Derek Camp

We keep treating freight trials like they’re a school assignment. Do it in private. Make it neat. Write it up later. Remove anything that looks like a mistake. Add a few photos where everyone is wearing PPE correctly. Then publish the “learnings” once the project is already over and the people who needed the information have moved on. It is a weird habit for an industry that claims it’s short on time. Most trials I’ve seen fail for reasons that are boring and predictable. Power that isn’t where the drawing said it was. A gate process nobody told you about. A safety interpretation that changes on Tuesday. None of that shows up in the glossy recap. Which is convenient, because that’s the stuff that actually matters. I’m wondering what would happen if more freight trials were shared live. Not polished. Not “we achieved X% improvement”. Just: here’s what we tried this week, here’s what broke, here’s the constraint we didn’t see, here’s what we’re changing tomorrow. Public, while it’s still messy. Yes, it would be uncomfortable. Procurement people would twitch. Comms would have opinions. Someone would worry it “reflects badly”. But it might also stop five other teams from making the same expensive mistake in five different places. Trials don’t need to be perfect. They need to be public.

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If you told me five years ago that a freight brokerage would raise a Series A to build proprietary AI agents, I’d have laughed. Well, the joke’s on me, but 2025 looks a lot different than 2020. I’m usually a fire-hot-take(s)-from-the-hip kind of guy, but took some time to think deeply about the big news last week (link in comments): 1.) 𝐁𝐮𝐢𝐥𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐟𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐲 𝐭𝐞𝐜𝐡 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐞𝐧𝐝 𝐠𝐨𝐚𝐥. It’s to be both best-in-class via any service KPI and overall ease (see what I did there?) of doing business. Our founder built the perfect structure: 100+ flowcharts mapping any and every aspect surrounding our execution model. Now the question is how to both improve and scale that model? Same team. Cleaner data. Smarter quoting. Faster decisions. Tighter feedback loops. Elevated execution. 2.) 𝐅𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐞𝐜𝐭 𝐠𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐭𝐡 𝐩𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐧𝐞𝐫. VC checks have recently chased tech startups, not operators, yet The O.H.I.O. Fund placed a sizable bet after years of seeing our business up close. This isn’t just a capital infusion; it’s creating collaboration with sharp minds bringing out of industry perspectives. 3.) 𝐅𝐫𝐞𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭 𝐟𝐨𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐎𝐡𝐢𝐨 𝐠𝐫𝐢𝐭. This investment is more than a means of growing within our industry. It’s an opportunity to lead and represent the great things happening in Ohio. Lastly - my least favorite business buzzword “orchestration” has been circling for about a year. Transportation is messy, rigid, and constantly evolving. We’re not "orchestrating" a Freightopia where no exceptions need managing… we're simply giving our people better tools to navigate a roller coaster industry. ...and similar Jurgen Klopp I prefer Heavy Metal anyway.

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Some weeks in freight feel a lot like Groundhog Day.   You wake up to headlines about margin pressure, regulatory uncertainty, and another reminder that the system is still operating with very little slack. A carrier halts operations after a capital dispute. Large asset-based fleets report softer quarters. States debate CDL access in ways that could disrupt driver pipelines overnight. Different stories, same underlying tension.   At the same time, demand isn't breaking the cycle. Importers appear to be stuck in a wait-and-see posture after tariff-driven frontloading, which keeps volumes muted and pricing relatively stable. For many shippers, it feels familiar. For many carriers, it feels unsustainable.   But here's where the movie analogy matters. In Groundhog Day, nothing changes until behavior changes.   While the near-term headlines repeat, the long-term investments tell a different story. Automation in the middle mile is moving from pilot to practice. OEMs are committing real capital to autonomous production. Clean fuel programs continue to expand, even as short-term funding pauses create friction.   The next cycle won't be won by pretending this is just another repeat. It will be won by the organizations willing to learn from the pattern and change how they build resilience, capital discipline, and adaptability before the alarm clock goes off again.

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Is another potential hit for Q4 freight demand brewing? A potential victim of the government shutdown is SNAP funding. SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program) is estimated by the USDA to account for 8% of all food purchased for home consumption and, depending on retailer and state, from 10-15% of grocery store sales. Over 80% of SNAP benefits are redeemed at grocery retailers and supermarkets. Federal SNAP spending last year totaled $99.8 billion (USDA). The government shutdown has prevented Congress from approving funding for the program, which means states will not receive federal money beginning November 1. There is a specific bill introduced just for funding SNAP (no decision yet) and not all funding will run out on Nov 1 (varies by state). This is the constant supply & demand dynamic in freight. Are things shaping up on supply side to create some challenges? Yes. Is freight demand constantly finding new ways to counteract the supply side? Also yes. #freight #governmentshutdown #supplychain #food #grocery

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🚨 MAJOR SHAKEUP: USA Truck Executives Just Bought Their Company Back from DSV This isn't your typical acquisition story. A group of current and former USA Truck leaders just executed a management buyout, taking back control of their Arkansas-based truckload carrier from DSV. Why does this matter? ✅ **Leadership knows the business inside-out.** When executives who built the company are willing to put their own money on the line, that's a powerful signal of confidence. ✅ **Return to independent ownership.** After being part of a larger conglomerate, USA Truck is now free to make faster decisions and focus purely on truckload operations. ✅ **Potential for renewed growth.** Management buyouts often lead to increased investment, innovation, and market expansion when leaders have skin in the game. This move reflects a broader trend in trucking: Operators who understand the unique challenges of freight transportation are taking control back from corporate giants who may not fully grasp the nuances of the industry. The trucking sector needs leaders who live and breathe logistics—not just balance sheets. When executives bet their careers and capital on their own company, it usually means they see opportunities others don't. What's your take—do you think management buyouts lead to stronger, more focused trucking operations? #Trucking #Logistics #FreightIndustry #TruckloadCarrier #ManagementBuyout #USATruck #DSV #Transportation #SupplyChain #FreightTransportation #TruckingNews #LogisticsLeadership

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Lately, there’s been a lot happening around retailer-owned 3PLs and large fulfillment arms changing direction. The Quiet Logistics situation is an example. I don’t see that as a failure story. I see it as a signal. There’s an increasing gap between logistics capacity and modern fulfillment. Moving inventory at scale is one problem. Operating fulfillment inside a fast-changing e-commerce environment is another entirely. As e-commerce has evolved, fulfillment has shifted away from square footage and toward systems. How orders move through the stack. How exceptions are handled. How post-purchase issues are owned. How quickly the operation can adapt when brands change channels, velocity, or customer expectations. When fulfillment is built as a side business or an extension of retail infrastructure, it can work for a time. But when priorities shift, those models tend to leave gaps. And brands are often the ones left exposed. This moment reinforces something we’ve learned firsthand: fulfillment holds up best when it’s purpose-built for the current era of commerce, not retrofitted from the last one. The takeaway isn’t about size. It’s about focus. As the ecosystem continues to evolve, the partners that last won’t just be asset-rich. They’ll be the ones built around the reality that fulfillment today is a systems problem first. #fulfillment #logistics #ecommerce #operations #supplychain #scaling #longtermthinking

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Most cost problems don’t start in the P&L. They start on the dock. When inbound is a mess, you feel it everywhere: detention, overtime, rework, missed windows. On a report, it just looks like “higher labor” or “higher cost per case.” On the floor, it’s late starts, bad loads, and no clean handoff to the shift. The closer your visibility gets to the dock, the faster you can protect both performance and margin. That’s the level that really tells you how healthy the operation is. #SupplyChain #OperationalExcellence #WarehouseLeadership #CFOInsights

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I once met someone who said, "I'd never work in logistics. I don't want to spend my career in warehouses." I understood the assumption. But I also knew it was wrong. Logistics careers extend far beyond warehouse floors and freight terminals. Let me show you five paths most people don't know exist: 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗶𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲: Remember when that major retailer got fined millions for incorrect tariff classifications? Compliance specialists prevent those disasters. They navigate the maze of customs regulations, free trade agreements, and documentation requirements. One professional I know saved her company £200,000 annually just by reclassifying products correctly. 𝗧𝗲𝗰𝗵𝗻𝗼𝗹𝗼𝗴𝘆 𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗴𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻: Logistics generates massive amounts of data. Someone needs to implement the systems that track it, analyse it, and turn it into actionable insights. Tech specialists in logistics build the platforms that make real-time visibility possible. 𝗖𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗔𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘆𝘀𝗶𝘀: Every shipping decision is a financial decision. Cost analysts examine freight patterns, identify savings opportunities, and negotiate carrier contracts. Their work directly impacts profit margins. 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗸 𝗠𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗴𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁: What happens when the Suez Canal gets blocked? When tariffs change overnight? When natural disasters disrupt ports? Risk managers build the contingency plans that keep operations running during crisis. 𝗦𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆: Companies face increasing pressure to reduce carbon emissions and meet environmental standards. Sustainability specialists optimise routes, implement green packaging, and measure environmental impact. These roles require logistics knowledge, yes. But they also require analytical thinking, technical skills, strategic planning, and problem-solving abilities that come from diverse backgrounds. Which logistics specialisation would match your current skill set? #LogisticsCareers #CareerPaths #SupplyChain

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With November in the books, I wanted to share an update on where I see the dry van truckload spot market. Two charts using data from DAT Freight & Analytics where I then adjust for changes in fuel using a regression model that links historical DAT fuel surcharge estimates to the EIA’s diesel fuel prices. Thoughts: •The top chart shows implied linehaul spot rates: November was effectively unchanged from October, which was an underperformance relative to November 2023 and November 2024. This chart further shows implied linehaul spot rates are effectively unchanged since late Q1 2023. Year-over-year, November 2025 linehaul spot rates were up just 1%. For perspective, when I made my 2025 forecast last year at this time, I was predicting 15-20% year-over-year increase in linehaul spot rates by this time. I will freely admit I was far too bullish because, frankly, I didn’t think we would see much in the way of tariffs (I thought common sense economic advice would win out…). •The bottom chart shows historical year-over-year change in linehaul dry van TL spot rates for December relative to November. Under normal circumstances, and even with a generally weak freight market, we should see increases of ~$0.08 per mile. As such, don’t get excited if linehaul spot rates trend upwards this month: they almost assuredly will. The question is whether they keep pace with last year’s seasonal gain. Implication: Last year at this time we were starting to see some signs of the dry van TL spot market tightening. Business optimism was the highest it had been since Q1 2022 before the FOMC began their rate hiking cycle. None of the data I’ve seen so far points to a similar degree of optimism heading into 2026. Consequently, I view dry van truckload spot rates as facing stronger headwinds as we head into 2026 than they experienced heading into 2025. I continue to believe supply side capacity restraints through heightened English Language Proficiency enforcement, non-domiciled CDLs, and now immigration crackdowns are being overstated. The demand side takes primacy, and right now the demand side isn’t showing signs of sustained, significant growth heading into 2026. #supplychain #freight #trucking #truckload #logistics #transportation

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