Jump to content

Third wave of autocratization

Add links
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Third wave of autocratization
Part of waves of democracy
c. 1993–2001 – present
Third wave of democratization
V-Dem report on countries autocratizing (red) or democratizing (blue) substantially and significantly (2010–2020). Countries in grey are substantially unchanged.[1]
LocationWorldwide
Key events

The third wave of autocratization is the theory that the ongoing 21st-century phenomenon of countries worldwide drifting away from liberal democracy toward authoritarianism is part of a cycle of such trends over a long period. The war on terror, the Great Recession, and the COVID-19 pandemic were some of the most significant events in exacerbating autocratization. Since the 2010s, more countries have been autocratizing than democratizing.[2]

Unlike previous waves of autocratization, the third wave has resulted in significant autocratization in healthy liberal democracies.[3] Modern autocrats have relied less on military coups to consolidate power and more on being legitimately elected to positions of power and eroding separation of powers from within,[4][5] often weaponizing law to persecute political opponents.[4]

Waves of autocracy contrast with waves of democracy. The third wave of autocratization follows the third wave of democratization, which began in 1974.[6][7] Experts disagree on exactly when the third wave of autocratization began (and when the corresponding third wave of democratization ended), but most, such as political scientists Anna Lührmann and Staffan I. Lindberg of the V-Dem Institute, agree that the transition began in the 1990s or during the war on terror in the 2000s.[3][8]

Autocratization has ignited international pro-democracy movements such as the Arab Spring and the Gen Z protests. It has also led to developments in protest tactics against police riot control methods and popularization of new pro-democracy symbols like the three-finger salute and Straw Hats' Jolly Roger.[citation needed]

Timeline

[edit]

Modern democratic backsliding, rather than occurring through military coups (the norm during the Cold War era), has more frequently occurred through the election of personalist leaders or parties who subsequently dismantle democratic institutions.[9] New democracies that were weakly established during the third wave of democratization have been especially vulnerable to democratic backsliding.[10][11]

1990s

[edit]

Some scholars argue the third wave of autocratization began as early as the 1990s.[3]

War on terror (post-2001)

[edit]
Detainees in orange jumpsuits bound in a holding area at Guantanamo Bay, 2002

Following the September 11 attacks and subsequent war on terror, democratic backsliding ensued.[8] The war on terror is a global military campaign initiated by the United States in response to the September 11 attacks in 2001. It is a global conflict spanning multiple wars that some researchers and political scientists have argued replaced the Cold War.[12][13]

In 2003, political scientists and theorists believed the third wave had crested and would soon ebb, just as the first and second waves did.[14]

While support for the "war on terror" was high among the American public during its initial years, it had become deeply unpopular by the late 2000s.[15][16] Controversy over the war has focused on its morality, casualties, and continuity, with critics questioning government measures that infringed civil liberties and human rights.[17] Critics have notably described the Patriot Act as "Orwellian" due to its substantial expansion of the federal government's surveillance powers.[18][19] Controversial practices of coalition forces have been condemned, including drone warfare, surveillance, torture, extraordinary rendition, and various war crimes.[20][21][22] Participating governments have been criticized for implementing authoritarian measures, repressing minorities,[23][24] fomenting Islamophobia globally,[25] and damaging public health and the environment.[26][27][28] Security analysts say the conflict has no military solution, since terrorism is not an identifiable enemy, and emphasize the importance of negotiations and political solutions to resolve the roots of the crises.[29]

Post-Great Recession (2010s)

[edit]
Number of countries experiencing autocratization and democratization episodes, 1900–2019.[2]

Some scholars argue the third wave of autocratization accelerated in the 2010s (in the aftermath of the Great Recession), particularly at the end of the decade, when the number of liberal democracies was at an all-time high.[30][31] From 2010 to 2020, the V-Dem Institute reported a global decline in liberal democracy.[32]

A 2020 study by V-Dem and University of Gothenburg scholars, State of the world 2019: autocratization surges – resistance grows, argued "the third wave of autocratization, that was already accelerating in 2019, risks gaining unprecedented momentum."[31] Other scholars argued in 2019 that while the third wave is unfolding, "panic is not warranted: the current declines are relatively mild and the global share of democratic countries remains close to its all-time high."[3]

COVID-19 (2019–2022)

[edit]
This section is an excerpt from Political impact of the COVID-19 pandemic § Democracy.[edit]
Police wearing masks in the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport during the initial COVID-19 outbreak, January 2020
U.S. National Guard soldiers assist SWAT team members enforcing a lockdown curfew during the George Floyd protests in Atlanta, June 2020

The COVID-19 pandemic was used as a pretext for autocratization, largely due to the heavy practical and logistical disruption the virus and subsequent lockdown restrictions have caused.[33][34][35][36] Across the world, national governments found themselves with no other choice but to suspend, cancel, or postpone numerous democratic elections at both national and subnational governmental levels.[37]

The 2020 Freedom House report also highlighted a variety of responses relating to government mishandling of the pandemic against the best interests of its citizens, such as denial of the existence of COVID-19 in Turkmenistan and Nicaragua, and the promotion of unsafe or unproven treatments in Brazil and Tanzania.[36] The Freedom in the World score dropped by 45 points in 2020, marking the most significant decline in the prior fifteen years.[34] According to Ingo Keilitz, both authoritarian leaders and surveillance capitalists used the pandemic to "make massive shifts and reprogramming of our sensibilities about privacy and civil liberties that may not be reversible." Keilitz saw this as a threat to judicial independence.[38] The Pandemic Backsliding Index created by V-Dem measured authoritarian and illiberal practices between March and December 2020 for 144 countries, and found 80% of all countries engaged in authoritarian practices such as emergency measures without time limit, disproportionate limitations on the role of legislatures, and government disinformation campaigns.[39] Dr. Abouzzohour at Harvard University said that from 2020 to 2022, COVID-19 "undoubtedly contributed to the deterioration of political freedom" globally. She claimed "heightened repression, militarization, and restrictions" following from the pandemic contributed.[34]

This is due to factors that have been weakened such as "checks against abuses of power, protection of vulnerable groups, transparency and anti-corruption, free media and expression, and credible elections."[36] As governments were entrusted with unprecedented powers to protect public health, even the strongest democracies "failed to guard themselves against abuse of power," said an op-ed on Newsweek.[40] This is because emergency powers grant governments the ability to '"make regulations without an act of parliament"[41] These powers are typically intended to take "rapid action"[41] and combat instability. Emergency powers have been used by some governments to extend state power.[42] This arguably occurred in Moscow, where tens of thousands of cameras with facial-recognition features were supposedly installed to track contagion, however, these systems risk remaining in place after the pandemic.[42] According to a 2020 Brookings Institution report, "the challenges posed by the need for mass surveillance suggest that the resilience of democratic regimes cannot be taken for granted." The same study highlighted foreign disinformation surrounding COVID-19 as a threat to democracy, stating that the pandemic presented an opportunity for malign actors to "multiply the production of fake news, conspiracy theories, and manipulated information", it further stated that "Russia and China exploited the chaos induced by COVID-19 to promote their geopolitical interests and continue to destabilise western democracies."[42]

An article on the journal Democratic Theory comments that a side effect of COVID-19 will be a "long-term effect on established democracies around the world."[43] Part of this long-term effect includes the increasing prevalence of democratic backsliding; while proportional responses to a global pandemic are necessary, excessive measures under abusive enforcement have raised concerns that democracy, in nations where it is already unstable, is declining worldwide.[44]

After the National Assembly of Hungary passed legislation allowing Viktor Orbán to rule by decree, the Washington Post declared the pandemic had "killed its first democracy."[45] During the Hong Kong protests in 2020, police used newly-passed pandemic laws banning groups of more than four to disperse protesters.[46][47]

Post-COVID (2022–present)

[edit]
V-Dem Liberal Democracy Index 2026

In the 2020s, democratic backsliding has increasingly been observed not only in newer or weakly institutionalized democracies, but also in long-established democratic systems.[48]

According to the V-Dem Institute's Democracy Report 2026, nearly a quarter of the world's countries were undergoing autocratization in 2025, including several in Europe and North America. The report also highlights growing concerns about declines in democratic quality and increasing pressures on media and journalists worldwide.[48]

Russia under Vladimir Putin has repeatedly engaged in foreign electoral interference and disinformation campaigns aimed at damaging opponents of far-right populist factions, including in three US elections to support Donald Trump (2016, 2020, 2024)[49][50][51] and in German elections to support the AfD, or Alternative for Germany (2025).[52][53][54][55][56] Scholars have said this contributed to the third wave of autocratization.[31]

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ↑ Nazifa Alizada, Rowan Cole, Lisa Gastaldi, Sandra Grahn, Sebastian Hellmeier, Palina Kolvani, Jean Lachapelle, Anna Lührmann, Seraphine F. Maerz, Shreeya Pillai, and Staffan I. Lindberg. 2021. Autocratization Turns Viral. Democracy Report 2021. University of Gothenburg: V-Dem Institute. https://www.v-dem.net/media/filer_public/74/8c/748c68ad-f224-4cd7-87f9-8794add5c60f/dr_2021_updated.pdf.
  2. 1 2 Boese, Vanessa A.; Lindberg, Staffan I.; Lührmann, Anna (18 August 2021). "Waves of autocratization and democratization: a rejoinder". Democratization. 28 (6): 1202–1210. doi:10.1080/13510347.2021.1923006. ISSN 1351-0347.
  3. 1 2 3 4 Lührmann, Anna; Lindberg, Staffan I. (2019-03-01). "A third wave of autocratization is here: what is new about it?". Democratization. 26 (7): 1095–1113. doi:10.1080/13510347.2019.1582029.
  4. 1 2 Marantz, Andrew (June 12, 2023). "Minority Rules". The New Yorker. 99 (16): 46–55. Retrieved July 21, 2025.
  5. ↑ "Democracy under Lockdown". Freedom House. Retrieved 14 January 2022.
  6. ↑ Huntington, "Democracy's Third Wave" (1991) p. 13
  7. ↑ Schenoni, Luis and Scott Mainwaring (2019). "Hegemonic Effects and Regime Change in Latin America". Democratization. 26 (2): 269–287. doi:10.1080/13510347.2018.1516754. hdl:10366/142388. S2CID 150297685.
  8. 1 2 Little AT, Meng A. Measuring Democratic Backsliding. PS: Political Science & Politics. 2024;57(2):149–161. doi:10.1017/S104909652300063X
  9. ↑ Frantz, Erica; Kendall-Taylor, Andrea; Kendall-Taylor, Senior Fellow and Director of the Transatlantic Security Program Andrea; Wright, Joe (2024). The Origins of Elected Strongmen: How Personalist Parties Destroy Democracy from Within. Oxford University Press. ISBN 978-0-19-888807-9.
  10. ↑ Rocha Menocal, Alina; Fritz, Verena; Rakner, Lise (June 2008). "Hybrid regimes and the challenges of deepening and sustaining democracy in developing countries1". South African Journal of International Affairs. 15 (1): 29–40. doi:10.1080/10220460802217934. ISSN 1022-0461. S2CID 55589140. Archived from the original on 21 January 2020.
  11. ↑ Bermeo, Nancy (January 2016). "On Democratic Backsliding" (PDF). Journal of Democracy. 27 (1): 5–19. doi:10.1353/jod.2016.0012. ISSN 1086-3214. S2CID 155798358. Archived (PDF) from the original on 29 March 2021. Retrieved 26 April 2019.
  12. ↑ Buzan, Barry (November 2006). "Will the 'Global War on Terrorism' Be the New Cold War?". International Affairs. 82 (6): 1101–18. doi:10.1111/j.1468-2346.2006.00590.x. ISSN 0020-5850. JSTOR 4122087. Archived from the original on 9 November 2024. Retrieved 16 June 2024.
  13. ↑ Tunander, Ola (May 2004). "War on Terror and Transformation of World Order". Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO). Archived from the original on 16 June 2024. Retrieved 16 June 2024.
  14. ↑ Zagorski, Paul W. (2003). "Democratic Breakdown in Paraguay and Venezuela: The Shape of Things to Come for Latin America?". Armed Forces & Society. 30 (1): 87–116. doi:10.1177/0095327X0303000104. S2CID 145056898.
  15. ↑ Ackerman, Spencer (27 March 2012). "Afghanistan War Is Now More Unpopular Than Iraq War". Wired. Archived from the original on 19 October 2015.
  16. ↑ Doherty, Carroll; Kiley, Jocelyn (14 March 2023). "A Look Back at How Fear and False Beliefs Bolstered U.S. Public Support for War in Iraq". Pew Research Center. Archived from the original on 31 March 2023.
  17. ↑ "FBI Tried to Cover Patriot Act Abuses With Flawed, Retroactive Subpoenas, Audit Finds". Wired. ISSN 1059-1028. Archived from the original on 30 May 2023. Retrieved 11 September 2021.
  18. ↑ Liptak, Adam (2011-09-07). "Civil Liberties Today". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on 2 August 2024. Retrieved 2024-08-02.
  19. ↑ Eddington, Patrick G. (21 October 2021). "The PATRIOT Act Has Threatened Freedom for 20 Years". Cato Institute. Archived from the original on 2 August 2024. Retrieved 2024-08-02.
  20. ↑ Ball, James (22 May 2013). "US rendition: every suspected flight mapped". The Guardian. Retrieved 11 September 2021.
  21. ↑ "CIA photographed detainees naked before sending them to be tortured". The Guardian. 28 March 2016. Retrieved 11 September 2021.
  22. ↑ "Drone Warfare". The Bureau of Investigative Journalism (en-GB). Archived from the original on 24 November 2021. Retrieved 11 September 2021.
  23. ↑ "9/11 Legacies │Assimilation or Islamophobia?: Uyghurs and China's Counter–Terrorist Discourse after 2001". 911legacies.com. Retrieved 11 September 2021.
  24. ↑ "9/11 Legacies │US Pressure for Democratization and Political Opportunity Structures in Egypt since 9/11". 911legacies.com. Archived from the original on 10 September 2021. Retrieved 11 September 2021.
  25. ↑ Abbas, Tahir (24 September 2021). "Reflection: the "war on terror", Islamophobia and radicalisation twenty years on". Critical Studies on Terrorism. 14 (4): 402–04. doi:10.1080/17539153.2021.1980182. hdl:1887/3618299. S2CID 244221750.
  26. ↑ "Birth Defects and the Toxic Legacy of War in Iraq". MERIP. 22 September 2020. Archived from the original on 11 September 2021. Retrieved 11 September 2021.
  27. ↑ "Airborne Hazards and Burn Pit Exposures". US Department of Veterans Affairs, Veterans Health Administration. Archived from the original on 13 May 2020. Retrieved 11 September 2021.
  28. ↑ Lutfi, Ameem; Schwartz, Kevin L. (8 September 2021). "20 years later, the legacies of 9/11 and the war on terror have just begun". The Hill. Archived from the original on 11 September 2021. Retrieved 11 September 2021.
  29. ↑ Richissin, Todd (2 September 2004). "'War on terror' difficult to define". The Baltimore Sun. Archived from the original on 14 January 2009. Retrieved 28 January 2009.
  30. ↑ Maerz, Seraphine F.; Lührmann, Anna; Hellmeier, Sebastian; Grahn, Sandra; Lindberg, Staffan I. (18 May 2020). "State of the world 2019: autocratization surges – resistance grows". Democratization. 27 (6): 909–927. doi:10.1080/13510347.2020.1758670. ISSN 1351-0347.
  31. 1 2 3 Boese, Vanessa A.; Lundstedt, Martin; Morrison, Kelly; Sato, Yuko; Lindberg, Staffan I. (2022). "State of the world 2021: autocratization changing its nature?". Democratization. 29 (6): 983–1013. doi:10.1080/13510347.2022.2069751. ISSN 1351-0347. S2CID 249031421.
  32. ↑ Dwyer, Brandon (May 1, 2022). "Trends in Autocratization and their Impact on Pandemic Response". Capstone, The UNC Asheville Journal of Undergraduate Scholarship. 35 (1). University of North Carolina Asheville. Retrieved September 11, 2026.
  33. ↑ Puerta Riera, Maria (August 25, 2020). Autocratization and democratic backsliding during the COVID-19 pandemic in Nicaragua and Venezuela. ECPR General Conference. European Consortium for Political Research. Retrieved September 11, 2026.
  34. 1 2 3 Abouzzohour, Yasmina (June 2022). "The Amplification of Authoritarianism in the Age of COVID-19". Project on Middle East Political Science. Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University. Retrieved September 11, 2026.
  35. ↑ Lewkowicz, Jacek; Woźniak, Michał; Wrzesiński, Michał (2022). "COVID-19 and erosion of democracy". Economic Modelling. 106 105682. doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2021.105682. PMC 8571542. PMID 34776576.
  36. 1 2 3 "Democracy under Lockdown". Freedom House. Retrieved 14 January 2022.
  37. ↑ "Global overview of COVID-19: Impact on elections | International IDEA". www.idea.int. Retrieved 27 January 2021.
  38. ↑ Keilitz, Ingo (10 August 2020). "Illiberalism Enabled by the Coronavirus Pandemic: An Existential Threat to Judicial Independence". International Journal for Court Administration. 11 (2) 2. doi:10.36745/ijca.339. S2CID 225514092.
  39. ↑ Kneuer, Marianne; Wurster, Stefan (March 29, 2023). "Democratic health in the corona pandemic. The corona pandemic as a trigger or amplifier of democratic erosion or autocratization?". Zeitschrift für Vergleichende Politikwissenschaft. 16 (4): 615–634. doi:10.1007/s12286-023-00558-8. PMC 10052220. Retrieved September 11, 2026.
  40. ↑ Nguyen, Le Dong Hai (13 May 2022). "Is authoritarianism the new normal for Asia?". Newsweek. Retrieved 31 May 2022.
  41. 1 2 Nice, Alex; Hogarth, Raphael; Marshall, Joe; Haddon, Catherine; Lily, Alice (22 March 2021). "Government emergency powers and coronavirus". Institute for Government. Retrieved 1 January 2023.
  42. 1 2 3 Belin, Célia; De Maio, Giovanna. "DEMOCRACY AFTER CORONAVIRUS: FIVE CHALLENGES FOR THE 2020s" (PDF). Brookings. Brookings Institution. Retrieved 10 January 2023.
  43. ↑ Rapeli, Lauri; Saikkonen, Inga (1 December 2020). "How Will the COVID-19 Pandemic Affect Democracy?". Democratic Theory. 7 (2): 25–32. doi:10.3167/dt.2020.070204. ISSN 2332-8894. S2CID 224918228.
  44. ↑ Edgell, Amanda B.; Lachapelle, Jean; Lührmann, Anna; Maerz, Seraphine F. (1 September 2021). "Pandemic backsliding: Violations of democratic standards during Covid-19". Social Science & Medicine. 285 114244. doi:10.1016/j.socscimed.2021.114244. ISSN 0277-9536. PMC 8417367. PMID 34399291.
  45. ↑ "COVID-19 Brief: Impact on Democracy Around the World". U.S. Global Leadership Coalition. U.S. Global Leadership Coalition. December 2021. Retrieved September 11, 2026.
  46. ↑ Hui, Mary (1 April 2020). "Hong Kong police are using coronavirus restrictions to clamp down on protesters". Quartz. Archived from the original on 2020-04-18. Retrieved 19 April 2020.
  47. ↑ "Hong Kong police break up pro-democracy singing protest at mall". Reuters. 26 April 2020. Archived from the original on 2020-04-26. Retrieved 27 April 2020.
  48. 1 2 V-Dem Institute. Democracy Report 2026 (Report). University of Gothenburg.
  49. ↑ Myers, Steven Lee and Barnes, Julian E. (July 10, 2024). "U.S. and Allies Take Aim at Covert Russian Information Campaign". The New York Times.
  50. ↑ Swenson, Ali (2024-09-17). "Russia goes all-out with covert disinformation aimed at Harris, Microsoft report says". AP News. Retrieved 2026-07-23.
  51. ↑ "Russia's new punching bag: Kamala Harris". POLITICO. 2024-07-23. Retrieved 2026-07-23.
  52. ↑ Sam Schechner; Thomas Grove; Warren P. Strobel; Aruna Viswanatha; Gordon Lubold (25 October 2024). "Exclusive: Elon Musk's Secret Conversations With Vladimir Putin". WSJ. Archived from the original on 20 February 2025. Retrieved 21 February 2025.
  53. ↑ "Verfassungsschutz warnt vor Einflussnahme auf Bundestagswahl" [Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution warns against influencing the Bundestag election]. Tagesschau (in German). Archived from the original on 29 November 2024. Retrieved 20 December 2024.
  54. ↑ "Influence operation exposed: How Russia meddles in Germany's election campaign". EDMO. Archived from the original on 4 February 2025. Retrieved 4 February 2025.
  55. ↑ Thust, Sarah (23 January 2025). "Einflussoperation enttarnt: Russland greift in deutschen Wahlkampf ein" [Influence operation exposed: Russia intervenes in German election campaign]. Correctiv (in German). Archived from the original on 23 January 2025. Retrieved 4 February 2025.
  56. ↑ Evan Williams (November 4, 2025). The Rise of Germany's New Right. YouTube. FRONTLINE PBS. Retrieved September 11, 2026.
Retrieved from "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Third_wave_of_autocratization&oldid=1383160109"