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Let $\Omega=\{a,b,c\}$, $\mathcal{F}=2^{\Omega}$ and $\mathbb{P}(a)=\mathbb{P}(b)=\mathbb{P}(c)=1/3$, so $(\Omega,\mathcal{F},\mathbb{P})$ is a probability space.

Let $X$ be a random variable as follows: $$ X(\omega)= \begin{cases} 1, & \text{ $\omega=a$ } \\ 2, & \text{ $\omega=b$ } \\ 3, & \text{ $\omega=c$ } \end{cases} $$

Let $\mathcal{G}= \sigma(\{a\}) \ \subset \mathcal{F}$ .

Let $Y=\mathbb{E}(X|\mathcal{G})$ be the conditional expectation of $X$ given $\mathcal{G}$, that is:

(i) $Y$ is $\mathcal{G}$-measurable;

(ii) for all $G \in \mathcal{G}$, $\mathbb{E}(X; G)=\mathbb{E}(Y; G)$ .

I saw in some solution that:

$$ Y(\omega)= \begin{cases} 1, & \text{ $\omega=a$ } \\ 2.5, & \text{ $\omega=b$ } \\ 2.5, & \text{ $\omega=c$ } \end{cases} $$

Intuitively, I can understand why this is the result, since $\{a\} \in \mathcal{G}$, so $Y$ should get the same value in $a$ as $X$, and $b$ and $c$ have the same probability so each of them gets half of their original sum, but I wasn't able to prove it formally using the definition above and the properties of conditional expectation dervied from it.

Thanks!


Edit:

The example above was given as a solution to this question: enter image description here

And this is the suggested solution: enter image description here

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  • $\begingroup$ I think you are mixing up two different $\sigma$-algebras. If you want to assign individual probabilities to $a,$ $b$ and $c$ then the probability space should have a finer $\sigma$-algebra than the $\mathcal F$ you are using in the conditional expectation. $\endgroup$ Commented May 17, 2024 at 21:31
  • $\begingroup$ Hi, I edited the post and added the original question and its provided solution, maybe I didn't understand it; I'm new to this topic. Thanks! $\endgroup$ Commented May 17, 2024 at 21:44
  • $\begingroup$ I think you may want to re-visit the initial chapter where a probability space is defined; in particular the role of the $\sigma$-algebra in that definition. $\endgroup$ Commented May 17, 2024 at 21:46
  • $\begingroup$ I think I understand what's wrong with my first definitions. Fixed it now. $\endgroup$ Commented May 17, 2024 at 21:52

2 Answers 2

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The conditional expectation must be measurable with respect to $\mathcal F,$ therefore the inverse image of $Y(b)$ must belong to $\mathcal F = \{\emptyset,\{a\},\{b,c\},\Omega\}.$ Since the inverse image of $Y(b)$ contains $b,$ it can only be $\{b,c\}$ or all of $\Omega.$ This implies that $Y$ must have the same value on $b$ and $c.$ Not because of equal probabilities (this equality condition also holds if you change the distribution of $\mathbb P$ to a non-uniform one) but because the elements $b$ and $c$ cannot be distinguished by any element of the $\sigma$-algebra $\mathcal F.$

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  • $\begingroup$ So, in this case the conditional expectation is computed only by the values of the r.v. $X$ and the given sub $\sigma$-algebra, regardless of $X$'s distribution? $\endgroup$ Commented May 17, 2024 at 22:01
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    $\begingroup$ The probability measure comes into play when computing the actual value of $Y(b)=Y(c)$ but not in concluding the fact that those two values must be equal. If, for example, another probability measure is used that awards $1/2$ to $b$ and the remaining $1/6$ to $c,$ then $Y(b)=Y(c)=2.25$ $\endgroup$ Commented May 17, 2024 at 22:08
  • $\begingroup$ Since for this probability measure $EX=EY=11/6$? $\endgroup$ Commented May 17, 2024 at 22:24
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    $\begingroup$ Since for this probability measure the integral of $X$ over $\{b,c\}$ is $2*1/2+3*1/6=1.5$ and the measure of $\{b,c\}$ (the probability of the event $\{b,c\}$) is $2/3.$ $\endgroup$ Commented May 17, 2024 at 22:31
  • $\begingroup$ Got it, thanks a lot! $\endgroup$ Commented May 17, 2024 at 22:37
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\begin{gather*} P_{X/\mathcal{G}}(A)=\frac{P((X\in A)\cap\{a\})}{P(\{a\})}I_{\{a\}}(X)+\frac{P((X\in A)\cap\{b,c\})}{P(\{b,c\})}I_{\{b,c\}}(X)\\ E[X/\mathcal{G}](\omega)=\sum_{i=1}^3iP_{X/\mathcal{G}}(\omega)(\{i\})= \begin{cases} 1.1+2.0+3.0 & if \quad \text{ $\omega=a$ } \\ 1.0+2.1/2+3.1/2 & if \quad \text{ $\omega=b$ } \\ 1.0+2.1/2+3.1/2 & if \quad \text{ $\omega=c$ } \end{cases} \end{gather*}

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