Patrick Kimble

Build, Not Block: Why New Construction and Affordable Housing Are a Global Opportunity for Florida Investors The core problem isn’t who owns homes today—it’s that we don’t build enough tomorrow. Harvard projects the U.S. needs 11.3 million new homes in the next 10 years to meet growth and replacements, about 1.13 million per year, before the current shortage. Without supply, affordability fights a losing battle. Key numbers you can act on:  - 11.3 million new homes needed over 10 years (≈1.13 million/year).  - Today’s headline debate on ownership misses the lever: increasing supply. Policy can’t fix affordability by restricting demand alone.  - Ownership mix in single-family housing (typical market snapshot): about 84% owner-occupied, ~15% individual investors, ~1% large institutions. The path to affordability lies in scaling new stock, not curbing demand.  - Florida advantage: no state income tax, business-friendly climate, and incentives that accelerate development and reduce carrying costs for qualified affordable projects. Why new construction is the fastest path to affordability:  - Modern, energy-efficient builds cut operating costs and improve long-term affordability for renters and buyers.  - Scaled development lets you design for workforce and first-time-homebuyers, not just luxury segments.  - Public-private models (LIHTC, state subsidies, tax-exempt bonds, accelerated permitting) dramatically improve project economics. How international investors win in Florida:  - Tax incentives: LIHTC credits (9% and 4% programs) can uplift returns, plus state/local subsidies for qualified affordable units.  - Financing mix: blend of low-cost debt, state tax incentives, and equity from global partners reduces risk and increases long-term cash flow.  - Portability and diversification: Florida’s growth, migration patterns, and climate resilience provide multiple submarkets (urban cores, growth corridors, sunbelt exurbs) for risk-balanced portfolios.  - Return profile (illustrative): stabilized single-site affordable projects can target after-tax yields in the mid-to-high single digits with long-term hold, assuming federal tax credits and local subsidies are maximized; cap rates for solid affordable deals typically in the 4–6% range pre-incentives, improving with tax credits and subsidies. The big takeaway... the opportunity isn’t just social good—it’s scalable, capital-efficient and strategically aligned with Florida’s growth engine. If you’re an investor seeking both impact and predictable, durable returns, affordable housing via new construction in the U.S. and especially Florida should be at the top of your pipeline.   #LuxuryRealEstate #SouthFloridaInvestments #privateequity #businessstrategy  #businessadvisory  #businessdevelopment  #wealthcreation  #wealthmanagement #Newconstruction #WEALTHMIGRATION https://lnkd.in/eauPeAxx

7

1 Comment

Most real estate posts still frame cost segregation as a one-time write-off. That’s rarely how it creates lasting value. For Florida investors, it’s a timing decision with long-term consequences. What matters in practice 👇 • Align acceleration with peak earning years, not just acquisition timing • Model recapture exposure and exit scenarios before pulling deductions forward • Confirm whether losses will be usable or suspended under passive activity rules • Coordinate cost segregation with entity structure and ownership strategy • Be intentional with bonus depreciation, especially now that 100% bonus is available again for certain 2025 property Few discussions address rate risk. Accelerating depreciation only works if today’s marginal rates are meaningfully higher than tomorrow’s. Otherwise, you may be trading flexibility for short-term relief. In Florida, with no state income tax, that federal timing decision matters even more. Read the full analysis: 🔗 https://lnkd.in/gwYERjV5 How are you modeling timing and exit risk in your real estate tax planning? #CostSegregation #FloridaRealEstate #RealEstateInvestors #TaxPlanning #RealEstateTax #BonusDepreciation

7

I’m pleased to share our 2026 East Boston Apartment Rental Market Report, providing a detailed analysis of one of Boston’s fastest-evolving rental submarkets. East Boston continues to attract strong interest due to its waterfront redevelopment, transit accessibility, and growing residential pipeline. This year’s data highlights steady demand, shifting pricing dynamics across unit types, and a neighborhood that remains highly responsive to broader economic and policy conditions. What makes East Boston particularly important to watch is its role in Boston’s overall housing supply strategy. As one of the few neighborhoods with meaningful development capacity, its trajectory will be closely tied to regulatory certainty and the investment climate. Policy decisions made today could significantly influence how much new housing ultimately comes online in the coming years. At Boston Pads, we remain committed to grounding housing conversations in real-time market data. Understanding neighborhood-level trends is critical for landlords, investors, and policymakers seeking sustainable solutions to Boston’s housing challenges. I encourage industry professionals and stakeholders to review the findings and consider what they signal for the broader rental market ahead. #EastBostonApartments #EastBostonRentalMarket #EastBostonRentPrices #EastBostonApartmentSupply #BostonRealEstate #PropertyManagement #BostonLandlords #WinterPreparedness #BostonSnowRemoval #BostonPads #BostonRealEstate #PropTech #RealEstateTechnology #Partnership #BostonPads #IndustryLeadership #BostonApartments #BrokerFeeBill #RealTimeVacancyRate #InternationalStudents #RealTimeData #HousingMarket #Landlords #Renters #MostListings #MostLandlords #MostKeys #MostApartments #MostLeads #Mostdeals #MostData #MostTrusted #BostonPads

43

3 Comments

State of Rental Housing, takeaways from Q4 2025 Apartment REIT Earnings from AvalonBay Communities, Camden Property Trust, Equity Residential, Essex Property Trust, MAA, UDR - Opening Doors to your future and commentary from Blackstone Blackstone said on its Q4 call that the real estate cycle bottomed two years ago and private values have been slowly improving since. The firm deployed $138B in 2025 its highest in four years including eight REIT privatizations. Jon Gray is predicting increased deployment in 2026, calling it "tremendous momentum" for real estate. The smart money is moving. The REIT earnings data confirms the turn is underway - just don't expect a snapback. H2 2026 into 2027 is where the real inflection becomes visible. ✅ The market is turning slowly. After three years of heavy deliveries, concessions are pulling back. MAA posted four straight quarters of improving rent blends. The market likely bottomed around October. Spring leasing season is the real test. ✅ 2026 will be gradual, not a breakout. Most operators expect 2H to outpace 1H setting up a stronger 2027. Camden's CFO Alex Jessett: roughly 2% rent growth for the year, mostly in the back half. AvalonBay's COO Sean Breslin echoed the same second-half revenue growth should exceed the first, driven by better job growth and less supply. ✅ Uncertainty is the dominant overhang. Camden CEO Ric Campo opened his call saying "uncertainty" could not be more fitting for the sector. EQR CEO Mark Parrell attributed mid-2025 softness to policy and geopolitical uncertainty weighing on employer confidence. EQR also reported move-outs to home purchase hit a record low. ✅ Construction costs are down but starts don't pencil. Hard costs fell low-to-mid single digits, but land prices and soft rents keep deals tough. AvalonBay is cutting starts from $1.65B to ~$800M. Camden noted 5 - 8% cost reductions but said un trended yields only reach the mid-5s. ✅ San Francisco and New York are the clear winners. Tech hiring, AI, return-to-office, and minimal supply make these the standouts. EQR called them "notable bright spots." Camden is exiting California entirely - selling 11 communities for an expected $1.5 - 2B and redeploying into the Sun Belt. ✅ Sun Belt: soft, but green shoots are real. Atlanta and Dallas lead the recovery with occupancy pushing toward mid-96%. Austin lags. Camden CEO Campo made the bull case: the Sun Belt is going to grow, and when it turns, it's going to turn pretty strong and hard. MAA expects deliveries down 60%+ from peak in 2026. ✅ REITs are trading at big discounts to NAV. Apartment REITs trade at ~15x forward FFO vs historical 19 - 20x. Implied cap rates sit around 6s while private deals clear in the 4s - 5s. EQR repurchased $300M in 2025. AvalonBay bought back ~$490M.

8

CUNY's $1B+ Opportunity? A new report from the Center for an Urban Future is proposing a way for the city to tackle our housing shortage while generating up to $55 million in annual revenue: encouraging The City University of New York to ground lease some of the 80 acres of its parking lots to developers for housing. When my team analyzes college campuses, parking lots and garages are one of the first places we look for opportunities. They can be gold mines for untapped value and in theory, it makes perfect sense, but it's not always so simple. Do we need all of them? Can they be moved? Incorporated into a new development? Built underground? Is there too much bedrock? Who pays for that? Often, parking spaces can't just disappear and making new ones can be expensive. This part of the process involves intense analysis and can make or break a project! When it does work, it creates tremendous value. CUNY aside—this a blueprint for universities nationwide facing financial and enrollment challenges while sitting on underutilized assets (parking or not) that can generate revenue for educational programs. The key is structuring deals that align with institutional #missions while maximizing long-term #value. https://lnkd.in/eXhbB3-c

40

For many professionals moving from NYC to the suburbs, the LIRR schedule is the most scrutinized document in their home search. However, as an Associate Broker with 20+ years in the Southwestern Nassau market, I see a common data oversight: The "Last Mile" logistics. The "Gold Standard" stations like Rockville Centre offer incredible frequency (trains every 20 minutes), but the trade-off is often competitive village parking. Conversely, towns like Baldwin offer identical transit times with significantly easier parking access just five minutes away. When advising clients, I push for a "Door-to-Desk" audit rather than a simple station-to-station calculation. Factors like: Parking permit availability vs. cost. Frequency during peak vs. off-peak hours. Seat availability (The Long Beach branch "Quiet" factor). Data on a screen is one thing; the physical experience of a Monday morning commute is another. If you are looking to optimize your transition to Long Island, let’s connect. #RealEstateMarket #NassauCounty #BrokerLife #HousingTrends #LongIsland #LIRR #ExecutiveRelocation

6

1 Comment