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I have made up the sentences below.

(1a) I say to Jack, "The man ten feet ahead of us dropped a bottle of water. I think he didn't notice that he dropped it."

(2a) I say to Jack, "The man ten feet ahead of us dropped a bottle of water. I don't guess he noticed that he dropped it."

Most of my non-native friends revised them to the ones below.

(1b) I say to Jack, "The man ten feet ahead of us dropped a bottle of water. I don't think he noticed that he dropped it."

(2b) I say to Jack, "The man ten feet ahead of us dropped a bottle of water. I guess he didn't notice that he dropped it."

I don't understand why it is more natural to say "I don't think he noticed" and "I guess he didn't notice".

Thank you for your help.

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2 Answers 2

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2b is fine, but 2a (don't guess) is not.

(Edit 3 I don't guess is a US southernism meaning I don't suppose. A search in Google Books for "I don't guess he" shows us some examples.)

There is nothing wrong with 1a. Think governs negative-raising, and hence 1a and 1b mean the same.

NEGATIVE-RAISING

a rule that moves a negative element out of the complement clause of certain verbs, such as think, into the main clause, as in the derivation of He doesn't think that he'll finish.

Edit

I don't think he noticed is much more idiomatic than I think he didn't notice.

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    Nevertheless, to a native speaker I don't think he noticed is much more idiomatic than I think he didn't notice. I can't tell you why, it's 'just the way we say it'. Commented Jun 30 at 9:05
  • Thanks, @Kate. I have added that to my answer. Commented Jun 30 at 9:20
  • I don't guess is a US southernism (meaning I don't suppose...) Commented Jun 30 at 22:16
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    Thank you, @TimR. I have added that to my answer. Commented Jul 1 at 0:47
  • A tip on the Google Books search, better to search for "I don't guess he" (or they, she) to eliminate the false hits where the meaning is actually "guess". Commented Jul 1 at 10:18
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When you say "I don't think" or "I guess" you are expressing an uncertainty about the next part. Like, I think but I'm not sure.

Nowadays, you don't really hear people say "I don't guess".

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