Josh Wand

The U.S. wine category is shrinking. Bonanza Cabernet keeps growing anyway. That's worth looking at if you're in any business where the category is moving against you. U.S. wine sales fell roughly 6% in 2024 (SipSource). Wine Intelligence (acquired by IWSR) forecasts volume dropping at -2% CAGR through 2027, faster than the -1% pace from 2017 to 2022. Regular wine drinkers aged 21-34 fell from 29% of the base to 23% between 2019 and 2023. The board decks all have the same sad category chart right now. And then a $20 Cabernet from the Caymus Vineyards family just keeps taking share. According to Impact Databank, Bonanza launched at 131,000 cases in the U.S. in 2020 and has added 60,000 to 80,000 cases every year since. Double-digit volume growth. The category was falling the whole time. We dug into how. Four things stood out. 1. They priced against the occasion, not the shelf position. Bonanza lives where a weeknight steak dinner lives. Around $20. The slot was crowded but no one held it with real winemaking credibility behind them. Silicon Valley Bank's 2025 State of the Wine Industry report found the top quartile of premium wineries grew revenue 22% in 2024. The value-with-credibility window is open. Has been for a while. 2. They borrowed trust rather than building it cold. Chuck Wagner's name is on it. Decades of Caymus equity, spent carefully on a value tier without pulling the flagship down with it. That's genuinely hard to do. Heritage brands tend to hoard the halo or blow it. Bonanza did neither. 3. They dropped the rules the buyer never cared about. No vintage on the label. No single appellation. They blend across California lots to hit a consistent taste profile every time. Wine people were unhappy about this. Buyers at Costco Wholesale and Total Wine & More were not. The person grabbing a bottle on a Tuesday just wanted it to taste the same as last time. Bonanza built for that person. The consistency thing is probably the most transferable idea here for anyone building a consumer brand outside wine. 4. Supply structure did the real work. Multi-region sourcing means they buy fruit where the value sits each year. Cost structure moves with the market. A Napa-only brand at that price can't follow. The wine world sells vintage variation as romance. The grocery shopper reads it as inconsistency. Bonanza picked a side and moved on. A declining category and a growing brand at the same time. It's not rare, actually. For any team staring at a flat or shrinking market: the category number is an average. Find the occasion that wasn't priced for. Use trust you already have. Ignore the rules your customer never knew existed. What brand in your category is pulling this off? Drop it below. If this is useful, follow me on LinkedIn. We do this regularly across growth, transformation, and value creation. #WineIndustry #BrandGrowth #MarketStrategy #ConsumerInsights

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*Younger consumers to the wine industry*: Make it portable AND resealable. In our latest Business of Drinks episode, Britt West, Chief Commercial Officer at GALLO, explains why Barefoot is betting that 200mL TetraPaks will be the next big growth lever for wine. Today’s consumers — especially Gen Z, as he observes — are looking for: 🔸 Single-serve formats that fit their lifestyles and budgets 🔸 Resealable, grab-and-go convenience for occasions like parties, tailgates, and beach days 🔸 Great quality, with no trade-off in freshness or flavor With advances in TetraPak technology like tighter oxygen control and better product stability, wine can now travel and stay fresh in places that glass — or even cans — can’t. This is a wake-up call for every brand in the category: Format innovation is one of wine’s biggest untapped opportunities. 💥 🎧 Watch the full episode on Business of Drinks #BarefootWine #Gallo #BrittWest #WineInnovation #PackagingDesign #BusinessOfDrinks #DrinksBusiness #GenZConsumers #WineTrends #SingleServe #BeverageIndustry Scott Rosenbaum Caroline Lamb

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