Phil Kelly

How to make this your most profitable Q4 ever (not just your biggest): Most founders chase volume in Q4. The smart ones chase margin. Every year I watch Ecommerce brands sprint into Q4 with one goal: “Make as many sales as possible.” But revenue doesn’t pay your team, your 3PL, or your AMEX bill. Profit does. Here are 5 tactics to keep more money in the business this holiday season: 1/ Protect margin like it’s inventory. - Before running any promo, calculate your true contribution margin after discounts, fees, pick/pack, and returns. -If your margin collapses, your “big sale” becomes a silent loss. 2/ Run fewer discounts—but structure them better. - Bundling, tiered offers, and “threshold-based perks” keep AOV up without blowing out margin. - 30% off storewide is a profit killer. Do anything but that. 3/ Raise prices before peak traffic. - Most brands are underpriced going into Q4. - A small lift (+$3–$7) can cover rising ad costs and still convert when traffic surges. 4/ Slow the operational leaks. - Chargebacks, overships, bad packaging dimensions, and inaccurate forecasting can wipe out 5–12% of Q4 gains. - Fixing leaks is the easiest profit you’ll ever make. 5/ Forecast cash weekly, not monthly. - Q4 cash flow gets tight fast. - Weekly forecasting helps you negotiate terms, plan inventory, and avoid “I didn’t realize my cash was this low” moments. --- Profit grows when margin is protected. Pricing should support—not sabotage—your Q4 plan. Operational mistakes are preventable profit drains. Cash flow needs to be managed tighter than ever. These five tactics give founders clarity in the season where mistakes are most expensive. --- Hey, I want to know: Which of these profit tactics is the biggest gap in your Q4 strategy right now? ♻️ Repost this so another founder doesn’t get blinded by “big revenue” and end Q4 with weak profit. P.S. If you want to run Q4 with a CFO-level profit plan, let's connect ➜ https://lnkd.in/eZ9cu5vR

121

83 Comments

Agentic commerce is coming fast. Soon, AI agents won’t just recommend products, they’ll buy them. They’ll compare prices, evaluate reviews, check availability, and execute the transaction on behalf of the customer. Which raises a big question for brands: If an AI agent is making the decision… what does #loyalty look like? This is where most companies are going to get caught flat-footed. Agents won’t care about your website design. They won’t read your email nurture sequence. They won’t fall for urgency timers or discount popups. They will optimize for signals: -trust -data -reputation -repeat behavior And that’s exactly where real loyalty shows up. In this piece on Agentic Commerce, our team breaks down what this shift means for brands and why loyalty is becoming even more strategic in an AI-mediated buying world. Shoutout to Max Savransky, who’s been pushing this conversation internally for a while now and connecting the dots between loyalty strategy and where commerce is headed. A few takeaways that stuck with me: -The buying interface is changing, from websites to AI agents -Discovery will be algorithmic, not visual -Loyalty signals will influence what agents recommend and buy -Brands that own customer relationships will win The companies that thrive in the next era of commerce won’t just run points programs. They’ll earn preference, from both humans and the agents acting on their behalf. Worth the read 👇 https://lnkd.in/eJgBeBSW #AI #AgenticCommerce #CustomerExperience

18

2 Comments

BSR isn’t broken... but it’s no longer enough. For years, Amazon FBA arbitrage sellers have relied on Keepa charts and BSR drops as their compass. They’ve been the quickest path to spotting what’s selling and where to jump in. But something big is changing, and fast. Amazon has begun quietly rolling out a "last 30 days sales" metric on more and more ASINs. And we’re already seeing the ripple effects. Those sharp, telltale BSR drops on Keepa? They’re becoming fewer and farther between. It’s not that sales have stopped, it's that Amazon is tightening the loop on how sellers can "game" the system by artificially inflating rank. Which means if your sourcing strategy still leans heavily on BSR spikes, you're working off an outdated playbook. This isn't just a feature tweak, it's a signal. Amazon is evolving its platform to reward consistency, not volatility. And that’s going to change how smart sellers approach product research. If you're not adjusting your sourcing methods to include a broader set of indicators, like real sales volume, seller count stability, review growth and buy box patterns, you're likely missing out on higher-quality opportunities every single day. Here’s what I’d tell any seller right now: It’s time to go beyond the BSR blips. Start analyzing listings across multiple data points! How stable is the price? Are new sellers rotating in and out? Are reviews indicating actual movement? If Keepa was your GPS, it’s now just one app in a bigger dashboard. Although a lot of the above can be found right there still! The sellers who thrive next year won’t be the ones who hustle harder. They’ll be the ones who think deeper. What is your biggest takeaway from this post? Share in the comments below. #onlinearbitrage #amazonfba #insightsofkeith

9

1 Comment

Shipping from China? 5 mistakes that crush margins before your product hits FBA. 🎧 New Podcast: Stability In Times of Uncertainty - 5 Ways to Fail Shipping From China Hosted by Carlos Alvarez of "Wizards of Ecom" with guest Lior Ohayon (Unicargo) - and if you sell on Amazon (or any marketplace), this one’s worth 30 minutes of your week. Why listen: Lior breaks down the basic things sellers overlook-the stuff that turns “cheap freight” into costly delays, surprise fees, and stockouts. 𝗘𝗽𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗱𝗲 𝗛𝗶𝘁𝘀 & 𝗞𝗲𝘆 𝗧𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗮𝘄𝗮𝘆𝘀: 👉 [00:15] Meet Lior / Unicargo – Global freight partner built for marketplace sellers. 👉 [03:00] The Wrong Questions – What sellers ask vs what they should ask before booking freight. (Incoterms? Cut‑off timing? Docs?) 👉 [18:00] Commercial Invoice Basics – Values, HS codes, Incoterms, ship-to consistency. Get this wrong → clearance pain + fines. 👉 [21:40] “Cheap” Freight Reality – Low quotes hide rollover risk, surprise surcharges, and longer transit. Total landed cost > rate. 👉 [25:45] Know the Chinese Calendar – Holidays = factory slowdowns, port backlogs, blank sailings. Plan buffers or miss FBA windows. 👉 [30:30] Packaging That Survives – Prep + palletization matter. Amazon rejections = relabel fees + delays. 👉 [32:30] Insure Your Load – Carriers limit liability. One wet container can wipe a quarter’s profit. 𝗕𝗼𝘁𝘁𝗼𝗺 𝗟𝗶𝗻𝗲: Stable shipping = better cash flow, in‑stock ASINs, happier buyers. 👇 Catch the full episode (𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗸𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀). Tag a seller who keeps learning the hard way ;) #Unicargo #AmazonFBA #Ecommerce #SupplyChain #WizardsOfEcom #LogisticsTips Lior Ohayon Carlos Alvarez Refael Elbaz Amit Chen Yanai Ganis Dror Levi Erez Dan

25

2 Comments

One of the most painful things about ecom is having dozens of micro tasks that you can never delegate until your biz is 10, 20, 30mil+ Even as you're in talks with Target & scale ads to $1,000 a day, you're still manually uploading products yourself, sending out email campaigns, running AB tests, checking on your inbound shipment, etc. 100 things to do that will pull you away from true growth drivers (ads/product/sales). All because it's too costly to find people who can task switch. Anyone who can do all these things is working for a big brand and wants 130k USD a year. Most agencies will nickle and dime you for this work. So you're stuck doing it yourself. When I was running my brands, I just did it all. And it was stupid. Worked super hard but the effort never led to success. Part of the mistake was trying to be in multiple channels at once and not focusing on what matters. If I could give advice to brands that I learned from my failures: keep it simple. Don't pursue 3 channels at once. Don't spend the weekend rebuilding your whole accounting setup. Don't waste time negotiating ad placements with some random 3rd party you've never heard of. Just focus on the stuff that matters - a great product, ads/retail sales, and most importantly, profit. Let a lot of the other fires burn. You'll learn which ones matter and which ones don't. Back to building 🤙

45

12 Comments

Absolutely agree 👏 Most people still underestimate how much of the real value in AI is hidden under the hood. The UI might catch attention, but what really matters is the work layer. The orchestration, reliability, and scalability that turn an AI app into something usable in production. The winners won’t be the ones who make it look shiny, but those who make it trustworthy, repeatable, and safe to “fly” with. ~~||~~~

2

“People think of us as great DTC investors but they miss the point. The job of a VC is to understand the latest innovations that will change the world and have a prepared mind to find the best opportunities and value layers.”  On her latest episode of Sourcery, Molly O'Shea went behind the scenes with our co-founders Carter Reum and Courtney Reum to find out what long-term investing looks like right now. Molly dug into the mechanics: what builds conviction, what are the second and third waves that excite us, how we stay disciplined through cycles and what it means to be responsible stewards of institutional capital. Humming through it all is the heartbeat of the firm: when you hear Carter talk about his 60 day sprint, that’s our operator-led model showing up daily for founders. Grateful to Molly for the thoughtful conversation. If you want a candid look at early stage investing, this is worth a listen. Link in comments.

105

6 Comments

This billboard says: “Stop Hiring Humans. The Era of AI Employees Is Here.” I believe this mindset is fundamentally wrong. At itmatters, we argue for human–machine teaming, because AI should augment people, not replace them. To suggest otherwise misses the point of leadership, culture, and society. Three reasons why this message troubles me: 1. Culture is strategy. An organisation’s strength lies in its people, their creativity, and their shared values. Strip that away, and you erode resilience. 2. Society must empower humans. Innovation should raise the tide for everyone, not concentrate wealth in the hands of a few. If AI adoption sidelines people, we risk deepening inequality rather than solving it. 3. The tax imbalance is real. Business must pay National Insurance on every human employee. But no such cost exists when “hiring” AI. That imbalance nudges companies toward machines over people, not because it’s strategically better, but because the tax system makes it cheaper. That’s not progress; it’s distortion. The AI era isn’t about eliminating people. It’s about designing systems where humans thrive because of AI, not in spite of it. This is why frameworks like STRIKE and AIblindspot™ matter: they align AI adoption with strategic purpose, human-centred design, and trust. Without them, we risk creating brittle organisations and an imbalanced society. AI only matters if it is built on trust. And trust starts with keeping people at the centre. Subscribe to the itmatters AI Leadership Briefing – clarity, context, and credibility for leaders in a shifting world.

3

This insight from @Appcharge underscores the power of optimized web stores for conversion! 📈 It's clear that focusing on the user journey truly pays off. Great work, Roei Barassi, Maor Sason and team, driving such impactful results. Moneta VC is proud to support this innovation!

15

1 Comment

🚨 Big Changes Ahead for FBA Sellers 🚨 Starting January 1, 2026, Amazon will no longer offer prep or labeling services for U.S. FBA shipments — including AWD, AGL, Amazon SEND, and the Supply Chain Portal. This means every shipment must arrive fully prepped & labeled before reaching Amazon’s fulfillment centers. ❌ No more Amazon-managed packaging ✅ 100% seller-managed or 3PL-managed prep 📦 What this means for you: Avoid delays, chargebacks, and rejected inventory Partner with a reliable Amazon-compliant prep provider Adjust workflows before the deadline At Universal Shipping Inc., we specialize in Amazon-compliant prep & labeling to keep your business running smoothly. Let’s get you ready for 2026 ✅ #AmazonFBA #EcommerceFulfillment #FBAprep #AmazonSeller #SupplyChain #3PL #EcommerceLogistics #UniversalShipping #OnlineRetail #FBASellers #AmazonCompliant #EcommerceTips #LogisticsSolutions

12

2 Comments

December sales look great until January refunds arrive. Smart Amazon sellers plan for returns early to protect cash flow, stock levels, and Q1 growth. #AmazonFBA #EcommerceSellers #Q4Strategy #Q1Planning #CashFlowManagement #InventoryPlanning #AmazonSellers #EcommerceGrowth

18

8 Comments

Great speaking with Adam O'Donnell The Founder Podcast podcast to share Augment journey, lessons from raising $110M, and why relentless customer empathy and truth-seeking are the only competitive edges for startups especially in the AI era! Thanks for having me, Adam

67

3 Comments

It’s surprising how many brands still overlook Amazon’s Small & Light program. The lack of awareness directly kills margins and sales velocity. 🚨 S&L gives eligible products access to significantly lower FBA fees, but pricing is critical. A product priced at $10.00+ pays higher FBA costs. If that same product meets the size and weight requirements and is priced at $9.99, they see a significant fee reduction. This brand, listing a product at $10.50 is paying $3.73 in FBA fees. By pricing at $9.99, their FBA fee drops to $2.91. Even after the price adjustment, the brand nets an additional $0.39 per unit. 🤯 At a unit level, it may seem insignificant, but the price point puts them in a whole new field. Their runrate will go up, their advertising will convert better and there's more money added in their pocket. MAP does exist in some cases but you'd be shocked how many brands are still pricing their products between $10.99 - $10.99. It’s worth taking full advantage of the programs Amazon offers. A small pricing adjustments may create unbelievable impact.

74

14 Comments

Why DTC Brands Command Higher Exit Multiples than Amazon FBA Businesses KeyInsights from Andrew Maff, BlueTuskr Amazon FBA businesses typically exit at 2–3× EBITDA, while DTC brands can achieve 3–6× EBITDA. DTC brands carry additional value through social media followings, email lists, customer data, and website traffic. DTC appeals to a broader range of buyers beyond aggregators, including companies able to integrate the brand into their existing operations. Buyers prize DTC brands for their ability to utilise existing audiences to sell complementary products, driving further growth. Watch the full episode here▶️https://lnkd.in/dY8FvqD7 #AmazonFBA #DTC #EcommerceGrowth #BrandValuation #BusinessExit #EcommerceStrategy #OnlineBusiness #FBAExit #DTCExit #BusinessGrowth

15

17 Comments