"75% of CPAs are set to retire in the next 10 years." ... This stat is always going around, but after reading this tax forum post, I needed to do the numbers.
"Subject: Expat, Swiss. Couple left the US in 2008 and has not filed returns since then. I'm heading into retirement so I'm not interested. Anyone interested?"
One practitioner, one knotty international case, looking to hand it off on the way out the door. Could this be the voice of a generation? Let's dig in.
> First — where does that "75%" come from?
The best source I could find is an
AICPA /
NASBA exposure draft from 2015: "the AICPA estimates that approximately 75% of its members will be eligible to retire by 2020." (1) So we're talking about AICPA members specifically, who are eligible to retire, by 2020.
Hold onto that as we look at where things actually stand today:
• The
Bureau of Labor Statistics projects about 124,200 openings a year for accountants and auditors over the next decade. (2)
• JoA finds that schools awarded 55,152 accounting bachelor's and master's degrees in 2023–2024. (3)
• 28,082 new candidates entered the CPA Exam pipeline in 2024. (4)
• 13,070 of them passed their fourth and final exam section that year. (4)
• NASBA counts 653,408 actively licensed CPAs as of August 2025 (excluding Hawaii and New Mexico). (5)
To me that doesn't look like quite the cliff the headline suggests — but it isn't a rosy picture either. It reads more like a pipeline that leaks at every junction:
- students into accounting programs,
- those students through to a degree,
- graduates into CPA-track roles,
- candidates through all four exam sections,
- the newly licensed landing in firms that still want and reward the credential,
- and finally, experienced practitioners into ownership, succession, teaching, mentoring.
And when you line the numbers up, the leak is hard to miss:
124,200 annual openings
→ 55,152 accounting degrees
→ 28,082 new CPA Exam candidates
→ 13,070 fourth-section passers
Now, that top BLS number is every accountant-and-auditor opening, so not strictly CPA seats. But even reading it generously, the pipeline is minting a small fraction of what the field seems to be asking for.
If I had to rewrite the headline based on what I've read (sure, we've got this 75% retirement cliff) but:
>> We're graduating new CPAs at maybe a tenth of the demand for new hires.
Is that actually what the market feels like from the inside? For new & retiring CPAs, and for the firms trying to hire them?