Technology

Human moon landing in 2026?

chance

$1m Vol.

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12

February 28

March 31

55%

February 28

March 31

55%

$765k Vol.

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30?

$918k Vol.

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes February 2 - Feb 8?

47%

34%

47%

34%

NEW

•

$32k Vol.

Weekly

January 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

<1.00ºC

1.00–1.04ºC

<1.00ºC

1.00–1.04ºC

$624k Vol.

Monthly

Precipitation in Seattle in January?

3-4"

100%

4-5"

3-4"

100%

4-5"

$124k Vol.

NASA Artemis II

February 7

<1%

February 28

70%

February 7

<1%

February 28

70%

$148k Vol.

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

5-6

27%

5-6

27%

$108k Vol.

Daily

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

5–7

$434k Vol.

Daily

SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Higher Strikes)

No IPO before 2028

19%

<1.0T

27%

No IPO before 2028

19%

<1.0T

27%

$58k Vol.

SpaceX and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?

65%

chance

$24k Vol.

How many SpaceX launches in February?

NEW

•

$16k Vol.

Monthly

FDA approves Retatrutide this year?

27%

chance

$345k Vol.

Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?

January 31

March 31

88%

January 31

March 31

88%

$221k Vol.

Daily

Named storm forms before hurricane season?

43%

chance

$223k Vol.

Daily

CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?

57%

chance

$16k Vol.

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes Jan 26 - Feb 1?

93%

$148k Vol.

Weekly

Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 4, 2026?

<30

30 - 40

<30

30 - 40

NEW

•

$15k Vol.

Weekly

Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?

23%

chance

$83k Vol.

Daily

How many inches of snow in Washington D.C. in January?

7-9

100%

9-11

7-9

100%

9-11

$87k Vol.

Science Odds & Predictions | Polymarket

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