Padden Guy Murphy

The Africa Growth Initiative at Brookings has been researching the opportunities Africa can offer the U.S. in the critical minerals sector. We have benefited from input received in two roundtables with African and U.S. representatives from government, industry, academia, the African Development Bank (AfDB), and the World Bank. In this three-blog series, we summarize our findings and recommendations. Africa is estimated to hold about 30% of the world’s proven critical minerals reserves. This number is likely an underestimate of the regional potential due to insufficient geological exploration. Several African countries are global leaders in reserves, from cobalt in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) to platinum group metals in South Africa and graphite in Mozambique. African leaders realize the enormous opportunity that critical minerals can provide to their countries. The December 2024 African Union Green Minerals Strategy is a milestone document in the sector. The level of political attention could not be higher. Competition for critical minerals in Africa is growing. While China’s presence is better known, other actors like India, Saudi Arabia, and the European Union are entering the continent’s mining sector. The April 2025 visit to the DRC by the U.S. senior adviser for Africa is an example of the initial efforts of mineral diplomacy. https://lnkd.in/e7ABxUXd #criticalminerals #africa #cobalt #greenmineralsstrategy #drc #southafrica #mozambique #eu #us

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Excited to have my first article published in Sustainable Messaging about battery energy storage and feasability in Austria and beyond. Battery energy storage is important for energy security and the green transition, and a special thank you to Megan Crain for recognizing the important of this topic and the need to not only implement but also inform public opinion on this topic. I look forward to publishing more about sustainability and the potential challenges and solutions that face the energy transtion in Austria, the U.S., and around the world. Until then, please check out my article along with all of Sustainable Messaging's services. Thank you again to Sustainable Messaging and Megan Crain for including me in this discussion, and I am eager to see what the future holds!

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𝐒𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐭 𝐌𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐬, 𝐃𝐮𝐦𝐛 𝐑𝐮𝐥𝐞𝐬, 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐖𝐡𝐲 𝐀𝐈 𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐍𝐞𝐰 𝐄𝐥𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 I recently sat down with Ryan Grant Little, the host of Another Climatetech podcast (but also a climatetech founder, advisor, and investor) to talk about why AI is the new electrification, and how it makes an increasingly complex energy system legible. Some other topics we covered: 🔋 Why electrification isn’t just inevitable - it’s the most capital-efficient climate solution on offer 🔄 What "sector coupling" means, and how heat pumps, EVs, and industry can all talk to each other ⚡ The distributed grid, smart meters, and how regulation is slowing everything down 🔐 Why cybersecurity for backyard solar systems might be our next national security crisis 🔌 The dark horses of climatetech: agrivoltaics and bi-directional EV charging At Vireo Ventures, we believe decarbonization is the greatest challenge and the greatest investment opportunity of our lifetime. Our investments, including - FLEXECHARGE, Atmen, nuuEnergy, dsb - are driving exactly that: the digital and electrified infrastructure needed to achieve net-zero and make our energy system work. Listen on Spotify 🎧 https://lnkd.in/dTUVs7id or Apple 🍏 https://lnkd.in/ddDHT_bS

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Did Tax Reform Just Make Rewiring America's Vision Possible? Rewiring America’s September 2025 "Homegrown Energy" report suggests hyperscale data centers fund residential heat pumps, solar, and batteries to offset grid impact. While ambitious, traditional financing (debt/equity), even those with credit enhancements, fail due to modest revenue and long payback periods. Enter Section 168(k): The Financial Bridge The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) restored 100% bonus depreciation. This allows hyperscalers to treat residential Distributed Energy Resources (DER) as "interconnection infrastructure" rather than a charity program, potentially qualifying for an immediate Year 1 tax deduction. The Math: A data center facing $100M in slow transmission upgrades could instead deploy $100M in residential assets. With a 21% corporate tax rate, the Year 1 tax savings provide a $21M immediate cash-back—liquidity traditional upgrades can’t match. The Missing Piece: TPOs as Fleet Managers Hyperscalers (Google, Meta, Amazon) don't want to fix leaky heat pumps. The Third-Party Ownership (TPO) model (e.g., Sunrun, Lunar Energy) completes the puzzle: * Hyperscaler: Owns equipment, captures 100% bonus depreciation, and retains dispatch rights for grid curtailment. * TPO Operator: Acts as asset manager. Handles customer acquisition, installation, and maintenance for a management fee. * Homeowner: Receives premium equipment and lower bills in exchange for an easement and dispatch priority. Why This Could Work * For Hyperscalers: Focuses on compute; outsources complexity; accelerates interconnection timelines. * For TPOs: Creates a low-capex, high-margin management revenue stream. * For Utilities: Defers expensive transmission investments using proven VPP operators. The Reality Check: Required Rigor This remains a hypothesis. Success depends on surviving three critical "contact points": * Tax Scrutiny: Does residential placement qualify as a "business purpose" under 168(k)? Does the "used for lodging" trap (Sec. 50(b)(2)) apply? * Operational Firmness: Can TPOs guarantee the "dispatchable capacity" required to legally replace a substation? * Regulatory Approval: How do utilities and their regulators view "utility-grade" assets sitting behind residential meters? will they credit them at all? The Big Question The Rewiring America's vision finally has a feasible but untested financial engine (OBBBA) and an operational layer (TPOs). The pieces exist—is anyone assembling them? The gap between vision and viability is closing, but only if the structure is rigorous enough to withstand IRS audit and utility reliability standards. #EnergyFinance #DataCenters #GridModernization #TaxPolicy #CleanEnergy #RewiringAmerica

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Offering a practical, solutions-focused perspective, "I" outlined deployable energy systems capable of stabilizing communities in the near term. He discussed rapidly deployable renewable options such as solar porch panels, portable batteries, generators, and portable power stations, emphasizing the critical role of decentralized energy systems and energy storage—particularly lithium battery solutions. While these measures will not repair Ukraine’s centralized grid, Shmotolokha noted, they are essential to helping people survive. He stressed the urgency of planning now for next winter and strongly advocated for high-quality equipment capable of functioning reliably for at least a decade.

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The single biggest problem with adaptation finance isn't that projects are unbankable. The problem is that the value proposition isn't good enough. A recent Milken Institute report, "Strategic Recalibration of Climate Finance," landed a few weeks ago. We covered it in our news roundup, but thought it deserved a closer look because it gets some things right... and one thing fundamentally wrong. The report proposes reallocating the $300 billion Baku Finance Goal from 60/28/12 (mitigation/adaptation/resilience) to 40/30/30. It estimates private adaptation finance at roughly $5 billion per year today (less than 10% of total flows) and argues it needs to reach $18 billion by 2035. The authors distinguish between "unbankable" adaptation (sea walls, flood defenses requiring 100% public grants) and a commercially viable tier where businesses pay for services that increase productivity. We agree with this part. Private adaptation finance needs to grow. There is a bankable tier. The gap between $5B today and $18B by 2035 represents real market opportunity. But here's where we disagree: When you start from "I need to provide resilience toward flooding" and work backward to "how do I make that bankable," you're approaching it wrong. That assumes adaptation is inherently a public good requiring subsidy. We start from the opposite direction: where are the markets, where is demand growing predictably, what are the best value propositions? Then we back companies that accelerate those solutions. Flood barriers that require 100% grants aren't unbankable because adaptation is hard to finance. They're unbankable because the technology isn't disruptive enough, the value proposition isn't strong enough, or it hasn't been adequately de-risked. Companies selling solutions that businesses pay for out of self-interest (cooling systems that prevent productivity loss, water management that reduces operating costs, materials that restore insurability) don't have a bankability problem. They have customers. Instead of fighting to generate customer demand, let's accelerate solutions where demand exists already. By doing this we will get more progress. Which, in turn, will create a fly wheel effect and get more people adopting adaptation solutions. The path from $5B to $18B isn't building better subsidy structures for marginal projects. It's isolating the companies where demand is structurally rising and returns follow.

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This is WILD. Starpath (an Indicator Ventures portfolio company) needs a massive amount of solar power to build gas stations on the Moon and Mars. Suppliers quoted $100/W with 14-month lead times, so Saurav Shroff and team built their own space-rated panels, 90% cheaper, and automated the production line. By next year, they can outproduce the rest of the world’s supply of space solar combined, enough to power every satellite made on Earth. https://lnkd.in/eDXuvS-h

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I'm somewhat baffled how little discussion I see in the climate tech bubble about this. I mean, not this specific project. More the fact that I'm seeing announcements of the form "another large-scale bio-e-methanol project in China is moving ahead" on an almost weekly basis. (note that the claim in this press release that this is "China’s first combined bio- and e-methanol production" is incorrect. Shanghai Electric announced inauguration of their 50kt/a bio-e-methanol plant just a couple of weeks ago.) https://lnkd.in/dRTYjTEE

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One of my biggest learnings in VC? Investment strategy is like brand positioning in marketing - if you're not crystal clear on what you stand for, you're dead in the water. We don't try to be everything to everyone. We're laser-focused: global deep tech scaling into Asia's climate mess. That's it. That's our lane. Because here's the thing: if you don't have conviction about your approach, founders smell it from miles away. So when Carlinda Rextiza asked us to spill our actual investment thesis, we said no fluff. Just the real framework we use to spot climate companies that actually scale. Worth the read if you're curious how we really think about climate investing. That clarity has led us to some incredible companies... And one EXTREMELY BIG NEWS IS COMING 👀

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The future of climate isn’t regulation. It’s builders. Proud to join the 2026 Enviropreneur Fellowship at Hoover Institution, Stanford University Institution with an exceptional group of founders tackling energy, infrastructure, and sustainability at scale. At SALUBATA, we’re rethinking footwear from first principles: • Ocean plastic becomes raw material • Walking becomes energy • Shoes become carbon capture & decomposition systems Appreciate the recognition from Stanford Precourt Institute for Energy. We’re just getting started. #Climate #CleanTech #Startups #Innovation

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COLUMN: The European Union's lavish pledge to buy $750 billion of U.S. energy by 2028 risks exacerbating the bloc's already outsized dependence on American gas, just as it finds itself increasingly reliant on Chinese technology to power its energy transition. Brussels plans to completely phase out Russian energy imports by 2027, a complex but feasible ambition that will further increase its need for LNG, which will come in large part from the U.S. Relying on a democratic Western ally should create less political danger than tying oneself to an authoritarian power, but it is not risk-free. The energy crisis that followed Moscow's invasion of Ukraine taught Europe two painful lessons: don’t be heavily reliant on any single energy supplier, and true energy security means reducing reliance on fossil fuels, especially given the EU’s insufficient and dwindling domestic production. The rapid growth in renewables comes with its own dependency risks, however, as the green energy supply chain is dominated by Chinese technology. Diversifying the EU’s sources of renewables technologies and critical minerals is therefore crucial for the bloc’s energy security, though this will take years to achieve. #EU #Russia #LNG #renewables Read my Reuters Open Interest column: https://lnkd.in/dzTi7m4n

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𝐄𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐠𝐲, 𝐂𝐥𝐢𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐞 & 𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐫𝐚𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐌𝐢𝐜𝐫𝐨𝐠𝐫𝐢𝐝𝐬 𝐄𝐱𝐩𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐎𝐛𝐬𝐞𝐫𝐯𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧: An accelerating push toward community and distributed microgrids shows that regions are betting on energy independence and resilience. Localities increasingly see microgrids not just as backup, but as integral parts of their energy planning. 𝐈𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧:  Leaders at city, utility, and national levels should assess microgrid strategy on a zone-by-zone basis—evaluating which neighborhoods, campuses, or critical facilities are prime for modular deployment. #Microgrids #EnergyTransition #ResilientInfrastructure #EnergyIndependence #SustainableDevelopment #DistributedEnergy #RenewableEnergy #KSAVision2030 #Vision2030

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It's been amazing to watch Aalo Atomics execute since their Series A last September. Blown away by the Executive Order momentum and the speed of innovation across the sector. At Crosscut Ventures, we believe that a mass manufacturing approach for modular reactors will bring scale and cost efficiency to clean base load energy production - both for Data Center/AI efforts as well as energy for the grid. Reach out if you'd like to see more on our research and the portfolio we are developing for this Energy SuperCycle.

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A new book on priority technologies argues the U.S. is dismantling the government R&D investment and scientific talent pipeline that built our innovation edge. https://lnkd.in/g-Df-6dE

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I’ll be in Denver next week for Colorado Climate Week and the Industry Growth Forum. A big focus for me right now is how we better align entrepreneurship, capital, and ecosystem support to actually accelerate climate solutions. At SecondMuse, that shows up through supporting founders, designing and managing capital, and partnering with institutions to build more effective innovation ecosystems. If you’ll be around and want to compare notes (or grab a coffee), let me know. Also very open to recommendations for the most worthwhile events and side gatherings.

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Hank Paulson is currently the Chairman of the Paulson Institute, a think-and-do tank focused on US-China relations, sustainable growth, and cleaner environments, and also serves as the Executive Chairman of TPG Rise Climate, a climate-focused investment fund. He remains active in conservation, co-chairs the Aspen Institute's Economic Strategy Group, and is a prominent voice on economic and environmental issues. Key Activities: Paulson Institute: Leads his own institute, which promotes US-China cooperation and sustainable development through research and action.  Climate Finance: Works with TPG Rise Climate to invest in climate solutions, seeking high-quality, scalable opportunities in areas like energy and agriculture.  Economic Strategy: Co-chairs the Aspen Economic Strategy Group, addressing U.S. economic challenges.  Conservation: Continues his lifelong commitment to conservation, previously chairing The Nature Conservancy and founding its Latin American Council.  Background:  Former U.S. Treasury Secretary (2006-2009) during the financial crisis. Former Chairman and CEO of Goldman Sachs. Author of On the Brink.

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AI-Only Geothermal Development The Waid Family Foundation (WFF) has formally established AI-Only Geothermal Development as a foundational pillar of our zero-emissions critical-infrastructure strategy. We view the convergence of artificial intelligence + geothermal baseload energy not as a trend, but as a permanent infrastructure class—capable of sustaining next-generation computing, water systems, manufacturing, and community resilience. Under this undertaking, all WFF geothermal development will be AI-first, AI-governed, and AI-optimized across the full lifecycle—from subsurface modeling to long-term reservoir stewardship. This posture reflects WFF’s commitment to tribal and indigenous sovereignty, intergenerational land stewardship, and zero-emissions tolerance as civilization-scale infrastructure evolves. Hashtags: #Geothermal #ArtificialIntelligence #ZeroEmissions #CriticalInfrastructure #TribalInfrastructure

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Tomorrow kicks off this year's SBIR Ignite program with a series of AMAs where tech companies of all stripes can learn more about this source of nondilutive funding and resources from NASA for those that have never worked with NASA before. And it's not just for "space" or "aerospace" companies - it's for any company with tech that could be relevant to space. Please share!

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Tiwahe by True is a Native American member-owned power generation partner focused on helping Tribes and Hyperscalers unlock Speed to Power. We are focused on siting power generation and adjacent data centers on Tribal land through a framework built around sovereignty, speed, and aligned economics. What makes us different is simple: • We are a tribal member-owned company with years of tribal business experience • We have extensive trusted tribal relationships with the most Senior Tribal leaders across the US. • We understand how to align land, regulation, infrastructure, and capital • We create structures where Tribes participate in the value, not just the land lease Tribal nations are one of the most overlooked strategic opportunities in American energy and infrastructure today. They have the authority to cut through regulations and approve projects in a fraction of the normal time. Our mission is to deliver speed, certainty, partnership, and scale. Reach out if you have a project that needs power generation, and speed to power is a main concern; that's what we solve. #PowerGeneration #EnergyInfrastructure #TribalEconomicDevelopment #IndianCountry #DataCenters #AIInfrastructure #Sovereignty Alan True alan@truefamilyenterprises.com

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