, definitely will vote, probably will vote, maybe will vote, probably will not vote, definitely will not vote, and don’t know).1 Our panelists, as is typical of most survey-takers, tend to be enthusiastic about voting and most say they have “already voted” or “definitely will vote.”

Using a likely voter screen or weighting by likelihood of voting only matters if high propensity voters’ preferences are different from other registered voters’. Up until about a decade ago, the Republican margin in midterm polls was larger among likely voters than registered voters. For example, between 1994 and 2010, the Republican lead in Gallup polls was between 4 and 11 points larger among likely voters (using a model based on nine questions) than registered voters. Since 2016, high education/high turnout voters have become increasingly Democratic, leading to small differences in vote intent between registered and likely voters.

Until this year, that is. Throughout 2026, Democrats have held a lead among registered voters. At the beginning of the year, the Democratic lead was fairly small, but it has grown over time. The Democratic margin averaged 4 points in January and grew to 6 points in September. But likely voters are much more Democratic than those less likely to vote. Among currently registered voters who say they have already voted or will definitely vote, Democrats lead by 13 points, while Republicans lead among the remainder by 15 points. There are only 26 respondents in the September 25-28 survey who plan to register, and they are overwhelmingly Democratic (+45). Among the seven respondents who plan to register and say they will definitely vote, none say they are voting Republican.

The likely voter definition used in the last four YouGov/Economist polls defined likely voters as those who have already voted or say they will definitely vote. This would seem to be a “strict” likely voter screen, since it omits anyone who says they “probably” or “maybe” will vote. However, it includes some people who say they will definitely vote, but who aren’t yet registered, which is pretty loose.2 And the definition makes a big difference (for which, mea culpa): a Democratic lead of 16 points using this definition of likely voters. This is almost certainly an overstatement, since some of those who plan to register, won’t register or vote. Further, this effect is compounded by how the sample is weighted. (Those who plan to register are get upweighted because the weighting target is based on current registration.) Instead, we are introducing strict and loose likely voter screens into our crosstabs:

• Strict: Currently registered voters who have already voted or say they will definitely vote. This excludes anybody who plans to register or isn’t sure that they will vote.

• Loose: Adds currently registered voters who say they will probably vote, and people who plan to register and say they will definitely or probably vote. This balances uncertainty between the turnout and registration questions.

Table 1 below shows voting intention (without leaners) using each definition of the electorate. The Democratic margin is smallest (8 points) among all registered voters (including those planning to register; the lead is 6 points among currently registered voters). There is also an 9-point Democratic lead when the loose likely voter screen is applied. However, the Democratic margin grows to 12 points when the strict definition of likely voters is employed.

Table 1

Undecideds and switchers

There is yet another source of uncertainty that we haven’t covered yet: people who say they haven’t decided how to vote and those who say they have but might switch their votes over the next month. The impact of these groups is often exaggerated. In principle, all the currently undecided could vote for one party and substantially alter the outcome. In practice, many undecideds don’t vote and those who do also split their votes to some degree. We ask undecideds, “If you had to choose between these candidates, who would you be most likely to vote for?” One plausible rule is to combine leaners with those who express a voting intention and to ignore (or allocate proportionally) those who remain undecided after being pushed for a preference. There are many other possibilities for how to account for leaners, but usually the choice doesn’t matter much.

In Table 2, we combine those who lean toward each candidate with those who said they would vote for that candidate. Again, we use the same two definitions of likely voters, alongside registered voters. The Democratic lead with leaners included ranges from 9 points among all registered or planning to register, to 10 points with the loose turnout screen, to 14 points with the strict screen. This increases the Democratic margin, but 8’s still smaller than the 16-point Democratic margin reported from this week’s poll, which includes people who are not yet registered but say they will definitely vote.

Table 2

This is quite a spread, but it doesn’t even include another potential source of uncertainty—switchers. Consumers of polls have undoubtedly heard that polls are only snapshots and not predictions—true, though also an all-purpose get-out-of-jail-free card for bad polling—but people can change their minds and we have tried to measure who might switch sides. For people who tell us how they are going to vote (but have not yet voted), we ask, “Would you consider voting for a different candidate, or is your mind made up?” This allows us to divide the electorate into five groups:

• Voters whose mind is made up. They tend to vote at high rates and don’t move much during a campaign.

• Voters who say they intend to vote for one of the candidates but would still consider a different candidate. These are shakier. They can be targets for persuasion and might not vote.

• Leaners who express a candidate preference when pushed.

• Undecideds who don’t lean toward either candidate.

• Nonvoters. These are only relevant when no likely voter screen is employed.

In Table 3, we display the proportions in each group using different definitions of likely voters. With the strict definition of likely voters, four out of five voters have made up their mind and there is limited opportunity for switching or persuasion. However, if you choose a looser likely voter screen (or none at all), there are more voters whose minds aren’t made up and more undecideds—together, the malleable portion of the electorate.

Table 3

Does it matter?

Which likely voter screen is selected determines how much of the sample is open to persuasion or malleable. This only matters if the partisan composition of undecideds and potential switchers is different from those whose mind is made up. In many (perhaps most) years these groups don’t differ much in terms of past voting or current preference. In 2026, however, there is clear evidence that it matters a lot.

As shown in Table 4, Democrats have a substantial (11-point) margin among those whose mind is made up, but trail Republicans by 5 points among those who would consider a different candidate. This is actually bad news for Republicans, since it means that more voters who would consider a different candidate currently support the Republican House candidate. On the other hand, undecideds willing to express a preference are splitting heavily toward Democrats (57% to 38%). A Democratic tsunami depends upon getting these votes, which is not a sure thing.

Table 4

We can also compare these groups by how they voted in 2024. Those whose mind is made up voted for Harris 46%-43%. Those who are willing to consider voting for the opposing candidate voted for Trump 54%-21%, so there should be many more potential Republican votes in this group. Finally, those who are undecided voted for Trump 29%-22% (with 45% not voting in 2024). Republican hopes depend on defections among those currently intending to vote Democratic and persuasion and mobilization of those who are undecided.

If everyone stays put and the electorate is closer to the strict turnout scenario, this will be a blue tidal wave. Republicans won the 2024 House vote by nearly 3 points. If Democrats win the 2026 House vote by more than 10 points—many seemingly safe Republican seats will flip. On the other hand, if Republicans are able to recover some votes from those whose mind isn’t made, are currently undecided, or not voting, we would expect the Democratic margin to shrink to around 8 points: still a blue wave but consistent with more modest Democratic gains in the House. One set of assumptions (a strict likely voter screen and pushing undecided voters) leads to the former, while another (a looser likely voter screen and different treatments of undecideds) leads to the latter. A Democratic wave seems very likely, but the size of that wave is much harder to predict.

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But the sitting U.S. president disagrees with me. In August, Donald Trump posted to his social network Truth Social a tier-ranking of 34 U.S. presidents, with Joe Biden and Barack Obama joining Ulysses S. Grant in the “failures” tier, 18 presidents classified as “below average” (such as Calvin Coolidge) or “average” (Bill Clinton), four presidents as “near great” (James K. Polk), and six “great” presidents, including Abraham Lincoln, George Washington, Franklin D. Roosevelt, and Andrew Jackson. Trump himself stood alone at the top of his graphic, as “The Greatest.”

With the sitting U.S. president broaching the topic, I drafted a poll asking Americans to rate the U.S. presidents along a scale inspired by Trump’s: great, near-great, average, below average, and failure.

We find that the U.S. president Americans are most likely to rate as great is Lincoln: 57% call Lincoln great, and another 24% near-great. Next up are Washington (52% great) and John F. Kennedy (37%) great.

Trump is a divisive figure. 20% of Americans say Trump is a great president, the 9th most out of the 45 U.S. presidents. But 48% say Trump is a failure, by far the biggest share for any president.

Other presidents with high negative ratings are Biden (35% say he was a failure) and Richard Nixon (28%).

Many of the U.S.’s 45 presidents are significantly less well-known. 25% or more of Americans aren’t sure how to rate such prominent presidents as John Adams, Ulysses S. Grant, Andrew Jackson, or Woodrow Willson. Another 17 presidents are largely forgotten: 40% or more of Americans aren’t sure how to rate Grover Cleveland , Rutherford B. Hayes, Martin Van Buren, or 14 others, and most of those who do rate them opt for the middling “average.”

Many recent presidents divide American opinion along party lines. We calculated a net rating for each president: the share who rate them great or near-great minus the share who rate them below average or a failure. By this metric, Obama, Biden, and Trump all stand out as particularly polarizing. 87% of Democrats say Obama was great or near-great, and only 3% rate him as below average or a failure, a net rating among Democrats of +84. In contrast, Obama has a net rating of -55 among Republicans. Biden is +32 among Democrats and -83 among Republicans. And Trump has the widest partisan gap of any president: -87 among Democrats and +65 among Republicans.

Other presidents with big partisan splits in their ratings include Ronald Reagan (-8 among Democrats and +70 among Republicans for a difference of 78 points), George H.W. Bush (a 38-point gap), George W. Bush (49 points), Jimmy Carter (65 points), Lyndon Johnson (38 points), and Bill Clinton (72 points). One 19th Century president also stands out: the populist Andrew Jackson, who is -11 among Democrats and +39 among Republicans, a 50-point gap.

There is little or no partisan split in the ratings of other presidents who fall largely outside of living memory, including Lincoln, Washington, Kennedy, and Teddy Roosevelt.

Trump’s ratings of the presidents overlap imperfectly with those of Americans as a whole. 58% of Americans say Trump — who rated himself as the greatest U.S. president — is below average (10%) or a failure (48%). Lincoln, Washington, Franklin Roosevelt, and Thomas Jefferson are rated highly by both Trump and the American people, but far fewer Americans agree with Trump that Andrew Jackson (10%) or Woodrow Willson (5%) were great presidents.

While Trump put Teddy Roosevelt in the “near-great” category, 32% of Americans say he was great — the fourth-highest behind Lincoln, Washington, and Franklin Roosevelt.

Almost no Americans agree with Trump applying “failure” to Grant (2%) or Warren Harding (5%). Many Americans do agree with Trump that BIden was a failure as a president (35%, against just 10% who say Biden was great), but Trump’s placement of Obama in the cellar is more controversial: 31% of Americans say Obama was a great president, and 19% say he was a failure.

It’s unsurprising that few Americans have strong opinions about many 19th Century presidents. Most Americans (72%) say they know a “a little” about U.S. presidential history, while 7% say they know nothing at all about it and 21% know a lot. Democrats and Republicans are about equally likely to say they know a lot about presidential history (24% vs. 22%), while college graduates are twice as likely as non-college graduates to do so (32% vs. 16%) and men are more likely to do so than are women (28% vs. 16%). 34% of Americans who follow current events most of the time say they know a lot about presidents, compared to 13% of everyone else.

Americans who say they know a lot about presidential history — or “history buffs,” for short — are much more likely to have strong opinions about U.S. presidents. For well-known presidents, that means history buffs are more likely than all U.S. adult citizens to give positive rankings. 73% of history buffs and 57% of Americans say Lincoln was a great president, for example.

History buffs are more likely than all Americans to rate some of America’s more controversial presidents negatively. 9% of all Americans say Andrew Johnson was a failure as a president, compared to 21% of history buffs; 12% of Americans and 26% of history buffs say the same about Herbert Hoover. But the effect is smaller for some more recent polarizing presidents. 48% of both groups say Trump is a failure as president. And 31% in each group say Obama was great.

The chart below is interactive; click through the tabs to see how history buffs compare to all Americans for all 45 U.S. presidents. If you’re viewing this in an email client, you can view an interactive version here.

See the full results for this YouGov poll

Charting Opinions

What are top issues for Quebecers ahead of the 2026 provincial election?

Asked to pick up to three top issues in their October 5 election, Quebecers are most likely to name cost of living and inflation (58%) as one of the main issues by a significant margin. This far outpaces jobs and the economy, which only 17% of Quebecers name as a top issue. Instead, healthcare and housing are also commonly cited, by 43% and 34% of Quebecers respectively.

While Donald Trump remains a fixture in Canadian news, U.S.-Canada relations are less prominent of an issue at a provincial level: 21% of Quebecers name it as a top issue for the province. Only minorities of Quebecers name French and English language issues (7%) and Quebec independence (4%) as the most important issues. (Franchesca Fu)

Which fall activities do Americans plan to do?

Watching scary movies and consuming pumpkin-flavored foods or drinks top a list of 12 activities that the greatest shares of Americans have done or plan to do this fall. Nearly half say they will do each.

Fewer Americans (43%) say they will display Halloween decorations or hand out Halloween candy (39%). Around one-quarter say they will carve a pumpkin (29%), dress up in a Halloween costume (25%), visit a pumpkin patch (24%), take a child trick-or-treating (23%), or attend a Halloween party (23%). Smaller shares say they will play tricks on friends, family, or neighbors (18%), go on a hayride (13%), or visit a haunted house (13%). (Taylor Orth)

Quick Takes

• Bribes: 30% of Americans say a member of Congress would be very likely to accept a bribe if offered one, while 37% say they would be somewhat likely to accept, 12% not very likely, and 4% not at all likely

• Campaign contacts: In the past month, 45% of U.S. adults say they haven’t received any messages asking them to support a political candidate, while 14% say they’ve been contacted by Democratic candidates only, 10% by Republican candidates only, and 23% by candidates from both parties

• Computer intelligence: Between the names “artificial intelligence” and “super intelligence,” 53% say artificial intelligence is the better name, 9% say super intelligence is, and 23% have no preference

• Sexual assault: When Americans hear a women has accused a man of sexual assault, 53% of Americans — including 44% of men and 62% of women — say they’re more likely to believe the woman, while 5% of Americans, 7% of men, and 2% of women are more likely to believe the man, and the rest aren’t sure

• Airplanes: 13% of Americans say they are afraid of flying in airplanes, 29% are bothered slightly by it, and 51% are not at all afraid

• Deportations: 27% of Americans say the U.S. government should be able to deport immigrants to prisons in foreign countries they’re not from, and 53% say it should not be able to do this

• Pandemic: 46% of Americans say the coronavirus pandemic in the U.S. is over, and 36% say it’s still ongoing

• Texting: When texting, 27% of Americans say they always end messages with periods, while 28% often do this, 23% do it sometimes, 12% rarely, and 6% never

• Halloween decorations: 42% of Americans say the earliest acceptable time to put up Halloween decorations is between Oct. 1 and Oct. 15, while 18% say it’s between Oct. 16 and Oct. 30, 3% say on Halloween, and 6% say never. At the other end of the spectrum, 16% say between Labor Day and Sept. 30 and 3% say before Labor Day

Elsewhere

Polling media partnerships

• Economist + YouGov on the midterms, corruption, Iran, and more

• The 19th + YouGov on affordability, childcare costs, LGBTQ+ issues, immigration, and the Gen Z gender gap

Polling abroad

• How popular is Donald Trump in Europe? September 2026 (YouGov UK)

Polling in the press

• Opinion | Affordability Is a Winning Message for Democrats. But There’s an Even Better One. (New York Times)

• Deepfake nudes are flooding social media. Here’s what’s being done about it (USA Today)

• GLP-1s Are Rewriting the Story of Weight Loss and Mental Health (The Atlantic)

• AI agents have a normal-people problem (Axios)

• Gigi or Nana? The difficult process of picking a grandmother name. (Washington Post)

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Carl Bialik contributed to this newsletter.

Yesterday we reported on Democrats' big midterm lead in this week’s Economist/YouGov Poll. Also from this week’s poll:

• Three-quarters of Americans think most or many elected officials are corrupt

• Deal or annihilation? Americans lack consensus about how to end the Iran war

Plus polling on Trump and the media, democracy, economic statistics, Cuba, and transgender people.

Corruption

84% of Americans think that most (29%) or many (55%) of the people running the government are corrupt, according to the latest Economist / YouGov Poll. Only 14% think only a few are corrupt, and 2% say almost none.

More Americans see corruption as common at higher levels of government than at lower ones. 75% think most or many elected officials such as U.S. senators and representatives are corrupt, and 67% say the same about top officials such as cabinet officers or department heads. About half (52%) say the same about judges, and 39% about the mid- and low-level employees who work in government agencies.

Independents are more likely than Democrats and Republicans to say that many or most judges and elected officials are corrupt. Republicans are significantly less likely than Democrats or Independents to say that corruption is common among top officials such as Cabinet officers or department heads.

Americans are somewhat more likely to think there is more corruption among Republicans than among Democrats (30% vs. 22%). 37% think there is about the same amount of corruption in each party. Unsurprisingly, most Democrats and Republicans see corruption as more common within the other party: 67% of Democrats say Republicans are more corrupt and 56% of Republicans say Democrats are. Half (52%) of Independents say there is about the same amount of corruption in both parties. But among Independents who do choose a party, more than three times as many say Republicans are more corrupt than say Democrats are: 22% of all Independents say Republicans and 9% say Democrats.

Independents also are more likely than Democrats or Republicans to raise corruption as a problem even when asked a question that doesn’t mention it. The survey asked respondents to tell us in their own words what the most important problem facing the U.S. today is. With the help of an AI tool to analyze responses, we find that Independents name corruption and waste about twice as often as either Democrats or Republicans do (10% vs. 6% vs. 5%).

About one-third (36%) of Americans think the federal government is much or somewhat more corrupt than their state government, while only 13% say their state is more corrupt. Democrats are more likely than Republicans and Independents to say their state government has less corruption than the federal government.

45% of Americans think Donald Trump has used the presidency to enrich family and friends during his second term, which is far more than say he has run an open and transparent administration (18%) or has set a high moral standard (11%).

Iran

Most Americans disapprove of how Donald Trump is handling Iran, but there is no consensus over how to end the conflict, according to the latest Economist / YouGov Poll. 30% of U.S. adult citizens strongly or somewhat approve of how Trump is handling Iran, while 60% disapprove. The shares of Americans who hold these views have been steady in recent months.

Several questions about ways to end the war reveal a divided country. 35% of Americans say they would support making a deal with Iran that doesn’t require Iran to give up its enriched uranium, while 31% would oppose it, with 35% unsure.

There’s also limited support for the U.S. launching a much larger military campaign to force Iran to submit. Only 24% of Americans would support such a campaign, while 46% would not and 26% aren’t sure. 75% of Democrats wouldn’t support a bigger campaign, while 53% of Republicans would support it.

Trump said in a recent speech to the United Nations that his decision was whether to make a deal with Iran or to “annihilate the Islamic Republic.” Few Americans have confidence Trump would be likely to accomplish either option. 32% think Trump would probably or definitely succeed in annihilating Iran, while 19% think he would likely succeed in making a deal with Iran. Republicans are almost twice as likely to think Trump would likely succeed at annihilating Iran (59%) than think he would be likely to successfully make a deal (34%).

Quick Takes

All of this week’s Quick Takes are among Election Day registered voters — those U.S. adult citizens who either are registered to vote or who say they plan to register before Election Day.

• 57% say the way Donald Trump treats journalists is unacceptable and 29% say it is acceptable

• 66% say Trump should not be allowed to bar news organizations whose coverage he dislikes from the White House, while 21% say he should

• 65% are somewhat or completely dissatisfied with the way democracy is working in the United States today, and 29% are satisfied. Democrats are the most likely to be dissatisfied (76%), followed by Independents (70%) and Republicans (49%)

• 64% would rather have a member of Congress who compromises to get things done than one who sticks to their principles, no matter what (36%)

• 56% somewhat (31%) or completely (25%) distrust the data the federal government reports about the economy, and 35% trust it

• Half (50%) think there are more unemployed people than the government’s numbers show, while 20% think the numbers are accurate

• 60% would somewhat or strongly oppose the U.S. using military force to overthrow the government of Cuba, and 20% support it. More Republicans support than opposite (41% vs. 33%)

Final Chart

This newsletter was written by David Montgomery, Taylor Orth, and Carl Bialik

See a version of this report on the YouGov website, plus the toplines and crosstabs for the September 25 - 28, 2026 Economist/YouGov Poll

Methodology: The poll was conducted among 1,563 U.S. adult citizens, including 1,429 who reported that they were currently registered to vote or planned to register before the election in November. Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel to be representative of U.S. adult citizens. A random sample (stratified by gender, age, race, education, geographic region, and voter registration) was selected from the 2019 American Community Survey. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, U.S. region, 2024 presidential vote, 2020 election turnout and presidential vote, baseline party identification, and current voter registration status. 2024 presidential vote, at time of weighting, was estimated to be 48% Harris and 50% Trump. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification is the respondent’s most recent answer given around November 8, 2024, and is weighted to the estimated distribution at that time (31% Democratic, 33% Republican). The margin of error for those who are currently registered to vote or who plan to register before the election in November is approximately 3.4%.

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In this week’s Economist/YouGov poll:

Likely voters prefer Democratic candidates over Republican candidates by 16 points in the November congressional elections, Democrats’ largest lead in any Economist / YouGov Poll this year so far. 53% of likely voters prefer the Democratic candidate and 38% prefer the Republican candidate; the lead is calculated by subtracting those percentages before rounding them.

This 16-point Democratic lead among likely voters is far larger than their 6-point lead among currently registered voters, or the 9-point Democratic lead among voters who are either registered to vote or say they will register by Election Day.

The Economist / YouGov Polls define likely voters as U.S. adult citizens who meet two criteria: (1) They either are registered to vote or say they will be registered to vote by the November elections; and (2) They either say they will definitely vote in November or say they have already voted.

Almost all Democrats (93%) say they will vote for the Democratic candidate in their district, while almost as many Republicans say they’ll vote for the Republican candidate (87%). But Independents are backing Democrats by a 2-to-1 margin (59% vs. 27%).

Within the group of likely voters, Democratic candidates lead Republican candidates among men (49% vs. 42%), women (57% vs. 34%), college graduates (58% vs. 35%), and non-college graduates (50% vs. 40%). 45- to 64-year-olds are closely divided (46% vs. 45%), but Democrats lead among 18- to 29-year-olds (72% vs. 16%), 30- to 44-year-olds (58% vs. 35%), and likely voters who are 65 and older (49% vs. 42%).

Democrats have led among Independent likely voters in all Economist / YouGov Polls this month, but their lead has grown since early September. In the September 4 - 8, 2026 poll, Democrats had a 24-point lead among Independents; in the September 25 - 28 poll, that lead is up to 32 points. The Democratic lead among Independent likely voters has grown among men (+26 points, from +16), women (+43 from +31), 18- to 44-year-olds (+50 from +42), adults 45 and older (+21 from +14), and non-college graduates (+29 from +11). The Democratic edge among Independent likely voters who are college graduates remains large but has dropped slightly during this period (+36 from +39).

The 16-point Democratic lead among likely voters is larger than any lead Democrats held among a similarly defined group in any Economist / YouGov Poll during the 2018 congressional elections, in which Democrats recaptured the House of Representatives but lost seats in the U.S. Senate. Democrats’ largest lead in 2018 among registered voters who said they will definitely vote was 11 points in the September 23 - 25, 2025 Economist / YouGov Poll.

— Carl Bialik contributed to this article

See a version of this report on the YouGov website, plus the toplines and crosstabs for the September 25 - 28, 2026 Economist/YouGov Poll

Methodology: The poll was conducted among 1,563 U.S. adult citizens, including 1,429 who reported that they were currently registered to vote or planned to register before the election in November. Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel to be representative of U.S. adult citizens. A random sample (stratified by gender, age, race, education, geographic region, and voter registration) was selected from the 2019 American Community Survey. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, U.S. region, 2024 presidential vote, 2020 election turnout and presidential vote, baseline party identification, and current voter registration status. 2024 presidential vote, at time of weighting, was estimated to be 48% Harris and 50% Trump. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification is the respondent’s most recent answer given around November 8, 2024, and is weighted to the estimated distribution at that time (31% Democratic, 33% Republican). The margin of error for those who are currently registered to vote or who plan to register before the election in November is approximately 3.4%.

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Yesterday we reported on the state of the midterm elections in this week’s Economist/YouGov Poll. Also from this week’s poll:

• Half of Americans expect the Iran war to continue for at least another year

• Americans are split in whom they sympathize with more in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict

• Many Americans expect big benefits from AI but concerns are rising quickly

Plus polling on foreign policy, Donald Trump, congressional leaders, the United Nations, and the Kennedy Center.

Iran

About half (52%) of Americans think the war in Iran will last at least another year, according to the latest Economist / YouGov Poll. 40% think it will last at least another month but less than a year, 6% more than a week but less than a month, and only 3% a week or less.

As the war has lasted longer, Americans’ expectations for how much longer it will last have grown. That marks the largest share to expect the war to last another year or more in Economist / YouGov polling, up from 50% who said so in August, 46% in July, and 32% when the question was first asked in early March, soon after the war began. 69% of Democrats and 58% of Independents now expect the war to last another year or more, compared with 28% of Republicans. Republicans who say they are MAGA supporters are less likely to expect a long war: 22% expect the war to last another year or more, compared with 41% of non-MAGA Republicans.

A majority (57%) of Americans say that in hindsight going to war in Iran was the wrong decision, more than double the share who say it was the right decision (23%). That’s roughly the share who have said it was wrong since July, and slightly higher than the 51% who said it was the wrong decision when we first asked in April. Democrats say the war was the wrong decision rather than the right one by 88% to 2%, and Independents by 62% to 12%. About half (53%) of Republicans say it was the right decision, down from 68% in April; 21% say it was the wrong decision, up from 12%. MAGA identity is linked to Republican views on the issue: 69% of MAGA Republicans say going to war was the right decision, compared with 30% of non-MAGA Republicans.

Most Americans (61%) say we should make a deal to end the Iran war as quickly as possible; 14% say we shouldn’t. Support for ending the war as quickly as possible has fallen 9 percentage points since April, when 70% said we should end it quickly. Most of this shift has been among Republicans: 44% of Republicans now want a quick deal, down from 54% in April.

Few Americans believe Donald Trump has been an effective negotiator with Iran: 23% say he has been very or somewhat effective in negotiating with Iran, down from 29% in July; 61% now say he is very or somewhat ineffective. The drop in ratings of Trump’s effectiveness as a negotiator is concentrated among Republicans: 52% now say he has been effective in negotiations with Iran, down from 67%.

Half (50%) of Americans would strongly or somewhat support impeaching Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth for starting a war with Iran without authorization by Congress, and 30% would oppose it. Democrats support impeaching Hegseth by 77% to 14% and Independents by 50% to 22%. Republicans oppose impeaching Hegseth by 53% to 26%.

Israel-Palestine

The latest Economist/YouGov Poll finds that Americans are split almost evenly on where their sympathies lie in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict: 26% say more with the Israelis, 25% more with the Palestinians, and 21% say their sympathies lie equally with both sides. That’s the narrowest gap between the two sides that Economist / YouGov Polls have recorded since first asking the question in 2011. A week after the Hamas attack on Israel in October 2023, 48% said the Israelis and 10% said the Palestinians. The gap narrowed to single digits by early August 2025 (29% for the Israelis vs. 26% for the Palestinians) and has stayed there for the past year.

Almost all movement is on one side of the aisle: Democrats now say their sympathies lie more with the Palestinians than with the Israelis (44% vs. 7%). A majority (56%) of Republicans say they sympathize more with the Israelis, and only 6% say the Palestinians. In October 2023, more Democrats said they sympathized more with the Israelis than said the Palestinians (34% vs. 16%); Republicans were overwhelmingly more likely to say the Israelis (73% vs. 3%).

The divide by age is nearly as wide as the one by party. Three times as many adults under 30 say they sympathize more with the Palestinians than with the Israelis (37% vs. 12%). Among Americans 65 and older, only 19% sympathize more with the Palestinians and 42% with the Israelis.

AI

A large and rising share of Americans think artificial intelligence poses serious risks of causing harm, though many Americans also expect AI to have positive benefits, according to the latest YouGov / Economist Poll.

Overall, 42% of U.S. adult citizens say the risks of AI causing harm are very serious, while 31% say they’re somewhat serious, 20% slightly serious, and only 7% not at all serious.

Democrats are especially likely to worry about AI: 53% of them say AI risks are very serious, compared to 45% of Independents and 29% of Republicans. Republicans who are MAGA supporters are comparatively sanguine about AI’s risks, with only 23% of them calling the risks very serious. 44% of non-MAGA Republicans say AI risks are very serious, similar to the share of Independents who say this.

Concern about AI has risen over the past month. The August 28 - 31, 2026 Economist / YouGov Poll found that 35% of Americans thought the risks of AI risk causing harm were very serious. That’s now risen to 42%. Much of this increase is driven by Democrats, the share of whom say AI risk is very serious has risen to 53% from 39%. Independents saying this have risen to 45% from 38%, while Republican concern has barely changed (29% now, 27% then).

But even as many Americans are concerned about the risks of AI, 47% also say AI will have many positive benefits, compared to 31% who say it won’t.

Among those Americans who say AI risk is very serious, 29% say AI will have many positive benefits and 53% say it won’t. Other Americans are far more likely than not to say AI will have positive benefits, including those who say AI risk is somewhat serious (51% vs. 21%), slightly serious (69% vs. 7%), and not at all serious (78% vs. 3%).

The Economist and YouGov asked respondents to describe the risks and benefits of AI in their own words, and classified the responses with an AI tool. The most commonly cited area of worry is the loss of human control, followed by job loss and harm to humans.

The most commonly mentioned expected benefits of AI are medical and health care advances, increased productivity, and scientific and technological advances.

Americans are more likely to trust Democrats more than Republicans to handle AI than to trust Republicans more (37% vs. 31%, with 33% trusting both parties equally). Likely voters — U.S. adult citizens who are either registered to vote or say they will be registered by the November elections, and who say they definitely will vote in November or already have voted — are especially likely to prefer Democrats on AI. 47% of likely voters prefer Democrats and 33% prefer Republicans, while all other American citizens are closely split (25% vs. 28%).

MAGA Republicans overwhelmingly trust Republicans more to handle AI (87%), but only 52% of non-MAGA Republicans do; 42% say they trust both parties equally on the issue.

Quick Takes

All of this week’s Quick Takes are among Election Day registered voters — those U.S. adult citizens who either are registered to vote or who say they plan to register before Election Day

• 59% say America’s standing in the world has worsened since Donald Trump became president again in 2025, 24% say it has improved, and 12% that it has stayed about the same

• 58% think the U.S. should remain a member of the United Nations and 18% think it should withdraw its membership. Democrats say remain by 78% to 7%, while Republicans are divided: 37% want to remain and 31% want to withdraw

• 51% rate the people Trump has chosen for positions in his administration as poor, while 14% say they are excellent, 19% good, and 10% fair

• 29% think Trump will demolish the Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts, 27% think he won’t, and 44% aren’t sure

• 59% think Congress should do much or somewhat more to oversee the Trump administration, while 25% say it should do about the same and 15% say it should do less

• Chuck Schumer has the lowest net favorability of the four congressional leaders: 27% view him very or somewhat favorably and 52% unfavorable (-25 net). Hakeem Jeffries is viewed favorably by 29% favorable and unfavorably by 41% unfavorable (-11 net), Mike Johnson is at 28% and 43% (-15 net), and John Thune is at 18% and 34% (-16 net)

  • 43% have a very or somewhat favorable opinion of their own member of Congress and 32% have an unfavorable opinion of them, for a net approval of +11, higher than any of the four congressional leaders

Final Chart

This newsletter was written by David Montgomery, Taylor Orth, and Carl Bialik

See a version of this report on the YouGov website, plus the toplines and crosstabs for the September 18 - 21, 2026 Economist/YouGov Poll

Methodology: The poll was conducted among 1,568 U.S. adult citizens, including 1,401 who reported that they were currently registered to vote or planned to register before the election in November. Respondents were selected from YouGov's opt-in panel to be representative of U.S. adult citizens. A random sample (stratified by gender, age, race, education, geographic region, and voter registration) was selected from the 2019 American Community Survey. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, U.S. region, 2024 presidential vote, 2020 election turnout and presidential vote, baseline party identification, and current voter registration status. 2024 presidential vote, at time of weighting, was estimated to be 48% Harris and 50% Trump. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification is the respondent's most recent answer given around November 8, 2024, and is weighted to the estimated distribution at that time (31% Democratic, 33% Republican). The margin of error for those who are currently registered to vote or who plan to register before the election in November is approximately 3.4%.

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In this week’s Economist/YouGov poll:

Democratic candidates lead Republican candidates by 14 points among likely voters in the upcoming midterm elections, according to the latest Economist / YouGov Poll. 52% of likely voters say they would vote for the Democratic candidate in their district, while only 38% would vote for the Republican candidate.

This is the largest lead Economist / YouGov Polls have found in the three weeks since beginning to ask registered voters how likely they are to vote in the congressional election. The poll defines likely voters as those U.S. adult citizens who are either registered to vote or say they will be registered to vote by the November elections, and who either say they will definitely vote in November or say they have already voted; 95% of likely voters are already registered to vote and 5% say they plan to register in time to vote.

Among Americans who are already registered to vote, Democrats have a 7-point lead (45% vs. 38%), which is the largest Democratic lead among this group since spring 2025, when Economist / YouGov Polls began asking about vote intent in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election. (This group does not include adult citizens who are not registered to vote but who say they will register to vote by Election Day.)

Another recent change to Economist / YouGov Polls as Election Day approaches: asking all respondents which of the congressional candidates in their district they plan to vote for, rather than asking which party they expect to support without naming candidates.

Almost all Democrats say they will support the Democratic candidate running in their district (93%), and almost all Republicans say they’ll support their local Republican candidate (90%). But Independents break by around two-to-one in favor of Democratic candidates (52% vs. 27%). Democrats lead among every major age group. They lead among voters without college degrees by 7 percentage points and among voters with college degrees by 22 points. Men are closely divided (44% Democratic vs. 47% Republican), while women prefer Democratic candidates by a 29-point margin (59% vs. 30%).

Likely voters who say they will vote for Democratic candidates for the House are more likely than supporters of Republican candidates to say they’re more enthusiastic about voting this year than in recent congressional elections (52% vs. 38%).

Among likely voters in states with U.S. Senate elections this year, 53% say they will vote for the Democratic candidate and 42% for the Republican candidate, an 11-point lead. The question names the candidates in each respondent’s state.

The big Democratic leads for Senate and House come as 34% of U.S. adult citizens strongly approve of Donald Trump’s job handling, and 61% disapprove — a net job approval of -27. That’s in line with recent months, and lower than Trump’s job approval over most of his second term and all of his first term.

YouGov asked respondents to pick which candidates they would support in four hypothetical matchups between two pairs of candidates:

• Two Democrats:

  • A Democratic socialist who supports Medicare for All, ending military aid to Israel, and abolishing ICE

  • A liberal Democrat who wants to protect Obamacare (ACA) and increase support for child care and housing, and who opposes tariffs

• And two Republicans:

  • A conservative Republican who supports tax cuts, repealing Obamacare, and a ban on most abortions

  • A MAGA Republican who supports mass deportations and always votes with Trump

We found that Democratic candidates have sizable leads among likely voters in all four scenarios. The “liberal Democrat” candidate has larger leads than the “Democratic socialist” candidate, and the “conservative Republican” candidate does better than the “MAGA Republican” candidate, but in all cases the candidate variations only affect the size of the Democratic lead, not which candidate is ahead. In the most one-sided matchup, the liberal Democrat leads the MAGA Republican by 22 points (58% vs. 36%). And in the closest matchup, the Democratic socialist leads the conservative Republican by 12 points (52% vs. 40%).

— Carl Bialik contributed to this article

See a version of this report on the YouGov website, plus the toplines and crosstabs for the September 18 - 21, 2026 Economist/YouGov Poll

Methodology: The poll was conducted among 1,568 U.S. adult citizens, including 1,401 who reported that they were currently registered to vote or planned to register before the election in November. Respondents were selected from YouGov's opt-in panel to be representative of U.S. adult citizens. A random sample (stratified by gender, age, race, education, geographic region, and voter registration) was selected from the 2019 American Community Survey. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, U.S. region, 2024 presidential vote, 2020 election turnout and presidential vote, baseline party identification, and current voter registration status. 2024 presidential vote, at time of weighting, was estimated to be 48% Harris and 50% Trump. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification is the respondent's most recent answer given around November 8, 2024, and is weighted to the estimated distribution at that time (31% Democratic, 33% Republican). The margin of error for those who are currently registered to vote or who plan to register before the election in November is approximately 3.4%.

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For more polling data and insights, visit our website or follow us on X, Threads, and Bluesky.

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Liberals are more likely than conservatives to value kids being self-reliant, considerate, curious, and independent, while conservatives are more likely to prize being obedient, well-behaved, good-mannered, and respectful of elders.

The value preferences come from a series of questions asking Americans to choose between two contrasting characteristics as the more important one for a child to be or have. Americans overall are more likely to prefer self-reliance over obedience (58% vs. 42%), being considerate over being well-behaved (54% vs. 46%), having good manners over being curious (61% vs. 39%), and having respect for elders over independence (65% vs. 35%).

Age, gender, and education are also associated with these parenting values.

Unsurprisingly, older Americans are more likely than younger adults to prize respect for elders: 80% of those 65 and older say this is more important than independence, compared to 53% of adults under 30.

This is also true across the ideological spectrum: Among liberals, moderates, and conservatives, those 45 and older are more likely than younger adults to value respect for elders over independence.

Americans without college degrees are evenly split about whether it’s more important for children to be self-reliant or obedient (51% vs. 49%), but most college graduates prefer self-reliance (70% vs. 30%). Women are more likely than men to prefer self-reliance (62% of women and 53% of men pick it).

On the topic of work, the Economist / YouGov Poll found that younger or more liberal Americans are more likely to prefer a shorter work week than are older or more conservative Americans.

Overall, 13% of Americans say the normal work week for a healthy work-life balance should be less than 30 hours, while 40% say it should be 30 to 35 hours, 43% say it should be 36 to 40 hours, and 4% say it should be more than 40 hours.

But 69% of adults under 30 say the ideal work week is 35 hours or less, compared to 36% of those 65 and older. 75% of very liberal Americans think a shorter work week is better, compared to 65% of Americans who are liberal but not very liberal, 53% of moderates, 43% of those who are conservative but not very conservative, and 32% of very conservative Americans.

Remote work is highly popular. 72% of Americans strongly support (43%) or somewhat support (29%) requiring employers to let people work from home when their job can be done remotely; only 15% oppose this.

Support for remote work is higher among parents of young children than among other adults, among women than among men, among college graduates than among non-graduates, and among liberals than among moderates or among conservatives.

Americans are closely divided about whether it’s better to work a job that pays well, or one that you’re passionate about (48% vs. 52%). Older Americans and college graduates are more likely than younger adults and non-graduates to value passion over pay. So are those out of the workforce: 46% of those who work full-time say passion is more important than pay, as do 53% of part-time workers, 56% of the unemployed, and 58% of retirees.

Charting Opinions

Liberals are increasingly likely to worry about AI ending humanity

In 2023, 42% of liberals were concerned about an AI apocalypse, similar to the 43% of moderates and 45% of conservatives who were. But today 61% of liberals worry about an AI apocalypse, a 19-point increase over less than three years. Concern among conservatives has barely changed: 44% now and 45% then. Moderates have become slightly more worried about AI ending humanity (49% now vs. 43% then). (David H. Montgomery)

Younger adults are more likely than older ones to say it’s acceptable to wear T-shirts and sweatpants to work

Adults under 45 are more likely than older Americans to say it’s acceptable for men in the office to wear jeans (81% vs. 65%), T-shirts (73% vs. 39%), and graphic T-shirts (43% vs. 17%). They’re also more likely to say it’s acceptable for men to wear shorts (37% vs. 21%) and sweatpants (27% vs. 11%). Americans 45 and older are more likely than younger adults to say it’s acceptable for men in the office to wear slacks (98% vs. 75%), blazers (97% vs. 79%), and dress pants (97% vs. 82%). (Jamie Ballard)

Quick Takes

• Macklemore: 27% of Americans agree with the decision to drop Macklemore from Ed Sheeran’s tour for making pro-Palestinian statements on stage, and 31% disagree

• Political artists: 38% of Americans say they have ever stopped listening to a musician they like because of something they said about politics, and 46% say they haven’t

• Gambling: 43% of Americans say legalized gambling is having a negative impact on sports, while 9% say it’s having a positive impact and 31% say its impact has been neither positive nor negative

• Development engine: 26% of Americans, 10% of Democrats, and 49% of Republicans strongly or somewhat agree with Donald Trump’s recent post saying that “AI, and Data Centers, will be the Greatest Economic Development Engine in History — Bigger than Oil, Gold, Diamonds, or even the Internet,” while 56% of Americans, 81% of Democrats, and 29% of Republicans disagree

Elsewhere

Polling media partnerships

• Economist + YouGov on the midterms, terrorism, and more

Polling abroad

• Britons are increasingly worried about the impact of AI (YouGov UK)

Polling in the press

• Analysis | The midterms are all about control (Washington Post)

• Is there an anti-AI supermajority? (Silver Bulletin | Nate Silver’s Substack)

• Hispanic voters are moving back toward Democrats (FiftyPlusOne | Substack)

• What is ‘ghost posting’? Why Gen Z is hiding their Instagram posts (USA Today)

• How Ed Sheeran’s tour became a flashpoint over Gaza and free speech (NPR)

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Carl Bialik contributed to this newsletter.

In this week’s Economist/YouGov poll:

• Independents give Democrats a big midterms lead among likely voters

• Republicans are less worried about terrorism than they used to be

Plus polling on $5,000 checks, inflation, handling the economy, political violence, life after death, and doctor-assisted suicide.

The November elections

Democrats have a double-digit lead over Republicans in vote preference for Congress among likely voters, according to the latest Economist / YouGov Poll. 51% of likely voters say they’ll vote for the Democratic candidate in their districts, while 39% would vote for the Republican candidate — an 11-point lead for Democrats.

The Economist / YouGov Poll defines likely voters as U.S. adult citizens who meet two criteria: They are either registered to vote (74% of all adult citizens) or say they will be registered to vote by the November elections (5%), and they either say they will definitely vote in November or say they have already voted (73% of those who are registered or plan to register, and 57% of all citizens). Respondents were asked about the candidates for the U.S. House of Representatives in their district by the candidates’ names.

Among likely voters, about 90% of Democrats and about 90% of Republicans say they’ll vote for their party’s candidate. But Independents favor Democrats by about a two-to-one ratio: 54% say they’ll vote for Democratic candidates and 27% for Republican candidates.

Men who are likely voters are evenly split between Democratic and Republican candidates (45% vs. 45%), while women favor Democrats by more than 20 points (56% vs. 35%). Adults under 30 overwhelmingly support Democratic candidates (68% vs. 27%), while Democrats lead among 30- to 44-year-olds (51% vs. 34%) and those 65 and older (50% vs. 43%); 45- to 64-year-olds are evenly divided (45% vs. 45%). Democrats win likely voters without college degrees by 6 points (48% vs. 43%), and have a 19-point lead among those with college degrees.

Democrats have led by double digits among likely voters in the past two Economist / YouGov Polls. Their 11-point lead among likely voters is much larger than their 4-point advantage among all registered voters.

Democrats lead Republicans big among likely voters, by 51% to 39%. In contrast, Republicans have the advantage among the less definite voters who are not considered likely voters: among those who say they’ll probably vote, 28% would vote for Democrats and 49% for Republicans, while among those who say they maybe, probably won’t, or definitely won’t vote, Republicans have a 3-point lead (25% vs. 28%).

Overall, 36% of U.S. adult citizens strongly or somewhat approve of how Trump is handling his job as president, and 59% disapprove, for a net job approval of -23. Among likely voters, 40% approve and 59% disapprove, a net of -19. Trump’s net approval among U.S. adult citizens is up from his nadir earlier this summer, but still far below Trump’s net approval at this point in his first term.

Among Election Day registered voters — those either registered to vote or who say they’ll register by Election Day — 49% strongly disapprove of Trump’s job performance, and 80% of them say they will definitely vote in November. The same is true of the 19% who strongly approve of Trump: 80% say they’ll definitely vote. A slightly smaller 68% of Election Day registered voters who somewhat approve of Trump (who make up 20% of the overall group) say they’ll definitely vote.

The 8% of Election Day registered voters who somewhat disapprove of Trump lean conservative: 57% of them voted for Trump in 2024, and only 20% voted for Kamala Harris; in 2026 more say they’ll vote for Republicans than for Democrats (40% vs. 27%). But only 39% of them say they’ll definitely vote in November. Only 33% of this group follows political news most of the time — compared to 53% of all Election Day registered voters.

Most Americans say their view of Trump has not changed since he was elected in 2024. Only 29% say their view of Trump has changed at least a little, while 71% say it hasn’t changed at all. But Republicans and Trump’s 2024 voters are more likely than others to say their opinion of Trump has changed. 38% of Republicans say they’ve changed how they see Trump at least a little, as have 36% of his 2024 voters. Only 18% of Democrats and 17% of Harris voters have changed their view of Trump, compared to 30% of Independents and 34% of non-voters in 2024. 29% of Republicans who say they’re MAGA supporters have changed their view of Trump, as have 49% of non-MAGA Republicans.

91% of Republicans who say their opinion of Trump hasn’t changed since the 2024 election plan to vote for a Republican in their House district this year; that figure is only 77% among Republicans whose opinion of Trump has changed.

Terrorism

Twenty-five years after September 11, 2001, the vast majority of Americans say the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon changed the country, according to the latest Economist / YouGov Poll. What has changed is which groups of Americans worry about terrorism. On multiple measures, Republicans have grown less alarmed about terrorism, while the change among Democrats’ views has been smaller and sometimes in the opposite direction.

Two-thirds of Americans say terrorism is an immediate and serious threat (21%) or a somewhat serious threat (45%) to the U.S.; 21% say it is a minor threat and 3% say it is no threat at all. Today, Democrats and Republicans are about equally likely to view terrorism as an immediate and serious threat (22% vs. 25%), but that has not always been the case. Just before Donald Trump’s inauguration in January 2025, Republicans were about twice as likely as Democrats to believe terrorism posed an immediate and serious threat: 59% did compared to only 29% of Democrats.

About half (49%) of Americans — including similar shares of Democrats (48%) and Republicans (51%) — believe a terrorist attack against the U.S. in the next 12 months is very or somewhat likely. In September 2021, when the question was last asked, Democrats were 33 percentage points less likely than Republicans to say an attack was likely in the next 12 months (48% vs. 81%).

36% of Americans say the U.S. government should be doing more to fight terrorism, 32% say it is doing enough, and 10% say it is doing too much. Fewer Americans say more should be done to fight terrorism than at any time since the question was first asked in May 2016, and down from 53% saying so in January 2025. Today Republicans are only slightly more likely than Democrats to say more should be done (46% vs. 39%); in January 2025, the gap was far wider (70% vs. 44%).

Roughly half (52%) of Americans say it is closer to their view that the U.S. will be safer from terrorism in the long run if it stays out of other countries’ affairs, while 48% say the U.S. will be safer if it confronts the countries and groups that promote terrorism. Democrats are more likely to say staying out of other countries’ affairs will make the U.S. safer (70% vs. 30% who say confronting them will), while the reverse is true for Republicans (28% say staying out will make us safer vs. 72% who say confronting will). Overall views on this topic have changed little since it was first asked 16 years ago, but the parties have pulled apart. Democratic support for confronting is at its lowest point since the question was first asked, and the 42-point partisan gap is wider than it has ever been.

44% of Americans say we are much or somewhat safer from terrorist attacks now than we were in 2001, 25% say about the same, and 21% say we are less safe. Far more Americans now say we are safer than in September 2022, the last time the Economist / YouGov Poll asked, when 31% said safer, and it is the highest share since January 2014. The change is almost entirely among Republicans, 55% of whom now say the U.S. is safer, up from 19% four years ago; Democrats are unchanged at 44%.

The survey asked Americans whether it was a mistake to send troops to fight in each of seven wars — World War I, World War II, Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Iran. The highest share says sending troops to Vietnam was a mistake (54%), followed by Iran (49%), Iraq (48%), and Afghanistan (43%); fewer say this about Korea (28%), World War I (14%), and World War II (11%).

Democrats and Republicans differ most in their opinion as to whether sending troops to Iran was a mistake: 74% of Democrats say it was a mistake, compared with 21% of Republicans. Since June 2024, Democrats have grown more likely to call every other war a mistake, and Republicans less so. About Afghanistan, the share of Democrats viewing it as a mistake increased to 59% from 47%, while Republicans seeing it as a mistake fell to 27% from 37%.

Quick Takes

All of this week’s Quick Takes are among Election Day registered voters — those U.S. adult citizens who either are registered to vote or who say they plan to register before Election Day

• 48% strongly or somewhat favor the government in Washington sending $5,000 to every adult citizen in the U.S., and 40% oppose it. Republicans favor the payment by 61% to 29%, while Democrats oppose it by 48% to 39%; Independents are divided (41% favor, 44% oppose)

• Only 21% think Donald Trump definitely or probably would issue the $5,000 dividend he promised if Republicans keep control of Congress, and 57% think he would not. 45% of Republicans and only 4% of Democrats think he would do it

• 64% blame spending by the federal government a lot for inflation and 63% say the same about large corporations seeking maximum profits, ahead of tariffs (56%) and Trump (55%)

• 60% think an effective president would be able to control inflation, while 25% think that is beyond any president’s control. Democrats are far more likely than Republicans to think an effective president would control it (78% vs. 44%)

• 41% think the Democratic Party does a better job than the Republican Party of handling the economy, compared to 37% who say Republicans do. But Republicans lead on crime (43% vs. 33%), national defense (43% vs. 34%), and immigration (43% vs. 39%); the parties are even on handling the war in Iran

• 87% think political violence is a very big problem (43%) or somewhat of a problem (44%) in the U.S. today, and 75% think there is more political violence now than 10 years ago

• 31% think most political violence in the U.S. is committed by people on the left and 29% say most comes from people on the right, while 27% think both groups commit it equally

• 59% believe there is a life after death, 16% do not, and 24% aren’t sure. Republicans are more likely than Democrats to believe in one (74% vs. 50%)

• 61% think it should be legal for a doctor to help end the life of a terminally ill patient who has given a clear indication of their wish to die, and 19% think it should be illegal

Final Chart

This newsletter was written by David Montgomery, Taylor Orth, and Carl Bialik

See a version of this report on the YouGov website, plus the toplines and crosstabs for the September 11 - 14, 2026 Economist/YouGov Poll

Methodology: The poll was conducted among 1,596 U.S. adult citizens, including 1,461 who reported that they were currently registered to vote or planned to register before the election in November. Respondents were selected from YouGov's opt-in panel to be representative of U.S. adult citizens. A random sample (stratified by gender, age, race, education, geographic region, and voter registration) was selected from the 2019 American Community Survey. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, U.S. region, 2024 presidential vote, 2020 election turnout and presidential vote, baseline party identification, and current voter registration status. 2024 presidential vote, at time of weighting, was estimated to be 48% Harris and 50% Trump. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification is the respondent's most recent answer given around November 8, 2024, and is weighted to the estimated distribution at that time (31% Democratic, 33% Republican). The margin of error for those who are currently registered to vote or who plan to register before the election in November is approximately 3.3%.

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I also distinctly remember being focused on what this meant for what happened next. That night I watched grainy TV news footage of explosions in Afghanistan — actually related to al Qaeda’s assassination of the anti-Taliban warlord Ahmad Shah Massoud — wondering if they were U.S. strikes.

Most people my age also have vivid memories of the September 11, 2001 attacks, a new YouGov poll finds. Writer Jamie Ballard reports that 75% of Americans remember where they were when they heard about the attacks. That includes 90% of those 30 and older. Very few adults under 30 (15%) say they remember where they were when they heard about the attacks, while 47% say they weren’t born yet.

A majority (54%) of Americans say those born after 2001 generally don’t have a good understanding of the September 11 attacks, while 23% say they do. Among 18- to 29-year-olds, 46% say people born after 2001 have a good understanding of the Sept. 11 attacks, and 37% say they don’t. Most people 30 and older say people born after 2001 don’t have a good understanding

We also find that 51% of Americans think September 11 should be a national holiday, and 26% say it shouldn’t. 62% of Republicans, 49% of Independents, and 43% of Democrats say it should be a holiday.

See much more polling about what Americans feel about the September 11 attacks on their 25th anniversary in our full article.

Charting Opinions

Republicans and Democrats are more likely than Independents to agree with the people in their lives about politics

Few Americans (6%) say they and their friends completely agree about politics. 36% of Americans — including 50% of Democrats and 41% of Republicans — say they mostly agree with their friends about politics. 45% of Americans say they sometimes agree and sometimes disagree with their friends about politics. Only 4% say they mostly disagree with their friends about politics and a mere 1% say they completely disagree with their friends about politics.

Americans who have a college degree are more likely than those without a college degree to say they and their friends completely or mostly agree about politics (50% vs. 38%). (Jamie Ballard)

Quick Takes

• $5,000: 18% of Americans — including 8% of Democrats and 34% of Republicans — say Donald Trump’s promise to send $5,000 to Americans if Republicans keep control of Congress in November makes them much or somewhat more likely to vote for Republicans, while 29% of Americans, 55% of Democrats, and 4% of Republicans say it makes them less likely to vote Republican

• Political violence: 72% of Americans, including 73% of Democrats and 77% of Republicans, say it’s never justified for citizens to resort to violence to achieve political goals

• Diapers: 67% of Americans say they could definitely change a baby’s dirty diaper without instructions, including 56% of men and 79% of women

  • 61% of men and 17% of women say they could definitely change a flat tire without instructions

• Clancy: 46% of Americans think Lindsay Clancy should have been found guilty of murder for killing her children, while 21% think she should have been found not guilty by reason of insanity

• Racial inequality: 59% of Americans say colleges should try to reduce racial inequalities between students, but only 17% say treating students differently based on their race is ever justified in order to reduce racial inequality

• The middle finger: 33% of Americans never give someone the middle finger, while 4% say they do so every day, 8% a few times a week, 11% a few times a month, 14% a few times a year, and 24% less often but still sometimes

Elsewhere

Polling media partnerships

• Economist + YouGov on the Supreme Court, gender inequality, and more

Polling abroad

• Would Britons support reintroducing the two child benefit cap? (YouGov UK)

• Most Britons still say Reform UK are ‘very sleazy’ (YouGov UK)

Polling in the press

• A Year After Charlie Kirk’s Death, Turning Point Focuses on 2028 and Vance (Washington Post)

• Game on: November elections kick into high gear with control of Congress in the balance (The Guardian)

• Republicans descend on Dallas in search of jolt at midterm convention (USA Today)

• Sam Altman calls AI ‘non-negotiable,’ comparing it to electricity as 39% of Americans say it does more harm than good (Yahoo Finance)

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Taylor Orth contributed to this newsletter.

In this week’s Economist/YouGov poll:

• Only 31% of Americans approve of the Supreme Court

• More than twice as many Americans say the country needs to go further for gender equality than say it’s gone too far

Plus polling on trust in the government, an overhaul to the political system, election fairness, mail-in voting, and wealth limits.

The Supreme Court

About one-third (31%) of Americans strongly or somewhat approve of how the U.S. Supreme Court is handling its job, according to the latest Economist / YouGov Survey, while 53% disapprove.

Almost all Democrats disapprove of the Supreme Court’s job handling (12% approve and 79% disapprove), while most Republicans approve (63% vs. 26%). Republicans who say they’re MAGA supporters overwhelmingly approve of the Supreme Court’s job handling (73% vs. 19%), while non-MAGA Republicans are more closely divided (49% vs. 36%).

Only 9% of Americans say the political viewpoint of the U.S. Supreme Court is liberal, while 25% call it moderate and 45% say it’s conservative. The share of Democrats who say the Supreme Court is conservative is twice as large as the share of Republicans who say that (68% vs. 34%).

Americans who closely follow the news are more likely than others to identify the Supreme Court as conservative. 57% of those who follow what’s going on in government and public affairs most of the time say this, compared to 46% of those who follow the news some of the time and 26% of those who follow the news less often. The share who say the Supreme Court is liberal is similar in all three groups; people who follow the news less often are more likely to be unsure about the Supreme Court’s ideology.

The 45% of Americans who say the Supreme Court is conservative is similar to the shares who have said that when Economist / YouGov Polls over the past several years have asked this question, and generally larger than the shares who said this in 2020 and 2021.

Americans are more likely to say the Supreme Court has given the president too much power than to say it has given too little power (45% vs. 7%), while 29% say the court has given the president about the right amount of power.

Most MAGA Republicans say the Supreme Court has given the president about the right amount of power (63%), while 20% of them say it has given the president too little power and almost none (3%) say it has given him too much. Among non-MAGA Republicans, 29% say the Supreme Court has given the president too much power, 47% say the right amount of power, and 4% say too little power.

Few Americans (11%) say the Supreme Court is biased against Trump, while 40% say it’s biased in his favor and 24% say the court treats Trump fairly. Democrats are most likely to say the court has a pro-Trump bias (74%), while Republicans are most likely to say it’s not biased (45%).

The Economist and YouGov asked a random 50% of respondents whether “presidents” should always obey Supreme Court orders, even if they think those orders are wrong. The other half of respondents were asked whether President Trump should obey Supreme Court orders he thinks are wrong. 59% of those asked about presidents say they should always obey Supreme Court orders, while 68% of those asked about Trump say he should.

Democrats and Independents are more likely to say Trump should obey the Supreme Court than to say presidents should, while similar shares of Republicans say yes to each.

Gender equality

More Americans have a very or somewhat favorable opinion of feminism than an unfavorable one (50% vs. 30%), the latest Economist / YouGov Poll finds. Soon after the death of Gloria Steinem, we asked Americans about her legacy and the state of gender equality.

More Americans say Steinem had a very or somewhat positive impact than say she had a negative one (38% vs. 13%); 36% are not sure about her impact. Far more Democrats say Steinem’s impact was positive than negative (63% vs. 2%). Republicans are divided: 27% positive to 25% negative. More women than men say her impact was positive (43% vs. 32%).

Nearly half (45%) of Americans believe the country has not gone far enough in promoting equality between men and women. 38% say the country has gone about the right amount toward promoting gender equality, and 17% say it has gone too far. 75% of Democrats say it hasn’t gone far enough, compared with 42% of Independents and 21% of Republicans. More women than men (57% vs. 33%) say the country has not gone far enough toward gender equality.

More Americans believe men are more advantaged in society than say the same about women (45% vs. 14%). One-third (33%) say neither men nor women have an advantage today. Women are more likely than men to say there are more advantages in being a man (53% vs. 37%) and less likely than men to say there are more advantages in being a woman (7% vs. 20%).

The latest poll also re-asked a question from earlier decades on what form of address Americans prefer for women: “Miss and Mrs.” or “Ms.” 54% of Americans prefer the former, while 30% prefer the latter. That is the narrowest gap we could find in the question’s roughly 50-year history.

When the Roper Organization first asked a similar question in 1973, 75% of adults preferred Miss and Mrs. and only 11% preferred Ms. It was 66% to 21% in 1983, and 60% to 26% when CBS News last asked in 1997. The split today between Democrats and Republicans is bigger than the split between men and women. 71% of Republicans prefer Miss and Mrs. compared to only 37% of Democrats. Half (49%) of women prefer Miss and Mrs., as do 60% of men.

Only 17% of Americans strongly or somewhat agree that “women should take care of running their homes and leave running the country up to men,” and 78% disagree. In October 1971, Louis Harris found that roughly half of adults agreed with this statement.

Quick Takes

All of this week’s Quick Takes are among Election Day registered voters — those U.S. adult citizens who either are registered to vote or who say they plan to register before Election Day

• Only 2% say they “just about always” trust the government in Washington to do what is right. 14% say they trust it most of the time, 62% say only some of the time, and 22% say never

• 45% — including equal shares of Democrats (48%) and Republicans (48%) — think the 2026 midterm elections will be conducted fairly and the votes will be counted accurately; 22% think this will not happen

• 62% believe that mail-in voting should be allowed, while 28% say it shouldn’t be. Nearly all Democrats (91%) support allowing mail-in voting, compared to only 33% of Republicans

• 26% strongly or somewhat support limits on how much money somebody can have, and 58% oppose them. Republicans oppose limits by 78% to 12%. Democrats are divided: 41% support limits and 39% oppose them

Final Chart

This newsletter was written by David Montgomery, Taylor Orth, and Carl Bialik

See a version of this report on the YouGov website, plus toplines and crosstabs for the September 4 - 8, 2026 Economist/YouGov Poll

Methodology: The poll was conducted among 1,616 U.S. adult citizens, including 1,469 who reported that they were currently registered to vote or planned to register before the election in November. Respondents were selected from YouGov's opt-in panel to be representative of U.S. adult citizens. A random sample (stratified by gender, age, race, education, geographic region, and voter registration) was selected from the 2019 American Community Survey. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, U.S. region, 2024 presidential vote, 2020 election turnout and presidential vote, baseline party identification, and current voter registration status. 2024 presidential vote, at time of weighting, was estimated to be 48% Harris and 50% Trump. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification is the respondent's most recent answer given around November 8, 2024, and is weighted to the estimated distribution at that time (31% Democratic, 33% Republican). The margin of error for the overall sample is approximately 3.4%.

Learn more and get in touch

Sign up to participate in our polls and share your opinions on the people, companies, and issues that shape your life and the world

For more polling data and insights, visit our website or follow us on X, Threads, and Bluesky.

To commission or get a quote for running your own survey with YouGov, explore the options here.

Have questions or feedback?

• If you have a press or media inquiry, email uspress@yougov.com

• If you have an idea for a future survey, share it here

• If you are a panelist and have questions, contact support here

• For information on privacy, please read our privacy notice

But there’s a counterintuitive finding about who is using AI to write. It’s not the least confident writers who are most likely to let AI shape their words. Instead, more of the confident, prolific writers are using AI to write. What follows is a deep dive to understand this finding.

The groups who use AI most for their writing

Using AI tools to write is becoming more common. Since last August, the share of U.S. adult citizens who say they never use AI to write has fallen to 51% from 60%, while the share who use AI to write at least weekly has risen to 17% from 12%.

AI writing assistance is most common among younger adults: 36% of 18- to 29-year-olds and 39% of 30- to 44-year-olds use AI to write at least monthly, compared to 19% of 45- to 64-year-olds and 8% of those 65 and older.

AI-assisted writing is less common among poorer Americans. 60% of those with family incomes under $50,000 say they never use AI to write, compared to 43% of those with higher incomes.

College graduates are more likely to use AI to write than non-graduates. 35% of those with four-year degrees use AI to write monthly or more, and 39% never use AI for writing. That compares to 19% of adults without college degrees who use AI to write monthly or more and 57% who never do this.

Americans who are turning to AI to help write are generally not those Americans who see themselves as bad writers.

Overall, 27% of Americans say they are very good at writing, while 47% say they’re somewhat good at writing, and 21% say they’re either not very good (15%) or not at all good (6%). (Because of the relative size of the groups, for much of the analysis that follows we’ll combine the self-described not very good writers and the not at all good writers, often calling them the least confident or worst writers.) Younger adults and higher-earning Americans are slightly more likely than older or poorer Americans to say they’re at least somewhat good at writing. Americans with college degrees are much more likely than those without to rate their writing skills highly.

People who describe their writing less positively are less likely to use AI to write. 64% of those who say they’re not very good at writing or not at all good at writing never use AI to write, compared to 47% of those who say they’re somewhat good at writing and the same share of those who say they’re very good.

A group that’s particularly likely to use AI to help write is people who read books but aren’t the heaviest readers. 38% of those who say they’ve read three or four books in the past 12 months use AI to write at least monthly, as do 36% of those who read five to nine books. Use of AI for writing is less common among those who did less reading in the past year: 23% of those who read one or two books use AI to write monthly, as do 17% of those who read no books. AI-assisted writing also falls off among the heaviest readers, although some of these changes fall within the margins of error: 30% of those who read 10 to 19 books in the past year and 27% of those who read 20 or more use AI to write monthly.

Those who write and those who don’t

Why is using AI for writing more common among Americans who are confident in their writing ability than among worse writers, who might seem to most need assistance writing? The answer is that most Americans don’t write very much. People who think their writing is bad are less likely to write, and people who aren’t writing anything have no writing for AI to help with.

YouGov asked Americans how often they do 10 different types of writing. Most Americans (70%) say they write text messages daily, and 94% ever text. 93% also ever send emails, but other types of writing are far less common. 76% say they ever write letters or notes and 50% write work documents. Less than half of Americans say they ever do each of these other forms of writing: journaling (44%), speeches or presentations (40%), nonfiction (36%), fiction (34%), poetry or songs (33%), or papers for school or training programs (32%).

More confident writers are more likely than the least confident writers to ever do each of these types of writing. For example, 51% of very good writers ever write nonfiction, compared to 19% of the least confident writers. 47% of very good writers write poetry or songs, compared to only 13% of the least confident writers.

And more confident writers are also more likely to do multiple kinds of writing. Because texts and emails are both so common, they aren’t very useful for differentiating between groups of writers. But the other eight forms of writing from the survey do. 60% of those who say they’re very good writers say they ever do at least four of those eight types of writing, including 18% who do all eight. In contrast, among the least confident writers, only 22% do at least four of the eight types of writing, and only 2% do all eight.

The big split here is between those who say they’re at least somewhat good at writing, and those who say they’re not very good or not at all good. For example, 20% of very good writers and 25% of somewhat good writers only do one or fewer of the eight types of writing — but 50% of the not very or not at all good writers do one or none.

Returning to the question of who uses AI to write, frequent AI-assisted writers are also more likely than those who seldom or never use AI to write to say they do many types of writing. 70% of those who use AI to write weekly or more ever do at least four types of writing, compared to 29% of those who never use AI to write. Here again, the big difference is between those who never use AI to write and everyone else who even occasionally writes with AI — 71% of the former group do fewer than four of the types of writing, compared to 38% of everyone else.

The four groups

While self-professed good writers are more likely to use AI to write, it’s not a perfect correlation. In particular, there are differences among more frequent writers based on whether they use AI to write. YouGov analyzed the results and found it useful to classify Americans into four general categories based on how often they write and whether they ever use AI to write:

• 39% of Americans rarely write and never use AI to write

• 17% rarely write but do sometimes use AI to write

• 16% often write and never use AI to write

• 28% often write and do use AI to write

Our methodology: Frequency of writing comes from the eight different types of writing YouGov asked Americans if they do (after excluding the near-universal categories of text messages and emails). Those who ever do at least four of the eight types of writing are classified as writing often, and those who do three or fewer are classified as writing rarely. People who aren’t sure how often they write in a genre are counted as never writing in it. The cutoff at four writing genres was chosen as a compromise because it created four groups of sufficient sample size with distinctive behavior. AI usage is based on how often Americans say they use AI to write, with AI users those who say they use AI to write daily, weekly, monthly, or rarely, and non-users those who say they never use AI to write or aren’t sure how much they use AI to write.

Younger adults are more likely to write often than are older Americans: 57% of adults under 30 ever do at least four of the eight types of writing, compared to 27% of those 65 and older. But both groups are about equally likely to write without using AI. 20% of adults under 30 and 19% of those 65 and older write often and never use AI. Where there’s a big gap between age groups is in AI-assisted writing: 37% of 18- to 29-year-olds write often and use AI, compared to 8% of adults 65 and older.

Among those who say they’re very good writers, 60% write often. More of them say they do use AI (37% of very good writers) than say they don’t (24%).

Among Americans who rarely write, about one-third (30%) say they ever use AI to help them write — compared to two-thirds (64%) of those who write often.

This pattern holds in a range of demographics, including age and educational attainment — with the exception of Americans 65 and older. Among these older Americans, AI usage for writing is similar among both those who rarely write (25%) and those who often write (31%).

Among Americans who do use AI to write, 62% write often, compared to 29% of Americans who never use AI to write.

YouGov asked people who use AI to help write what kind of things they have AI do for them, from conducting research or generating ideas, to having AI write parts of documents or whole documents. There were only minor differences between those who write rarely and often used AI in their writing, and similarly minor differences in AI usage for writing among those who say they’re very good, somewhat good, or not very good writers.

Those who write often without AI really dislike AI

Americans who don’t use AI to write tend to have more negative views about AI than those who do — and this is especially true for those who write often and who don’t use AI. Overall, 68% of Americans say they prefer to read something written by a human, 3% prefer AI writing, and 20% say it doesn’t matter. But 86% of those who often write and don’t use AI to write say they prefer human writing, compared to 72% of those who rarely write and don’t use AI to write, 58% of those who often write and use AI to write, and 57% of those who rarely write and use AI to write.

YouGov asked Americans about whether AI writing was generally better or worse than human writing in 10 different categories. Many say AI is worse than humans at expressing emotion, being original, and being funny, while fewer say AI is worse than humans at clarity or correct grammar and spelling.

But in each of the 10 categories, Americans who write often and don’t use AI to write are the most likely of the four groups to say AI is worse than humans — sometimes by significant margins. For example, 65% of those who write often and don’t use AI say AI is worse than humans at sounding like a real person, compared to 47% of all Americans.

See the full survey

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Carl Bialik contributed to this newsletter.

In this week’s Economist/YouGov poll:

• Few swing voters say a Trump endorsement would make them more likely to vote for a congressional candidate

• A record 38% of Republicans say Canada is unfriendly or an enemy of the U.S.

• Nearly two-thirds of Americans oppose data center construction in their community

Plus polling on AI, the Kennedy Center, inflation, and congressional candidates.

The congressional elections

Democrats continue to have an edge over Republicans in vote intent for the November elections for U.S. Congress, according to the latest Economist / YouGov Poll. 46% of registered voters say they will vote for the Democratic Party candidate in their district, and 40% will vote for the Republican candidate. That 6-point Democratic lead among registered voters is in line with recent weeks, and larger than the Democrats’ low-single-digit lead for much of the summer.

Democrats have an even bigger lead among likely voters. These are U.S. adult citizens who meet two criteria: They either are registered to vote or say they will register before the November election, and they either say they definitely will vote or say they have already voted. Among likely voters, 52% back the Democratic candidate and 40% the Republican, a 12-point Democratic lead.

Among likely voters, almost all Democrats say they will vote for the Democratic candidate (95%, vs. 1% who will vote for a Republican). Republicans are almost as likely to back their own candidates (3% will vote for a Democrat and 93% for a Republican). Independent likely voters’ vote intent largely explains the Democratic lead: They are more than twice as likely to say they’ll vote for Democratic candidates as for Republican candidates (56% vs. 24%).

Likely voters who voted for Kamala Harris in 2024 support Democratic candidates by 95% to 1%, while among 2024 Trump voters 88% back Republican candidates and 5% back Democrats. Likely voters who didn’t vote in 2024 now break for Democrats by 50% to 28%.

Overall, 36% of Americans strongly approve (19%) or somewhat approve (17%) of Trump’s job performance, and 60% strongly disapprove (50%) or somewhat disapprove (11%). Likely voters have similar views about Trump’s job handling, while being slightly more likely to hold strong opinions.

Only 21% of registered voters say a Trump endorsement would make them more likely to vote for a candidate for Congress, while 50% say it would make them less likely to vote for that candidate.

Among registered voters who say they’ll vote for Democrats for Congress and that their mind is made up, almost all (92%) say a Trump endorsement would make them much less likely or somewhat less likely to vote for a candidate. Only 54% of certain Republican voters say a Trump endorsement would make them more likely to vote for a candidate, while 39% of certain Republican voters say Trump’s endorsement would make no difference.

Swing voters — registered voters who are unsure which party’s candidate they’ll vote for, or who say they’ll vote for Democratic or Republican candidates but could change their minds — are much more likely to say a Trump endorsement is a negative factor than to say it’s a positive one (43% vs. 9%).

Only 70% of registered voters who strongly approve of Trump’s job handling say a Trump endorsement would make them more likely to vote for a candidate, while 93% of those who strongly disapprove of Trump say his endorsement would be a negative. The latter group also greatly outnumbers the second group (49% of registered voters vs. 20%).

Canada

President Donald Trump recently imposed a 50% tariff on many Canadian goods, a move most Americans are strongly or somewhat opposed to, the latest Economist/YouGov Poll finds. 58% of Americans are opposed to raising tariffs on goods imported from Canada, while only 26% support doing so.

Majorities of Democrats (87%) and Independents (64%) oppose raising tariffs on Canada, compared to only 25% of Republicans. Republicans who identify as MAGA are far more likely than those who don’t to support increasing Canadian tariffs (74% vs. 27%).

More broadly, 68% of Americans say Trump’s tariffs have hurt average Americans — including 50% who say they have hurt a lot — and only 14% say they have helped.

28% of Americans believe Canada has been treating the U.S. unfairly in trade while 45% say it has not been treating the U.S. unfairly. Republicans are more likely than Democrats or Independents to say Canada has been treating the U.S. unfairly in trade: 49% of Republicans say it has, compared with 11% of Democrats and 23% of Independents.

In recent years, a growing minority of Americans have come to view Canada as unfriendly to the U.S.: 39% of Americans currently describe Canada as an ally and another 25% as friendly, while 19% now call it unfriendly and 3% an enemy. The 22% of Americans who now view Canada as unfriendly or an enemy marks a new high since 2016.

Growing negativity towards Canada has largely been driven by Republicans: 38% now view Canada as unfriendly or an enemy, by far the highest level in the past decade.

Americans are somewhat more likely to say the U.S. would be hurt more by a trade war between the two countries than to say Canada would (41% say the U.S. vs. 33% who say Canada). Far more Democrats say the U.S. would be hurt more than say Canada would (61% vs. 16%). In contrast, only 16% of Republicans think the U.S. would be hurt more compared to 57% who think Canada would.

Few Americans support Trump’s recent proposal to rename Lake Ontario to Lake America: 68% strongly or somewhat disapprove of the idea, while 17% approve. Large majorities of Democrats (85%) and Independents (77%) disapprove. Republicans are slightly more likely to disapprove (41%) than approve (37%). The exception is MAGA Republicans: 47% approve of the renaming and 29% disapprove, while non-MAGA Republicans disapprove by 67% to 22%.

Data centers

As investment in artificial intelligence has led to a boom in new data centers across the country, this week’s Economist / YouGov Poll finds that many Americans oppose data center construction. About half (51%) of Americans say that the construction of new data centers is a bad thing for the country. Only 20% say it is a good thing while 17% say it is neither a good or bad thing.

Democrats are particularly likely to view data center construction negatively: 61% say it is bad for the country vs. 14% who say it is good. Independents are also much more likely to view data center construction as bad than as good (53% vs. 13%). Republicans’ views are closer to evenly split: 39% see new data center construction as bad while 31% see it as good. AI users are much more likely than non-users to say that data center construction is a good thing (26% vs. 9%). Still, AI users (45%) and non-users (61%) are both more likely to say that new construction is a bad thing than to say it is a good thing.

While about half of Americans say that new data center construction is bad for the country, more express negative views about data centers in their local communities. Nearly two-thirds (63%) of Americans would somewhat or strongly oppose a new data center being built in their community, while only 19% would support such a project.

Majorities of Democrats (71%) and Independents (66%) would oppose such construction, as would about half (52%) of Republicans. Only 14% of Democrats and 15% of Independents would support a data center project in their community, compared to 28% of Republicans. AI users are more supportive of local data center projects than are non-users (24% vs. 12%), but majorities of both users (58%) and non-users (70%) would nonetheless oppose such construction.

One issue that may drive opposition to local data centers is concerns about electricity usage. A majority (60%) of Americans think that construction of a new data center in their community would increase their electricity costs. Only 14% think new data centers would have no effect on their costs while 4% think construction would decrease their costs. Majorities of Democrats (70%) and Independents (62%), as well as half (49%) of Republicans, think new data centers would increase their electricity costs, as do majorities of AI users (58%) and non-users (62%).

Another potential concern is the effect of data center construction on home values. Nearly half (46%) of Americans think that new data center construction would decrease the value of homes in their community. Only 10% think it would raise local home values, while 15% think it would have no effect. 49% of homeowners and 41% of renters think it would decrease home values, while only 8% of homeowners and 13% of renters think it would increase house prices.

Republicans are less likely to expect data centers to decrease home values than are Democrats or Independents. While 37% of Republicans think a new data center would lower local home values, 34% think it would either raise them (16%) or have no effect (18%). In contrast, a majority (55%) of Democrats and about half (48%) of Independents think new data centers would lower home values; 18% of Democrats and 23% of Independents think new data centers would either increase home values or have no effect. AI users are less likely than non-users to say data centers would lower home values (43% vs. 51%), while only a small share of each group thinks data centers would raise home values (14% of AI users and 4% of non-users).

Americans have slightly more trust in Democrats than in Republicans about data centers. 37% of Americans say they trust Democrats more to handle data centers, while 30% say they trust Republicans more and 33% say they trust the two parties equally. Americans who identify as Democrats and Republicans overwhelmingly trust their own party more on the issue, but Independents are more likely to trust Democrats than Republicans by about a two-to-one margin (32% vs. 14%; 54% of Independents trust both parties equally).

These results are nearly identical to patterns of trust on artificial intelligence: On that issue, Americans again favor Democrats over Republicans by 37% to 30%, with Independents favoring Democrats over Republicans by 31% to 14%.

Quick Takes

• 36% of Americans think that most jobs done today by humans will be replaced by AI; 38% say they will not

  • Only 20% of American workers feel their job could be at risk because of AI; 63% say their job couldn’t be at risk

• 28% of Americans say that AI will help the American economy; 48% say it will hurt the economy

• 6% of Americans say the Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts in Washington should be torn down if courts do not allow Donald Trump’s name to be inscribed on the front of the building, which Justice Department lawyers said could happen; 79% say it should not

• 43% of Americans say they’re very worried about inflation, while 42% are somewhat worried, 12% not very worried, and 3% not worried at all

• 24% of Americans say the Federal Reserve should raise interest rates to stop inflation, 26% say it shouldn’t, and 51% aren’t sure

• 10% of Americans say they’re completely satisfied with the candidates running for the U.S. House of Representatives where they live, while 31% say they’re somewhat satisfied, 15% are somewhat dissatisfied, and 13% are completely dissatisfied

Final Chart

This newsletter was written by David Montgomery, Taylor Orth, and Carl Bialik

See a version of this report on the YouGov website, plus toplines and crosstabs for the August 28 - 31, 2026 Economist/YouGov Poll

Methodology: The August 28 - 31, 2026 poll was conducted among 1,592 U.S. adult citizens. Respondents were selected from YouGov's opt-in panel to be representative of U.S. adult citizens. A random sample (stratified by gender, age, race, education, geographic region, and voter registration) was selected from the 2019 American Community Survey. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, U.S. region, 2024 presidential vote, 2020 election turnout and presidential vote, baseline party identification, and current voter registration status. 2024 presidential vote, at time of weighting, was estimated to be 48% Harris and 50% Trump. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification is the respondent's most recent answer given around November 8, 2024, and is weighted to the estimated distribution at that time (31% Democratic, 33% Republican). The margin of error for the overall sample is approximately 3.5%.

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Most liberals say boys and girls should be brought up alike (71%, vs. 20% who say they should be raised differently), while a majority of conservatives takes the opposite view (35% vs. 56%). Men (44% vs. 40%) are less likely than women (59% vs. 30%) to say boys and girls should be raised the alike.

Younger and older Americans are similarly likely to say boys and girls should be brought up alike, with around 50% of all four major age brackets saying this. But younger Americans are more likely to be unsure about this question, which means the belief that boys and girls should be raised differently is more common among older Americans (42% of those 65 and older) than among adults under 30 (25%).

But general beliefs about whether boys and girls should play with the same toys don’t hold true for all types of toys. YouGov asked Americans whether each of 14 toys and games are suitable for only boys, only girls, both boys and girls, or neither boys nor girls.

Almost all Americans say building blocks, board games, science kits, toy musical instruments, arts and crafts kits, and stuffed animals are toys suitable for both boys and girls.

For four other toys, 50% or more of Americans say they’re equally suitable for boys and girls, but sizable minorities say they’re only for boys: toy trucks, toy tool sets, action figures, and toy guns. Almost no one says any of those four toys are suitable only for girls.

Toy guns are the only one of the 14 toys where a significant share of Americans say they’re suitable for neither boys nor girls (23%).

Most Americans say play kitchen sets are suitable for both boys and girls (67%), but 28% say they’re suitable only for girls. Tea sets closely divide Americans, with 50% saying they’re for boys and girls, and 42% saying they’re only for girls. The same is true for baby dolls (46% say for boys and girls vs. 49% only for girls). Most Americans say play makeup sets are only suitable for girls (26% say they’re for both boys and girls and 63% for only girls).

Men are more likely than women to say that stereotypically male toys are only suitable for boys, and even more likely to say that stereotypically female toys are only for girls. For example, most men say baby dolls are only for girls (58%), but a majority of women disagree (55% say they’re for both boys and girls).

There are also big differences in how liberals and conservatives view the suitability of toys for boys and girls. For example, 85% of conservatives say play makeup sets are only suitable for girls, compared to 38% of liberals. Conservatives are at least twice as likely as liberals to say each of baby dolls, tea sets, and play kitchen sets are only for girls.

Ideological differences are less stark when it comes to stereotypically boy toys. Conservatives are more likely than liberals to say toy truck, toy guns, toy tool sets, and action figures are suitable only for boys, but both liberals and conservatives are more likely to say each of those toys is suitable for both boys and girls than for only one gender.

See the full survey.

Charting Opinions

How do Americans describe Donald Trump?

YouGov asked Americans how much each of 22 descriptions applies to Donald Trump. Far more Americans apply the negative descriptors to Trump than the positive ones: Arrogant is chosen by more Americans (66%) as applying to Trump a lot than any other 22 descriptions , followed by opportunistic (54%) and reckless (54%). The positive description of Trump chosen by the most Americans is intelligent (37%). (Taylor Orth)

Democrats are twice as likely as Republicans to say a lack of affordable housing is a major cause of homelessness

61% of Americans say homelessness is a very serious problem in the U.S.; 29% say it is somewhat serious. Democrats are more likely than Republicans to say homelessness is a very serious problem in the U.S. (73% vs. 46%). About half as many Americans (30%) think homelessness is a very serious problem in their community. 39% of Democrats and 17% of Republicans say homelessness is a very serious problem in their local community. (Jamie Ballard)

Two-thirds of Democrats say race relations have gotten worse since 2016 but Republicans are split

43% of Americans say racism is a big problem in our society today. 29% say it is somewhat of a problem, 21% say it is a small problem, and 8% say it is not a problem. Democrats are more than three times as likely as Republicans to say racism is a big problem in our society today (67% vs. 19%). Among Republicans, larger shares say racism is somewhat of a problem (35%) or a small problem (35%). (Jamie Ballard)

Quick Takes

• Tariffs: 27% of Americans strongly or somewhat approve of Donald Trump imposing 50% tariffs on many Canadian goods, while 61% disapprove; views are more divided over Canada imposing retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. (43% approve and 40% disapprove)

• Dolly Parton: From a list of five traits, Americans are most likely to say Dolly Parton will be most remembered for her music (39%), followed by those who cite her charitable work (26%), her personality( 20%), her acting (2%), and her business ventures (1%)

• Fantasy football: 10% of Americans, including 15% of men and 5% of women, are participating in or plan to participate in a fantasy football league this year

• Wearing white: 67% of Americans say it’s acceptable to wear white after Labor Day, while only 7% say it’s unacceptable

Elsewhere

Polling media partnerships

• Economist + YouGov on Democrats’ lead in the congressional elections, data centers, and wokeness

Polling abroad

• The YouGov Big Survey on Weddings (YouGov UK)

• What are European attitudes towards air conditioning? (YouGov UK)

Polling in the press

• Americans turn against license-plate readers as privacy concerns grow (Washington Post)

• Is It Really Rude to Decorate Your House Early for Halloween? (Reader’s Digest)

• Real men don’t bike: How cars became the symbol of American manhood (Salon)

• 7 science-backed things to do on your phone that are better than just scrolling (Washington Post)

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Sign up to participate in our polls and share your opinions on the people, companies, and issues that shape your life and the world

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Taylor Orth contributed to this newsletter.

In this week’s Economist/YouGov poll:

• Democrats have a double-digit lead among those who say they’ll definitely vote in November

• Many Americans think data centers are bad for the U.S.; more oppose them locally

• More Americans say they are neither ‘woke’ nor ‘anti-woke’ than say they are either one

Plus polling on North Korea, the Democratic and Republican parties, members of Congress, Kamala Harris, vaccines, and gender identity.

Trump and Congress

Donald Trump’s popularity rebounded slightly in this week’s Economist / YouGov Poll after his recent slump, but he remains deeply unpopular. This week’s poll finds that 36% of Americans strongly or somewhat approve of Trump’s job performance, and 57% disapprove — a net job approval of -21. That’s an improvement for Trump from the week before, when 35% approved and 61% disapproved for a net approval of -26. Two weeks ago, Trump hit the lowest job approval numbers of either of his terms: 33% approval and 62% disapproval, for a net of -29.

It’s too early to say whether Trump is seeing a significant rise in popularity, or if these changes represent the normal week-to-week variation of survey research.

A big component of Trump’s increase in net job approval over the past week is a rise in support from Independents, who rose from a net approval of -53 last week to -38 this week. But polling results for Independents can be particularly volatile, and Independents’ approval of Trump remains in the range of his numbers with the group in recent months.

Democrats continue to lead in the race for Congress. 46% of registered voters say they will vote for the Democratic Party candidate in their district and 40% plan to vote for a Republican Party candidate. That 6-point Democratic lead is in line with Economist / YouGov polls from recent weeks.

But while Democrats have a 6-point lead among all registered voters, Democrats’ lead is 11 points among the 79% of registered voters who say they will definitely vote in November: 52% plan to vote for the Democratic candidate and 40% for the Republican candidate. Republicans have an even bigger 22-point lead among registered voters who say they will probably vote in November, but not only is this group less sure that they’ll vote, they’re also small: only 11% of registered voters.

This analysis focuses only on currently registered voters. 6% of Americans are not registered to vote but say they plan to register before the November election. This group leans Democratic, though this has a high margin of error due to its small sample size.

Almost all Democrats who are registered to vote (91%) say they will definitely vote in November, higher than the 79% of Republican registered voters and 63% of Independent registered voters who say this.

Most registered voters with strongly held views about Trump say they’ll definitely vote: 84% of those who strongly approve of Trump, and 87% of those who strongly disapprove of Trump. But almost half (48%) of registered voters strongly disapprove of Trump, compared to only 20% who strongly approve of him

Among the 19% of registered voters who somewhat approve of Trump, 66% say they’ll definitely vote in November. Among the 9% who somewhat disapprove of Trump, only 59% say they’ll definitely vote.

Data centers

Most Americans oppose building new data centers in their communities, and few agree with Donald Trump that data centers are good for their area because they create jobs and tax revenue, the latest Economist / YouGov Poll finds.

Only 24% of Americans say the construction of new data centers is very or somewhat good for the country, while 47% say it’s bad. Most Democrats say new data centers are bad (13% say they’re good and 60% say they’re bad), as do many Independents (20% vs. 48%). Republicans are more positive about data centers but are still closely divided (38% vs. 33%).

Republicans who identify as MAGA supporters are more likely to say building data centers is good than to say it’s bad (45% vs. 29%). Non-MAGA Republicans are less positive (31% vs. 35%).

Among the majority (57%) of Americans who say the economy is getting worse, most say data centers are bad (14% say they’re good and 59% say they’re bad). Those who say the economy is getting better are much more supportive of data centers (55% vs. 27%), but only 14% of Americans say the economy is improving. Among the 21% who say the economy is about the same rather than getting better or worse, 29% say data centers are good and 39% say they’re bad.

62% of Americans think that building a new data center in their community would increase what they pay for electricity, while 13% think it would have no effect and only 3% think it would decrease electric rates.

Even many Americans who don’t think data centers are bad for the country oppose the idea of building a data center in their community. While 47% of Americans say data centers are very or somewhat bad for the U.S., 61% would strongly or somewhat oppose building a local data center.

Almost all (96%) of those who say data centers are bad for the U.S. also oppose building one locally; only 1% would support a local data center. But those who say data centers are good for the country aren’t so unanimous: 17% of these pro-data center Americans oppose building one in their community, while 73% support one. Among those who say data centers are neither good nor bad, 51% oppose building a data center in their community and 22% support one.

The Economist / YouGov Poll also asked Americans whether they agree or disagree with a recent statement by Donald Trump: “If I were the mayor of a town or the governor of a state, and I had a chance to get a… data center, I would absolutely want it because the jobs are enormous, and the money paid, the taxes paid are just enormous.” Respondents were shown the quote without being told who said it. 21% of Americans completely or somewhat agree and 51% disagree.

Most Democrats disagree with the statement (10% agree and 68% disagree), as do many Independents (17% vs. 50%). Republicans are closely divided (34% vs. 35%). MAGA Republicans are more likely to agree than disagree with the statement (42% vs. 30%), while non-MAGA Republicans are more likely to disagree (24% vs. 43%).

Majorities of Americans who say data centers are good for the U.S. agree with Trump’s statement, while majorities who say data centers are bad disagree. Most Americans who say data centers are neither good nor bad say they neither agree nor disagree with the statement (57%), but more disagree (30%) than agree (12%).

Wokeness

Americans are more likely to say people are too easily offended than to say people are too careless about language that offends others, the latest Economist / YouGov poll finds. But asked whether they are woke or anti-woke, the most common answer is neither.

27% of Americans describe themselves as “woke” and 24% as “anti-woke”; 36% say they are neither and 13% are not sure. Hardly any Republicans (10%) say they are woke and even fewer Democrats (1%) describe themselves as anti-woke. Roughly half (55%) of Republicans say they are anti-woke and roughly half (54%) of Democrats say they are woke.

Anti-woke identification increases with age: 10% of 18- to 29-year-olds, 19% of 30- to 44-year-olds, 29% of 45- to 64-year-olds, and 34% of those 65 and older say they are anti-woke. Nearly half (48%) of Black Americans say they are woke and 5% say they are anti-woke; by comparison, 23% of white Americans say they are woke and 31% say they are anti-woke.

Half (51%) of Americans say people being too easily offended by the language others use is a bigger problem than people not being careful enough about language that offends others; 35% say the reverse and 14% are not sure. Opinions are split by party: 27% of Democrats say people being too easily offended is a bigger problem, compared with 52% of Independents and 72% of Republicans. A majority of Democrats (56%) say people not being careful enough about language that offends others is a bigger problem, compared with 28% of Independents and 23% of Republicans. The 72% of Republicans who say people being too easily offended is the bigger problem is larger than the 56% of Democrats who say the opposite.

Adults under 30 are significantly less likely than other groups to say the bigger problem is people are too easily offended: 35% of them say this compared to 55% of people over 30. 56% of white Americans say it’s a bigger problem that people are too easily offended, compared with 48% of Hispanic Americans and 32% of Black Americans.

60% of Americans say they often (16%) or sometimes (44%) avoid saying what they believe because others might find it offensive; 25% say they rarely do this and 11% say they never do. Rates of self-censorship are similar among Democrats and Republicans: 68% of Democrats and 62% of Republicans say they often or sometimes avoid saying things that could be seen as offensive.

How do Americans think figures from the past should be judged? 56% say people who lived in the past should be judged by the moral standards of their own time, while 21% think they should be judged by the moral standards of today. Republicans are more likely than Democrats to believe past figures should be judged by the standards of their time (69% of Republican and 46% of Democrats say this) and less likely to say they should be judged by today’s standards (15% vs. 31%).

Quick Takes

• 27% of Americans strongly or somewhat approve of the friendly statement Donald Trump posted about North Korea on Truth Social and 55% disapprove; 60% of Republicans approve, compared with 4% of Democrats

• 51% of Americans think the Republican Party is too extreme and 43% think the Democratic Party is. Independents are more likely to say this about the Republican Party (53%) than the Democratic Party (39%)

• 62% of Americans would rather have a member of Congress who compromises to get things done and 38% would rather have one who sticks to their principles no matter what

• 39% of Americans have a very or somewhat favorable opinion of Kamala Harris and 50% have an unfavorable one

• 40% of Americans think vaccines are very safe, 34% somewhat safe, 10% not very safe, and 8% not at all safe. 66% of Democrats say very safe, compared with 18% of Republicans

• 63% of Americans strongly or somewhat oppose allowing transgender student athletes to play on teams matching their gender identity and 20% support it

Final Chart

This newsletter was written by David Montgomery, Taylor Orth, and Carl Bialik

See a version of this report on the YouGov website, plus toplines and crosstabs for the August 21 - 24, 2026 Economist/YouGov Poll

Methodology: The poll was conducted among 1,611 U.S. adult citizens. Respondents were selected from YouGov's opt-in panel to be representative of U.S. adult citizens. A random sample (stratified by gender, age, race, education, geographic region, and voter registration) was selected from the 2019 American Community Survey. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, U.S. region, 2024 presidential vote, 2020 election turnout and presidential vote, baseline party identification, and current voter registration status. 2024 presidential vote, at time of weighting, was estimated to be 48% Harris and 50% Trump. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification is the respondent's most recent answer given around November 8, 2024, and is weighted to the estimated distribution at that time (31% Democratic, 33% Republican). The margin of error for the overall sample is approximately 3.4%.

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Almost all (92%) of Americans say they spend time using social media on a typical day, including 73% who spend more than an hour. And far more of this social-media-obsessed country say they’d prefer social media posts to be arranged chronologically rather than sorted by an algorithm (46% vs. 26%). Another 4% say they would prefer posts to be manually curated, and 23% aren’t sure.

This preference for chronological feeds, where posts are displayed in the order they were published, is strongest among older adults. Those 65 and older prefer chronological order to algorithm-based order by a margin of 60% to 15%, while 45- to 64-year-olds have a softer preference (48% vs. 21%), as do 30- to 44-year-olds (45% vs. 30%). Adults under 30 are more likely to prefer algorithm-based feeds, where posts are displayed based on factors such as the user’s interests and behavior or the popularity of the content. 31% of 18- to 29-year-olds prefer chronological feeds and 43% prefer algorithmic feeds.

Support for chronological feeds is also strongest among those who don’t use social media much, while the heaviest users are more likely to want algorithms. Among people who use social media less than one hour per day, 54% prefer chronological feeds and 18% prefer algorithmic feed. Those who use social media for one to two hours per day have similar preferences (52% vs. 19%). But those who use social media three to four hours per day are more closely divided (45% vs. 32%), and those who use social media at least five hours per day are more likely to prefer algorithmic feeds (38% vs. 44%).

Some social media platforms give users a choice between chronological and algorithmic feeds, while others have only one. Users of the heavily algorithmic TikTok are more likely than those who use other apps to prefer algorithmic feeds (41% prefer chronological and 42% prefer algorithmic). In contrast, Reddit users are more likely to prefer chronological feeds (51% vs. 30%). The comparatively few users of the newer social media app Bluesky are strongly pro-chronological (76% vs. 15%, though this has a higher margin of error than other networks because of the small sample of Bluesky users).

Preference for chronological feeds exceeds that for algorithmic feeds among users of Facebook (49% vs. 26%), YouTube (49% vs. 29%), and Instagram (47% vs. 32%). But these apps are used by large shares of the population: 75% say they have recently used Facebook, 62% have recently used YouTube, and 44% have used Instagram. In other words, the population of people who use these big platforms is less distinct from the population of all Americans than are some of the smaller apps.

Among heavy social media users, who average more than four hours per day of social media use, there’s close division about feed-sorting preference among those who use YouTube (43% chronological and 40% algorithmic) and Facebook (38% vs. 41%), and a preference for algorithmic feeds among users of Instagram (36% vs. 47%), X (38% vs. 47%), and TikTok (35% vs. 52%). Users of each of these platforms who spend a lot of time on social media are more pro-algorithm than lighter social media users on the same platforms.

See the full survey.

Is it wrong to help a relative get a job? Most Americans don’t think so

Many Americans endorse or are at least neutral about the practice of using personal connections to help someone get a job, a new YouGov poll finds. 42% say it is very or somewhat good to use personal contacts to help a family member or close friend get a job — even if that person likely wouldn’t have had the opportunity without the help — while 17% say it is bad and 33% say it is neither good nor bad.

But more Americans emphasize qualifications over relationships when the two are pitted against each other. When considering a hiring manager choosing between a qualified family member or friend and a more-qualified person they do not know, 64% say the manager should choose the more-qualified stranger, while 16% say they should choose the qualified family member or friend.

Most Americans see personal connections as important to professional success: 78% say connections are very or somewhat important to getting ahead professionally in the U.S. today, including 36% who say they are very important; 10% say they are not very or not at all important. Connections are perceived as less important to achieving success and happiness overall: 69% say they are very or somewhat important, and 19% say they’re not very or not at all important.

Experience with the use of these kinds of connections is common. 42% of Americans say they have used their personal contacts to help connect a family member or friend with a job opportunity, and 37% say they have benefited from a family member or friend doing the same for them. 27% have been on both ends, and 39% have done neither.

One-quarter (25%) of Americans say they have missed out on a job opportunity because someone else used personal contacts to secure the position.

Majorities of Americans say nepotism is common in nine of the 10 fields we asked about — but not in equal measure. The question defined nepotism as giving someone an advantage in their career because of their family relationships or connections. 83% say nepotism is very or somewhat common in politics, and a similar share say the same about business (82%) and acting (78%). Majorities say nepotism is common in media (73%), finance (70%), music (67%), law (66%), sports (61%), and academia (59%). Medicine is the only one of the 10 fields that less than half of Americans (46%) think nepotism is common in.

See the full survey

Quick Takes

• Death penalty: 33% of Americans say the death penalty should be used more often than it currently is, 26% say it should be used less often, and 18% say it should be used about as often as it currently is

• Korea: 45% of Americans say the U.S. should defend South Korea if North Korea attacked it, and 21% say the U.S. should not

• Attorney general: 47% of Americans say the U.S. attorney general should always act independently of the president — including 68% of Democrats and 29% of Republicans — while 26% of Americans, 12% of Democrats, and 47% of Republicans say the attorney general should sometimes take orders from the president

• Bike helmets: 44% of Americans would prefer to ride a bike with a helmet, and 43% would prefer to ride without a helmet

• Hooky: 54% of Americans say they have pretended to be sick to get out of work or school, and 36% say they haven’t

• Left and right: 3% of Americans often confuse their left and right, while 13% do this sometimes, 26% rarely, and 51% never

Elsewhere

Polling media partnerships

• CBS News + YouGov on socialism

• Economist + YouGov on Trump and the congressional elections, Cuba and the military, and the Iran war

Polling abroad

• The YouGov Big Survey on Relationships (YouGov UK)

Polling in the press

• Shapiro on placing guardrails on AI data centers in Pennsylvania: “I don’t want developers running roughshod” (CBS News)

• 60 days after signing Iran deal, Trump stuck in quagmire as war drags on (Washington Post)

• Trump’s profits irk Americans as Dems test anti-corruption message (Axios)

• This Is the Right Time to Eat Dinner—And Chances Are, You’re Way Off. Here’s Why That’s a Big Problem (Reader’s Digest)

• What Scrapping the Nickel Could Mean for Future of Cash (Newsweek)

Learn more and get in touch

Sign up to participate in our polls and share your opinions on the people, companies, and issues that shape your life and the world

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• For information on privacy, please read our privacy notice

Carl Bialik and Taylor Orth contributed to this newsletter.

In this week’s Economist/YouGov Poll:

• Republican support for Trump has fallen as Democrats hold a big lead among enthusiastic midterms voters

• Republicans are divided on whether to use the military to take over Cuba and the Panama Canal

• Americans want a fast end to the Iran war but are increasingly likely not to expect one

Plus polling on tariffs, gifts from foreign governments, Trump’s crypto investments, Israel, trust, and voting history.

Trump and Congress

According to this week’s Economist / YouGov Poll, about one-third (35%) of Americans strongly or somewhat approve of Donald Trump’s job performance as president, and 61% disapprove. That’s a net job approval of -26, up slightly from -29 last week.

Trump has maintained strong support from Republicans who are MAGA supporters. Among this group, which now makes up about half of Republicans, 95% approve of Trump and 4% disapprove, a +90 net job approval. The roughly one-third of Republicans who say they’re not MAGA supporters, in contrast, are more closely divided in their views of Trump: 59% approve of Trump and 40% disapprove (+19 net approval). Overall, 80% of Republicans approve of Trump and 18% disapprove. That’s a net job approval of +63 among Republicans, down from +91 at the start of Trump’s second term.

Disapproval of Trump is prevalent among Independents (21% approve and 74% disapprove) and almost unanimous among Democrats (4% vs. 93%).

While most MAGA supporters approve of Trump’s overall job performance, Trump’s support from MAGA supporters varies by issue. 66% of MAGA supporters — a group that includes non-Republicans who say they support MAGA — strongly approve and 21% somewhat approve of how Trump is handling the military. That’s similar to the 64% who strongly approve and 27% who somewhat approve of Trump’s overall job handling.

But the share of MAGA supporters who strongly approve is lower for Trump’s handling of other issues, such as tariffs (50%), Iran (49%), foreign policy (48%), Israel (48%), and Cuba (38%). More specifically, only 27% of MAGA supporters strongly approve of Trump having a personal investment in cryptocurrency while serving as president, and only 24% strongly approve of Trump and his family doing business with foreign countries while president.

Democrats have widened their advantage in the race for Congress. 46% of registered voters say they will vote for the Democratic candidate in the November elections and 39% will vote for the Republican candidate. That 7-point Democratic advantage is tied for the largest in any Economist / YouGov poll this election cycle, equal to the Democrats’ mid-February lead.

Even as Democrats match their recent high for their lead in the race, their lead is even larger among the registered voters who are most enthusiastic about voting in the November congressional elections. 34% of registered voters say they’re extremely enthusiastic about voting, and Democrats have a 23-point lead among this group: 60% of this group say they would vote for Democratic candidates and 37% for Republican candidates.

The 20% of registered voters who are very enthusiastic about voting are closely split: 46% support Democrats and 44% support Republicans. Meanwhile, Republicans lead among the 22% of registered voters who are somewhat enthusiastic (39% backing Democrats and 46% supporting Republicans) and the 16% who are not too enthusiastic (32% vs. 35%). The 8% of registered voters who say they’re not at all enthusiastic about voting lean slightly to Democrats (31% vs. 26%).

War and the military

Only 17% of Americans support the U.S. using military force to take control of Cuba, according to the latest Economist / YouGov Poll, fielded as the U.S. ramps up pressure on the Caribbean nation. 58% of Americans oppose seizing Cuba by force. Opposition to taking control of Cuba by force is widespread among Democrats (6% support and 79% oppose) and Independents (12% vs. 66%), while Republicans are divided (33% vs. 30%).

Majorities of Americans also oppose using military force to take over three other places the poll asked about: Canada (8% support and 78% oppose), Greenland (9% vs. 71%), and the Panama Canal (19% vs. 58%). Few Republicans support seizing Canada (12% vs. 68%) or Greenland (16% vs. 51%), but many support taking control of the Panama Canal by force (38% vs. 29%).

In general, only 26% of Americans say it’s ever justified for one country to invade another, while 54% say it isn’t. Most Democrats say invasions aren’t ever justified (15% say they are and 69% say they aren’t), as do about half of Independents (26% vs. 53%). Republicans are closely divided (38% vs. 40%), but Republicans who are MAGA supporters have very different views than non-MAGA supporters. More MAGA Republicans say invasions can be justified than say they aren’t (44% vs. 33%), but non-MAGA Republicans are far more likely to say they can’t (29% vs. 52%, similar to the views of Independents).

44% of MAGA Republicans support taking control of Cuba by military force and 24% oppose it.

Americans also are twice as likely to say that countries should follow the laws of armed conflict, even if their enemies don’t, than to say countries shouldn’t always do so (51% vs. 23%). Liberals are much more likely than conservatives to say countries should always follow the laws of war: 71% of very liberal Americans say this, compared to 59% of those who are liberal but not very liberal, 58% of moderates, and 36% of both those who are very conservative and those who are conservative but not very conservative.

Among the 59% of Americans who say people are naturally peaceful, 57% say countries should always follow the laws of war and 21% say they shouldn’t. The 18% who say people are naturally violent are closely divided: 39% say countries should always follow the laws of war and 35% say they shouldn’t.

The vast majority (80%) of Americans say they would prefer the U.S. to be respected rather than feared, and most of this group says countries should always follow the laws of war (56% say they always should and 20% say they shouldn’t). Among the 13% who would prefer the U.S. be feared, 37% say countries should always follow the laws of war and 43% say they shouldn’t.

Most Americans say the U.S.’s standing in the world has worsened since the start of Trump’s second term (59%, while 25% say it has improved). Almost all Democrats say the U.S.’s world standing has worsened under Trump (3% vs. 90%), as do most Independents (14% vs. 71%). 57% of Republicans say the country’s standing in the world has improved under Trump, and 17% say it has worsened. Republicans who are MAGA supporters overwhelmingly say it has improved (80% vs. 3%) and non-MAGA Republicans are more closely divided (32% vs. 38%).

Almost all of the 18% of Americans who strongly approve of Trump’s job performance say he has improved the country’s world standing (88% vs. 1% who say he hasn’t), and nearly all of the 50% of Americans who strongly disapprove of Trump say the country’s world standing has worsened during his second term (0% vs. 99%).

Americans whose views of Trump are less strong break down differently. Like those who strongly approve of Trump’s job handling, very few of those who somewhat approve (a group that makes up 17% of Americans) say the country’s world standing has worsened since Trump took office in 2025 (12%). But only 42% of them say the country’s world standing has improved in Trump’s second term, compared to 88% of Trump’s strong approvers, while 37% of those who somewhat approve of Trump say the country’s world standing has stayed about the same.

The 12% of Americans who somewhat disapprove of Trump, like the 50% who strongly disapprove, are most likely to say the country’s world standing has worsened under Trump. But only 64% of the somewhat-disapprovers say this, compared to 99% of the strong disapprovers. 9% of those who somewhat disapprove say the country’s world standing has improved, and 22% say it has stayed about the same.

Iran

The latest Economist / YouGov poll finds that majorities of Americans believe the war with Iran was a mistake and want a quick deal to end it. An increasing share expect the war will last at least another year.

Americans are only slightly more likely to think the U.S. is winning the war than to think Iran is (27% vs. 22%); around one-third (35%) say neither country is currently ahead. Republicans are far more likely than Democrats to think the U.S. is winning (54% vs. 9%) and less likely to say the war is being won by Iran (3% vs. 34%) or neither country (25% vs. 44%).

Half (50%) of Americans think the war with Iran will last another year or more, a new high since we began asking in early March, when only 32% expected the war to last a year or more. Growing shares of Democrats, Independents, and Republicans expect the war to last another year or more. The increase among Independents has been largest and they are now slightly more likely than Democrats to expect the war to last that long (61% vs. 58%).

More than twice as many Americans say that going to war with Iran was the wrong decision as say it was the right decision (57% vs. 25%). Democrats are about four times likelier than Republicans to say going to war with Iran was the wrong decision (85% vs. 22%). The share of Americans saying the war was the wrong decision has risen 6 points since mid-April, from 51%.

65% think we should make a deal to end the war in Iran as quickly as possible; only 15% say we shouldn’t. The vast majority (83%) of Democrats want a deal to end the war quickly, as do about half (48%) of Republicans. Support for a quick deal has changed little over the past four months, falling only 5 points since mid-April, from 70%.

44% of Americans would strongly or somewhat support the U.S. providing military aid to Iranians attempting to overthrow the Iranian government, and only 29% would oppose it. Far more Republicans support than oppose arming Iranian insurgents (65% vs. 18%). Democrats are more likely to oppose than support doing so, by a margin of 39% vs. 29%.

Only about one-quarter (23%) of Americans say that if the U.S. defeats Iran we should take its oil; 53% say we should not. 9% of Democrats, 19% of Independents, and 42% of Republicans want the U.S. to take Iran’s oil if the U.S. wins the war.

Quick Takes

• 49% of Americans say tariffs on foreign goods imported into the U.S. should be decreased, 24% say they should be kept the same, and 14% say they should be increased

• 61% of Americans say it is unacceptable for a U.S. president to accept valuable gifts from foreign governments while in office; 22% say it is acceptable

• Three times as many Americans strongly or somewhat disapprove as approve of Trump and his family doing business with foreign countries while he is president (65% vs. 21%)

• Three times as many Americans disapprove as approve of Trump having a personal investment in the cryptocurrency industry while he is president (64% vs. 20%)

• Only 15% of Americans say the U.S. should take into account what Israel wants “a great deal” when deciding what to do in the Middle East; 24% say it should take it into account some, 20% a little, and 26% not at all

• 34% of Americans have a great deal or quite a lot of trust in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), slightly more than do in the Department of War (32%), the United Nations (UN, 31%), the State Department (26%), and the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA, 24%)

Final Chart

This newsletter was written by David Montgomery, Taylor Orth, and Carl Bialik

See a version of this report on the YouGov website, plus toplines and crosstabs for the August 14 - 17, 2026 Economist/YouGov Poll

Methodology: The poll was conducted among 1,611 U.S. adult citizens. Respondents were selected from YouGov's opt-in panel to be representative of U.S. adult citizens. A random sample (stratified by gender, age, race, education, geographic region, and voter registration) was selected from the 2019 American Community Survey. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, U.S. region, 2024 presidential vote, 2020 election turnout and presidential vote, baseline party identification, and current voter registration status. 2024 presidential vote, at time of weighting, was estimated to be 48% Harris and 50% Trump. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification is the respondent's most recent answer given around November 8, 2024, and is weighted to the estimated distribution at that time (31% Democratic, 33% Republican). The margin of error for the overall sample is approximately 3.4%.

Learn more and get in touch

Sign up to participate in our polls and share your opinions on the people, companies, and issues that shape your life and the world

For more polling data and insights, visit our website or follow us on X, Threads, and Bluesky.

To commission or get a quote for running your own survey with YouGov, explore the options here.

Have questions or feedback?

• If you have a press or media inquiry, email uspress@yougov.com

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