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https://x.com/Conflict_Radar/status/1983054632021832050

The above X account says that:

Pakistan reportedly conducted an missile test early today, near Harnai, Balochistan.

enter image description here

https://x.com/ConflictUpdatee/status/1983016479701512592

The above X account says that:

Ballistic Missile Test of Pakistan 🇵🇰

USAF Cobra Ball which collect optical and electronic data on ballistic missiles,was active near the Pakistan for about 3 hours with “Transponders off” around 5:30AM IST. Pakistan NOTAM was active that time and Airspace was clear.

https://x.com/developingpak/status/1983144898518745390

This X account says that

Some very beautiful cloud formations, and trails, seen over the southern and central parts of Pakistan today around the break of dawn:

So, is it the result of a missile test?

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    Who says it isn't? Why would it even be under question, or rather, what are you skeptical about? Commented Oct 28 at 17:58
  • I don't think that cloud formations make such sharp and erratic turns as these. Perhaps "Can Pakistan control their ballistic missiles yet?" Or was it chasing a purposely dodging target? But that isn't a ballistic missile anyway. Commented Oct 28 at 20:19
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    @pipe: We have three claims here: (1) That a missile test happened, (2) that there was a weird cloud formation (some comments on the first link call it "a rare lenticular cloud formation", "rainbow bridge" or "circumhorizontal arc") and (3) [implied by first link] the former caused the latter. I am skeptical about the third claim, and assume the OP is too. Commented Oct 29 at 2:22
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    @WeatherVane: Even when an aircraft flies in a straight line, its contrails can end up curved after being blown around by shifting winds. Commented 2 days ago
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    @NateEldredge I was thinking about the more apparently sharp turning trails further back. A ballistic missile would only be responsible if it was malfunctioning. It looks as if someone saw "USAF Cobra Ball which collect optical and electronic data on ballistic missiles" and went "Ah! Ballistic missile." Commented 2 days ago

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News sources tell us that the clouds in the image are natural phenomena, notably India Today and The Tribune.

More authoritative information on the formation of lenticular clouds can be found on the Mount Washington Observatory and UK Met Office websites.

The post on X does not mention the USAF Cobra Ball having detected any missile activity (just that it was there). The NOTAM ("Notice to Airmen") issued by the Pakistan Airports Authority for 28-29 October 2025 was explained "in the light of potential Indian military exercises near the Pakistani border" (The News).

Suggestions that the features shown in the image are related to military activity seem (at time of posting) to be limited to social media.

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    The News article actually says it's an unnatural formation caused by airplane contrails. But I feel like these sources leave something to be desired. They're popular media rather than scientific literature, with no cited sources except "scientists say". (The last one cites the Pakistan Meteorology Department who aren't exactly an independent source.) And at best, they would seem to assert that such clouds can arise naturally; that doesn't prove that these particular ones did. Commented 2 days ago
  • Good point - I've removed that one and juggled the text to include some more authoritative sources. I'm not sure how anyone would prove the reason for a specific cloud, but I can add when sources that are both academic and independent get round to issuing a statement about the clouds over Quetta/Harnai - unless you already have a link (or one that proves they were something else). Commented 2 days ago
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    A noctilucent cloud seems a better fit than lenticular Commented yesterday
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    Interestingly, the "scientists say" citation doesn't even claim any scientists said these were lenticular clouds, it just says scientists say lenticular clouds are beautiful. Both articles just assert that these are lenticular clouds, which is strange because they don't look anything like lenticular clouds at all. Commented yesterday
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    I lived in southern Tokyo for years, downwind from mount Fuji and the Hakone caldera. I saw plenty of lenticular clouds but never anything remotely like this - it just isn't what they look like. On the other hand, high altitude vapour trails from a rocket launch do look quite a bit like this. There's a part where the vapour trail has been moved around by wind currents and a part where it's spread out due to low pressure. I don't know anything at all about missile tests in Pakistan, but assuming the timing and location are correct it would seem like quite a reasonable explanation for that image Commented 4 hours ago

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