Corpay Currency Research
Corpay Currency Research delivers daily market updates, macroeconomic analysis, and longer-term forecasts to help you make fast, confident, and informed decisions on foreign exchange risk — wherever your organisation is exposed.
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Currency and government bond markets are holding steady after a week in which monetary and fiscal policymakers largely delivered on expectations: the Bank of Canada raised rates; the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan all held; and in Britain, Chancellor Healey delivered a well-telegraphed, fiscally moderate Budget that kept investors...
The Canadian economy slowed in August and appears to have contracted in September, endangering hawkish expectations for the Bank of Canada’s policy trajectory. Numbers released by Statistics Canada this morning showed real gross domestic product flatlining in month-over-month terms in August, undershooting market expectations – and the agency’s own preliminary estimate – for a 0.2% gain. On a year-over-year...
The European Central Bank left rates unchanged as expected this morning, but the accompanying communications helped investors calibrate policy expectations for the year ahead.
The statement itself was fairly anodyne. Officials reiterated that they were not committed to any particular rate path and would continue to take a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach. They acknowledged that a larger...
The world’s biggest economy grew more than expected in the third quarter, lifted by resilient consumer spending and soaring business investment, largely driven by the artificial intelligence buildout. Inflation-adjusted US gross domestic product increased an annualised 3.4% pace in the three months ending in September after rising 2.2% in the prior quarter, according to an initial estimate published...
• Central banks. US equities ticked up. No change by US Fed. USD a bit weaker. Bank of Canada lifts rates. RBNZ surprised by holding steady. NZD tumbled.• CPI & RBA. Australian Q3 inflation firmer than expected. Odds of another RBA hike next week rise. AUD extends its upswing. Will the RBA deliver?
Global Trends
Central bank meetings and shifts in interest rate expectations have been in focus...
As had been widely expected, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged this afternoon, as policymakers await more data on the direction of the economy and inflation before tightening further.
In a brief statement setting out the decision, officials acknowledged persistently-high uncertainty, but pointed to a “strong pace” of economic activity, “resilient” domestic spending, “robust”...