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On 25 June 2025, following a summit meeting, NATO announced that each member would commit to spending 5% of their GDP annually on their military and other security-related needs, by 2035:

Politico (Jun 2025): NATO allies have reached a deal on setting a new defense spending target of 5 percent of gross domestic product ... During the NATO summit, allies will commit to spending 3.5 percent of GDP on "hard defense" like weapons and troops, and an additional 1.5 percent on defense-related investments like cybersecurity and military mobility.

Background

Twenty-nine countries in Europe are members of a military alliance with the United States, Canada, and Turkey, called the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). A criticism often directed at Canada and some of the European NATO members, by the Americans, is that they are "free riders" who don't contribute much to the alliance, instead relying on the US to bear most of the burden. The United States funds 66% of NATO (an increase from 50% in 1991). Americans across the political spectrum - including Obama and Trump, who have very differing political views - believe this:

The Atlantic (2016): “Free riders aggravate me,” he told me. Recently, Obama warned that Great Britain would no longer be able to claim a “special relationship” with the United States if it did not commit to spending at least 2 percent of its GDP on defense. “You have to pay your fair share,” Obama told David Cameron, who subsequently met the 2 percent threshold.

The Guardian (2018): The White House press secretary, Sarah Sanders, confirmed the 4% figure. "During the president’s remarks today at the Nato summit he suggested that countries not only meet their commitment of 2% of their GDP on defence spending, but that they increase it to 4%," she said. Sanders added: "President Trump wants to see our allies share more of the burden and, at a very minimum, meet their already stated obligations."

While equal contribution to a military alliance may be a fair point to quibble on, it is also a fact that one of the attractions to join a military alliance is that sharing the burden of defence, with other countries, helps save on military expenditure for some countries in the alliance. (In fact, this was one of the justification to creating NATO - after WW2, most European countries were economically and militarily devastated, and diverting their scarce economic resource to rebuilding their military would leave them considerably economically vulnerable. With NATO, the richer superpower members would bear most of the burden of defence, while the others could focus on rebuilding their economies.)

Moreover, often this is even expected by the economically weaker countries as joining a military alliance with a superpower often necessitates sacrificing their independence on foreign policy and making it subservient to that of the superpower(s) in the alliance, thus limiting their soveriegnty.

Now, most NATO members have agreed (at least on paper) to increase their military spending to 5% of their GDP. That seems extremely high, when you consider the military budgets of some countries (in 2024) that have been involved in actual conflicts or have genuine security concerns:

Country GDP % (Defence) - 2024
United States 3.4
United Kingdom 2.3
China 1.7
India 2.3
France 2.1
South Korea 2.6
Poland 4.2
Turkey 1.9
Taiwan 2.1
Philippines 1.3
Iran 2.0
Pakistan 2.7

In fact, in the list of the 40 countries with the highest military expenditure in 2024 (from which the above data is sourced), only 4 countries have allotted more than 5% of their GDP budget to their military (and even here, Israel, Ukraine and Russia are in war and exceptions as during a war military expenditure is naturally higher).

Given such valid concerns and criticisms, how are European politicians (of NATO member countries) actually justifying to their voters, the need to increase their country's military budget to 5% of their GDP?

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    Note that 1.5% of these 5% is only "defense related" which includes infrastructure but also hospitals and anything else that would be useful in a war. These are more palatable spending goals and probably already part of the budget but not currently included in the figures. However, even 3.5% of GDP would need great increases in spending, so this is a comment, not an answer. Commented Jun 25, 2025 at 12:03
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    What kind of answer are you looking for? The answer seems obvious: the population is scared by Russia, so they support increased military spending, and European politicians don't have to justify it since the electorate already supports it. Commented Jun 25, 2025 at 13:27
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    Trump has threatened to withdraw the US from NATO. And even if he doesn't, he's spread some doubt about whether we'd fulfill Article 5 obligations (he said yesterday that it's up to interpretation). So European countries are essentially being told that they're on their own, they can't depend on the US any more. Commented Jun 25, 2025 at 15:37
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    60% of the population supporting something sounds like the idea is supported, and the politicians are justified. You can't expect everyone to agree on something before you do it. Commented Jun 25, 2025 at 16:00
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    @sfxedit unless I'm much mistaken, 60% support in a democracy is actually huge. It's more than a 60-40 majority, since some number of the remaining 40% have no opinion, prefer a third option, do not respond, etc. Commented Jun 26, 2025 at 6:06

3 Answers 3

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Russia

Macron, France,

With the suspension of US aid to Ukraine and the country's disengagement from European defense, Emmanuel Macron finally emphasized the need to invest more in the security of France and Europe. "We remain committed to NATO and our partnership with the United States, but we must do more. The future of Europe should not be decided in Washington or Moscow," he emphasized.

Merz, Germany

“We will decide to invest significantly more in our security,” Merz told the Bundestag ahead of the NATO leaders' summit in The Hague. “Not to do the United States a favor — but because Russia actively threatens the freedom of the entire Euro-Atlantic area.”

If that seems unreasonable, that is for European voters to decide, not wishful appeals as to how "alliances should be structured from rich to poor".

Europe was perfectly willing to get along with Russia in the 90s and cut its spending way down. That was a luxury they could afford as long as they a) did not wish to do much outside of Europe and b) they had no threats near them.

Now, one can certainly argue that

  • The West should have done more to help transition Russia to democracy and prosperity in the 90s. I don't know how much that would have cost, but it would have been a wise investment, if it could have been made to work (which is highly uncertain).

  • The Rumsfeld and Cheney wishes for NATO enlargement to Georgia and Ukraine in 2004 were premature, inflammatory (to Russia), ineffectual and pointless (as they would have been vetoed by other members).

  • US withdrawal in 2002 from the ABM Treaty justifiably caused deep concern in Russia and may have caused just as much damage as the NATO enlargement idea.

But that's all water under the bridge and Europe is faced with the reality of sitting next to a major military power, under a warmongering totalitarian regime, with a chip on its shoulder, historical claims to a number of European/NATO countries and an extensive disregard for human rights and the laws of war: Russia.

And that's before we think about the, fairly remote and much harder to counterbalance, threats of American annexation of Greenland.

Furthermore, despite some claim to the contrary in the question, the US doesn't owe Europe spending on its behalf. It has historically chosen to do so, out of self-interest - to counterbalance its then arch-nemesis, the USSR/Russia - and signs from Trump are that it might very well disengage and is not fully reliable. Republican leaders immediately following Trump are quite likely to come with a Trumpian attitude of isolationism. Hence the need for Europe to shape up, in its own self-interest.

Defense spending is not "burning €, right now".

If it's anything like 2014's 2%, which took 10 years to arrive, a pledge to 5% (1.5% of which is to be defense-adjacent) is not going to happen overnight. A cynical person might even think that asking for 5% is a good way to get to 3-3.5%. Politicians will start to have to justify it to the average voter, once the spending crowds out other services or bumps up taxes. And - perhaps wishful thinking about avoiding pain - there is likely to be an emphasis on debt/bonds, rather than service cuts and tax increases.

Furthermore, polls seem to indicate that European electorates are somewhat supportive of the need for higher spending. This early in the cycle, in many countries, opinions against are more likely to be driven by pacifist ideology or sympathy for Russia, rather than the factors expounded upon in the question.

During the Cold War, the average European spending was 3.8% and the world did not collapse:

“During the Cold War, Europeans spent far more than 3 percent of their GDP on defense,” the former Dutch PM said. In the early 1980s, before the collapse of the Soviet Union, NATO's European members spent an average of about 3.8 percent of GDP on defense.

Defense spending isn't economically efficient, true. But the money doesn't just go into a black hole for disintegration. Salaries get paid, industrial companies get more orders, some level of crossover with/to civilian advances can be expected. Note that Germany's economic sentiment is coming out of its funk once it decided to relax its spending limits for rearmament. The bigger risk is that most European countries are already highly indebted.

As we can see from all the wars going on at the moment, the world is a more dangerous place than it was 10 years ago. Europe would be foolish not to act upon that reality.

p.s. Something to remember, even if it is unlikely to weigh all that much in this instance, is that some countries, France foremost, have long pushed for the idea of more European military autonomy and independence vs the US.

p.p.s. Not entirely convinced that "5% is the answer". Europe can already spend far more than Russia. Sinking more money into fragmented and overlong procurement may be worse than rationalizing said procurement. There is the crucial need for more actual manpower (no, IMHO, traditional conscription wouldn't help much). And, after 3 years of quagmire in Ukraine, the reality is that much of Russia's coercive power is nuclear-sourced, not conventional, so perhaps nukes need more consideration here than what seems currently on offer with these plans. But the whole idea of "don't worry, be happy" still remains daft at this point.

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    @njuffa I don't want to go to far into that rabbit hole, because it is not the main point of this answer. But... I did one year of French draft in the late 90s. This seemed much like a pretend-army: we were under-equipped, under-trained - I shot 18 .223 rounds in one year - and largely everyone in the draft were high-school only (more educated people chose Peace Corps equivalents or found bone spurs to complain about). I don't think this has a future to have a rapidly effective military in case of war. Ukraine is not the same situation. First, they are at war, so have more power ... Commented Jun 26, 2025 at 0:18
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    ... to compel ppl to serve. And, crucially, UA had been at war since 2014 and high % of the 2022 army had military experience from the Donetsk area. They were not a hypothetical 2028 start-from-scratch French/German draftee. Switzerland and Finland have different conscription models which show more promise. Another model might to draft but keep a much smaller number, with handsome payoffs like university support (partially what Sweden does, minus the extra benefits). I am just skeptical of old style, low-training, draftees to operate modern weaponry. And it sucks ppl out of the workforce Commented Jun 26, 2025 at 0:25
  • I'll leave the statement where it is. Blanket increase of budgets may not be sufficient if too few are serving. But if I don't state my skepticism about the draft - which we will agree to disagree on - then people may think "Hey, but let's bring back the draft!" A popular idea with the older folk, who are at no risk of it. Less so with the youngsters. But I've added that ever useful IMHO. Commented Jun 26, 2025 at 0:58
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    The "[US] spending on [Europes] behalf" is a debatable phrasing to begin with, as it's just as easy to argue that the US merely spent a ton on it's interests which happened to also help (Western) Europe. Like me buying a cake isn't spending money on the bakery but on myself with the baker also benefiting. Commented Jun 26, 2025 at 13:30
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    @quarague I was more referring to the wishful thinking that financial wizardry is magically going to avoid any future service cuts or tax hikes to pay for this. I understand the political reasons for this stratagem, but European countries are generally quite heavily indebted already. Commented Jun 26, 2025 at 16:20
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It is 3.5%, not 5%. The other 1.5% are defense-related infrastructure (see the NATO statement).

Back during the Cold War, every West-East railroads was critical, and most of the North-South ones as well. Highways were built with straight parts to serve as emergency airfields. There were strategic stockpiles, civilian underground hospitals, significant numbers of part-time firefighters and paramedics, and so on. This has been underfunded since the end of the Cold War, and countries need to catch up again. Replacing a worn-out bridge now rather than later benefits the general economy as well as the defense contingency plans.

As to why 3.5% on core defense spending are a good idea, Russia has threatened to invade NATO and EU countries and it is already engaging in 'grey zone' attacks -- that is, things which would be acts of war if they could be attributed to government action.

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    Russia has threatened to invade NATO and EU countries They have? Do you have a source? Commented Jun 26, 2025 at 6:06
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    @Allure : here pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/07/13/7465531 or there reuters.com/world/europe/… for instance Commented Jun 26, 2025 at 8:33
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    This doesn't fully answer the Q - how are NATO-EU politicians justifying the increase in military spending to their electorate? How are they countering the opposition criticism? (Note that it isn't just about increasing the defence budget but also about justifying the need for spending 5% of their GDP on it - the "1.5% is for infrastructure" is one clever way of doing that, but can you quote any actual politicians telling that to voters?). Commented Jun 26, 2025 at 15:09
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    @sfxedit, chancellor Merz said so two months ago (DW). Note how he links infrastructure and housing, always a popular theme. Opposition comes from the left and the pro-Russian parties. Commented Jun 26, 2025 at 17:36
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...Most NATO members have agreed (at least on paper) to increase their military spending to 5% of their GDP. That seems extremely high...

Europe has a lot of catching up to do. A lot of traditional equipment is dated and most member countries haven't kept up with the emerging technologies that have changed the battlefield against Europe's main threat, Russia.

Tanks and helicopters are almost not usable. Most of Russian tanks and armor were destroyed since 2022, and all tanks have been rendered 100% vulnerable.

The ability to control the battlefield and mitigate against the persistent border threat of Russia requires member states to effectively have the same capabilities that Ukraine has.

The ability to manage a front line thousands of kilometers in length, 20 km on each side means hundreds of thousands, possibly millions of drones, new military doctrines, and training. Larger investments in medium range missiles and glide bombs for striking behind the front.

Focus on vehicles will be mobility and smaller unmanned vehicles for logistics and evacuation.

There are plans to convert thousands of kilometers of border regions to flooded marshland to function as a deterrent.

All of that will cost a lot of money. This is not required to occur right away, it will occur the same way as the member states increased to 2%, over 10 years by 2035.

For reference, in 2016 NATO Europe was at 1.47% contribution.

Defence expenditures and NATO’s 5% commitment
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_49198.htm

Defence Expenditure of NATO Countries (2009-2016)
https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/pdf_2017_03/20170313_170313-pr2017-045.pdf

Defence Expenditure of NATO Countries (2014-2024) https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2024/6/pdf/240617-def-exp-2024-en.pdf

NATO defense expenditure 2014-2024

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  • If I understand your answer right, the increase to 5% is temporary, to reach parity with Russia, and may be reduced once that is done - can you cite some EU-NATO politician for this claim? Commented Jun 27, 2025 at 11:29
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    This is not temporary, and Russia is not a standard for parity. The armed forces of Ukraine is an example of future state, sans the components that aren't working such as tanks. Most member states are nowhere near able to prosecute a war that is currently being fought in Ukraine. NATO member states are required to develop these capabilities and use the excess for the NATO contribution where it is needed, the border of Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland. Commented Jun 27, 2025 at 11:45
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    That is a more reasonable argument - can you actually cite some EU-NATO politicians saying so publicly? I am not interested in why someone here may believe that 5% is justified. I want to know how EU-NATO politicians are justifying that to the opposition and their voters, because increase in military spending (say vs increase in healthcare) has an undercurrent of opposition in much of Europe. Commented Jun 27, 2025 at 12:22
  • @GregAskew Thank you for a great, well researched and thoughtful answer! Could you please expand on this part of the question: "How are European politicians (of NATO member countries) actually justifying to their voters, the need to increase their country's military budget to 5% of their GDP?" I would greatly appreciate it, and will be happy to award the bounty to your answer! Commented Jan 1 at 13:59
  • @GregAskew Thank you for the answer, again! Happy to award +100 bounty! Commented Jan 1 at 16:10

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