Martyn Eeles

FinCist Global Financial Tidbits: - 💰 AUSTRIA Austria is among the wealthiest nations in the EU, with a GDP per capita of approximately €55,000 (2024 estimate), consistently exceeding the EU average. Known as the "Gateway to Eastern Europe," Austria's central position makes it a key hub for trade and finance between Western and Eastern Europe. Numerous multinational companies establish their Central and Eastern European headquarters in Vienna. Vienna is home to the Vienna Stock Exchange (Wiener Börse), established in 1771, ranking it as one of the oldest stock exchanges in the world. The city is also home to OPEC’s headquarters (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries). Austrian banks (like Raiffeisen Bank International, Erste Group) are among the most influential in Central and Eastern Europe. Tourism accounts for ~15% of GDP, thanks to the Alps, Vienna’s cultural heritage, and music festivals (Mozart, Strauss, opera). Winter sports tourism is especially vital. Austria traditionally maintains low unemployment rates (around 5%) and a robust social welfare system, making it attractive for its high standard of living. Austria exports machinery, vehicles, iron, steel, paper, chemicals, and food products. Its main trade partners are Germany, Italy, Switzerland, and the U.S. Home to Red Bull (the global energy drink giant), Swarovski crystals, and world-class machinery/engineering firms. Also known for Viennese coffee culture—which UNESCO declared an intangible cultural heritage. 👉 Fun Trivia: Austria was one of the first countries in the world to issue a 100,000 Schilling gold coin (before the Euro) — one of the largest denomination coins ever issued. Vienna consistently ranks as the world’s most livable city due to its affordability, culture, and safety.

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EURUSD is testing below 1.1700, with the 1.1680/90 support zone holding firm over the past two trading sessions. The USD remains supported despite softer PPI data and lower US yields— likely driven by longer-term yields retreating from extremes and some profit-taking on USD shorts ahead of Thursday’s CPI release and next week’s FOMC meeting. The ECB rate decision is also this afternoon, though no surprises are expected. The market anticipates the ECB will hold rates steady, with only a 7bp cut priced in by year-end. A noteworthy technical level is the uptrend line from early August, currently around 1.1670. This serves as a key pivot—any clear break below could trigger further position reduction.

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💡 #Crypto at Peak: not a bubble, but a structural shift My latest column for Oninvest is out now. The 2025 crypto rally is not just another speculative spike, it marks the moment cryptocurrencies have solidified their status as a full-fledged investment class. What is different this time: #Bitcoin, #Ethereum, #Ripple all moving in tandem. BTC peaked above $123,000, ETH crossed $3,000, XRP climbed to $3 and reclaimed third place by #marketcap. Total #cryptomarket capitalisation is approaching $3.7 trillion. Institutional capital is in control. YTD inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs exceed $15 billion. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust holds over 700,000 BTC which is around 3.5% of total supply. Corporate crypto reserves now surpass $150 billion, rivaling FX reserves of smaller countries. The US is no longer hostile, but is setting the rules. With Trump’s executive order on a strategic Bitcoin reserve and three major laws under debate - CLARITY Act, GENIUS Act, Anti-CBDC Act - the #regulatorytone has turned constructive. Broad bipartisan support signals a lasting framework, not just headline noise. #Volatility is falling while prices rise. 30-day realised BTC volatility is below 28%, near multi-year lows. Over 70% of BTC remains unmoved for more than 90 days, reinforcing the view that long-term holders dominate the market now. #Options markets provide clear signals. On Deribit, open interest clusters around $140–150k BTC strikes. Historical patterns, halving cycles, and technical charts all point toward year-end targets in that range. 💬 What does this mean for investors now? It is no longer about chasing momentum, but monetising long-term positions: Holding BTC and ETH + selling options to generate yield without losing exposure. Diversification via #altcoins like XRP, tokenised assets, and Ethereum-linked securitised products. Passive income strategies such as ETH staking and structured crypto deposits. ⚙️ The broader point: crypto now behaves more like gold or bonds, a portfolio component in times of macro stress, inflation, and tariff uncertainty. The 2025 rally will likely be remembered not just for its size, but as the moment crypto became a structural part of global finance. 🔗 Read the full article here https://lnkd.in/eMXBpSX6 What is your view? Is crypto now simply another institutional asset class, or does it still hold something fundamentally different? #cryptomarkets #BTC #ETH #XRP #digitalassets #investmentstrategy #digitalcoins #cryptoETF #tokens #cryptorally #institutionalinvestors #expertvoice #linkedinvoices #diversification #editorial #mediacommentary #linkedinfinance

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📈 (.hu) Investors in #Hungary are navigating a middle path between conservative and speculative strategies, positioning themselves between cautious Romanian portfolios and the aggressive, risk-oriented style of Bulgarian investors https://lnkd.in/dbs4uNwd

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Heidelberger/SQD - the first Crypto Treasury Company in Germany Crypto treasury companies are rapidly gaining popularity in the US, with MicroStrategy leading the pack. Newly formed examples include Tether-backed Twenty One Capital, Janover (Solana), and Ether Capital (Ethereum). These publicly listed companies offer both retail & institutional investors easy access to specific crypto tokens - at a time when direct buying, custody + trading remain complex and restricted for many. Unlike traditional ETFs, these companies often participate in the underlying ecosystems and use innovative financing & optimization tools, offering investors indirect yet strategic & enhanced exposure. As regulatory uncertainty continues to cloud direct access to crypto in many regions, these crypto treasury firms are emerging as key conduits between public markets & the decentralized world. In doing so, they bring one thing to crypto markets that has been missing so far: diamond hands. Yes, crypto tokens are extremely liquid - often more so than stocks of comparable market cap - but most trading is driven by short-term momentum players. While long-term conviction is often *voiced* passionately, it’s rarely acted upon. Crypto treasury companies fill that gap by buying tokens for the long term - ideally, never selling. One of Apeiron Investment Group's highest conviction tokens is SQD SQD.AI is the first & fastest-growing decentralized database network in the world. Founded in 2021 by Dmitry Zhelezov, PhD, and Marcel Fohrmann, the company has grown over 100% in the past 12 months and is already generating millions in revenue. It’s seen as one of the most promising innovators in the database space for AI agents and Web3 applications. Strategic token holders of SQD.AI include Elevat3 Capital (a German venture fund with a strategic partnership with Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund), as well as Zee Prime Capital, Hypersphere, Digital Finance Group, Banter Capital, and Blockchange Ventures. The SQD token is already listed on major crypto exchanges like Bybit, Crypto.com & Binance - and will start trading on Coinbase tomorrow. A strong 3rd-party analysis of SQD can be found here: https://lnkd.in/eRqgiWus Today, Apeiron has acquired a German-listed company - Heidelberger Beteiligungsholding AG (Ticker: IPOK:DE) - with the intention of refocusing it exclusively on accumulating SQD tokens. This makes Heidelberger - soon to be renamed "SQD.AI Strategies AG" - the first German-listed crypto treasury company. The company holds approximately USD 10 million in cash and liquid assets at the moment, which will soon be invested in SQD. I'm very happy to have found a strategic partner in Clemens Jakopitsch, who has already made significant investments into SQD on behalf of the Piëch Family Office. Clemens will join as the new Chairman, and the Piëch Family has indicated its intent to anchor future funding rounds. Stay tuned!

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The most thought-provoking concept was by Larry Fink, the founder and CEO of BlackRock: how will Central Banks deal with tokenization and digitalization, and what will that change imply for the USD. He added, this change will be huge, it will happen quickly, and most countries are not prepared. The speed of change, well, it continues to accelerate. #FII9 #foodsecurity #AquaCapital

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Yesterday I attended the 10th Anniversary Conference of True Global Ventures– a closed online event that delivered exactly what you'd hope for from a room full of serious venture operators. Zero hype, maximum signal. Big thanks to Sergey Dashkov for the invitation. The panel on Asset Tokenization with Dušan Stojanović, Tal Elyashiv, Andrew Durgee, Kelly Rodriques, and Yat Siu was exceptionally well done. These aren't people selling you on the dream – they're building the infrastructure. A few things that landed: Tokenization as rails, not revolution. The conversation wasn't about disrupting everything overnight. It was about building infrastructure that lets capital move with less friction, more transparency, and better access. Institutional perspective, not crypto Twitter energy. Diversification within asset classes. One insight that stuck is that tokenization allows granular exposure within a single asset class – venture, real estate, private credit – without needing the scale to build traditional diversified positions. For family offices, this changes portfolio construction geometry entirely. For me this aligns perfectly – structured access to alternatives through digital-first infrastructure, not legacy intermediaries. Tokenization enables better capital allocation, price discovery, and liquidity for assets that have been illiquid by design. Thanks True Global Ventures for the event and for creating space where these conversations happen at the institutional level.

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Ok, let’s recap Companies in sectors only vaguely related to digital assets (in the best case: gaming, golf carts, …) (*) raise new capital (often an order of magnitude bigger than current market cap) to become Bitcoin Treasury Companies, because the market rewarded them with at a premium to NAV Now that that is no longer the case (market value is below the value of their crypto holdings), they are starting to buyback shares: in theory, a correct and value-adding decision when market price is below intrinsic value; in practice still a stupid thing to do because their intrinsic value is close to zero… As the legacy businesses are not exactly doing fine (these companies are lossmaking or simply shell vehicles), the only way to repurchase shares is with new debt: good luck to anyone lending to them! Alternatively, they will have to sell some of their crypto assets, which however defies the purpose of raising equity to buy it in the first place Micheal Saylor of Strategy himself said recently that he is “…𝘰𝘱𝘦𝘯 𝘵𝘰 𝘴𝘦𝘭𝘭 𝘤𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘴 𝘰𝘳 𝘸𝘢𝘳𝘳𝘢𝘯𝘵𝘴 𝘵𝘰 𝘧𝘶𝘯𝘥 𝘥𝘪𝘷𝘪𝘥𝘦𝘯𝘥𝘴” (read: he will be 𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗰𝗲𝗱 to sell BTC to pay coupons and dividends on all the securities he issued, hopefully for him at a higher price but that’s not guaranteed…) https://lnkd.in/djztUv9r “𝗙𝗧 - 𝗖𝗿𝘆𝗽𝘁𝗼 𝗵𝗼𝗮𝗿𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗻 𝘁𝗼 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗯𝘂𝘆𝗯𝗮𝗰𝗸𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗽𝘂𝘀𝗵 𝘁𝗼 𝗯𝗼𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗳𝗮𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀” https://lnkd.in/d8tqE3y2 (*) My favourite is French company Boostheat, a player in the energy efficiency sector, which raised €250,000 to buy a couple of Bitcoin…

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Who actually holds the asset in RWA tokenization? When someone buys a tokenized asset, many assume they now own the asset itself but in most cases, that is not how the system actually works. In many RWA projects the asset is held by a company, a fund, or a special purpose vehicle. The token holder owns rights defined in the legal agreements behind the project rather than the asset itself. Imagine a building is tokenized. The building itself is usually owned by a company created for that purpose. Investors buy tokens that give them rights connected to that company or to the income the building generates. The token holder therefore does not hold the building itself. Ownership of the property remains with the company listed in the land registry. If the building generates rental income, that money must first reach the company that owns the property. Only then can it be distributed to token holders according to the agreements that define how income is shared. That leads to questions like: Who controls the company that owns the asset? Who has the authority to sell the property if circumstances change? Who verifies the rental income before it is distributed to token holders? What happens if the manager responsible for the property stops performing his duties? Is there an insurance that covers for missed income e.g. In case of rental defaults? These questions may sound administrative, yet they determine whether the token holder has enforceable rights or only an expectation that payments will continue. Before investing in any token linked to a real-world asset, one point should always be clear: Where exactly is the asset legally held, and who has control over it? If that answer is not obvious, what exactly does the token holder own? In your experience, how clearly do token projects explain this ownership chain today?

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I believe education is extremely important—especially when it comes to trading. But is the model of platforms that collect “challenge fees” in exchange for education really the right answer? FTMO-style prop firms can be seen as client-acquisition–oriented trading service platforms that, in many countries, sit in a regulatory gray zone with financial authorities. In essence, they function like B-book dealers without actually holding client funds, and the repeated “challenge” fees have become their primary revenue source. Is that truly the right approach to education? What do you think?

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Among the 15 EU #CLO deals priced since 25 June 2025, top-tier (tightest 10%) pricing for AAA, AA, A, BBB, BB, and B tranches was 131.4, 190, 222, 310, 560, and 850 bps, respectively. CIFC European Funding VII and Fidelity Grand Harbour CLO 2025-1 priced their AAA tranches at 131 bps — among the tightest levels recorded. Premium subscribers can read the full article here. https://lnkd.in/ed6HMjjn

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Some weeks back, I'd attended a Web3 DeFi Blockchain 100 Leaders Online Meeting in which an agricultural pioneer had created RWA Tokenization of agricultural product yield which was fully taken up. Just discussed with a Swiss business partner why Serbia can't do the RWA Tokenization of Yields & Export Growth and allow Foreign Investors to actually OWN the agricultural land, in perpetuity. ... during 2025, Serbia exported more than 276,000 tonnes of fruit worth €728.5m, making fruit, alongside wine, one of the country’s strongest export assets. The government will increase support per hectare for intensive production this year, as well as investments in perennial plantings, protected cultivation, processing and cold chain infrastructure. Maximum investment value for establishing perennial plantings will rise from three million to five million dinars per hectare. https://lnkd.in/gJcJeSTa

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In 2018, Bulgaria sold 213,500 BTC This is now worth 79% of its public debt That means Bulgaria could have been almost debt free. Instead they must spend money servicing debt that could have gone to productive purposes, and/or print money to service debt which debases the currency and widens the wealth gap. In 2025, not owning Bitcoin is not only high risk, it's fiscally irresponsible

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The rebalancing: are the US megacap tech companies the only game in town? Investors are pouring record amounts into global equity funds that specifically exclude the US, according to analysis of data from fund tracker EPFR by Société Générale (FT)

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Ok, this clearly was too concise, let me try again.   As input we have the following "index arb" strategy (all numbers approximate):   Leg1 is 10x smaller than Leg2. Market in which Leg1 is trading is 100x smaller than market for Leg2. Leg1 is consistently losing money, Leg2 is making astronomical amounts of money.   What is going on here? Why is Leg1 losing money? What's the point of Leg1, it barely hedges any risk and loses a lot of money, why not trade just Leg2?   Is there anything counterintuitive and unexpected (no) and should we be sceptical (yes).   Let's for simplicity assume it's only one camel vs retail crowd, no other competitors  If Leg1 and Leg2 open with a gap between them you can try buying Leg1 and selling Leg2. They will of course converge to the same point, but *which* point? Almost whichever you want, if you have enough capital! The easiest way to get it to where you want is to trade a lot (vs market volume) in the leg that is less liquid. By the time you closed the arb, from the perspective of an external observer everything looks "normal" - arb is closed, market is efficient, thank you, kindly camel. In reality of course the point the market converged to is not equilibrium of some sort, you massively shifted illiquid Leg1( by tens of basis points) through market impact of your trading. Note that it does not mean that Leg1 price went up Vs open, only that it went up Vs where it would have been without you. During unwind of the Leg1 later in the day you revert those tens of basis point of market impact, monetizing it on Leg2.   Of course Leg1 would lose money consistently, try buying something at the speed of 30% of the market volume and then selling it at the same speed! Leg2 is making money not because you have perfect foresight of where the market is going but simply because you cause the move of the market by impact of unwinding Leg1.    Another useful thought experiment: how to tell if your strategy is likely legit Vs something that will result in SEBI sending you a 100 page pdf: imagine reducing all sizes in your strategy by a factor of a 100. If it works better than before (per unit of risk/in terms of margins) then it looks legit. If it stops working altogether after scaling down then question your life choices. Any "normal" strategy works worse as it scales up, due to market impact, unless your strategy IS market impact.   I can't send an email to 3000 employees of JS but come on, folks, you are all very smart and many of you are smarter than me. Be honest with yourself.

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Since October 7, 2023, Israel’s stock market has soared nearly 80% in USD terms. Not despite the war. During it. Investors are investing in #resilience, #innovation, and long-term strength. Israel’s economy is sending a signal: R&D-powered. War-tested. Future-focused. Meanwhile, other regional markets? Lagging. This isn’t just a recovery, it’s a recalibration of power in the region. And it shows. In numbers, not in empty words.

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Day 205/365: How long will it take to sell your property in Cyprus? Ask Wire supported a groundbreaking thesis that tries to answer just that—by using machine learning, macro trends, and listing data to predict Time on Market (TOM) for residential real estate. In a nutshell: Cyprus homes sell faster with better photos, clearer descriptions, and stable macro conditions—AI now predicts how long with precision. Key findings from the study: • ML > Regression: Traditional OLS models were outperformed by XGBoost and Random Forests, especially in predicting fast (<30 days) and slow (>120 days) sales. • Marketing matters: The number of images and topics in listing descriptions (e.g. energy efficiency, accessibility) were stronger predictors of TOM than bedrooms or bathrooms. • Macroeconomics bite: High interest rates, inflation, and unemployment significantly increase TOM. • Seller reputation counts: Some sellers consistently outperformed others, with one major agent having a >60% chance of selling in under 30 days. • Location ≠ everything: Proximity to beaches and supermarkets helped, but seller-level data and listing quality played a bigger role. • AI + explainability: SHAP values and PDPs were used to break the “black box,” showing what actually influences TOM and by how much. So what? This sets the groundwork for real estate platforms (like Bazaraki) and analytics providers (like us) to predict not just value—but also liquidity. A TOM prediction engine can help agents justify pricing, developers plan cash flows, and sellers benchmark expectations. Congrats to Andreas Stamatiades for a thoughtful, rigorous piece of applied data science.

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🇨🇿💼 Czech National Bank Buys Bitcoin for the First Time as Part of a Digital Asset “Test Portfolio” The Czech National Bank has made its first-ever purchase of digital assets, creating a $1 million test portfolio that includes bitcoin, an unnamed USD stablecoin, and a tokenized deposit. The assets are held outside the CNB’s official reserves, marking an exploratory initiative rather than a policy shift. The goal is to gain hands-on operational experience with digital assets — from key management, custody and approvals to settlement, auditing, and AML compliance. The bank will share its findings over time, with a full assessment expected in two to three years. Governor Aleš Michl emphasized that the portfolio is too small to impact financial stability and does not influence monetary policy. The koruna remains the country’s legal tender, but the CNB wants to stay prepared as tokenization, new payment methods, and blockchain technologies mature. The move builds on previous steps from earlier this year, including an $18 million purchase of Coinbase shares and exploratory discussions about potentially allocating a small portion of reserves to bitcoin. While not a shift toward bitcoin-backed reserves, this marks the first confirmed instance of the Czech central bank acquiring bitcoin, highlighting a commitment to understand emerging digital asset infrastructure and prepare for the financial landscape of the future. SOURCE: The Block

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