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I understand that the SLS solid rocket boosters and core stage are designed to be expendable, and will crash into the ocean at terminal velocity. Presumably, when that happens, it results in a large fireball and the complete destruction of the boosters. Yet, I have noticed on Polymarket there is a market for whether the boosters on the Artemis II test flight will explode, which seems to be priced unexpectedly low. The definition of an explosion in the rules of the market is quite generous:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the Artemis II mission explodes at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 minutes after it makes contact with Earth upon landing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count).

Normally, prediction markets are very good predictors of the news (often better than expert assessment), so I am curious if I am misunderstanding something here. Will the boosters on the Artemis flight not explode for some reason when they hit the water?

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    $\begingroup$ Excitement (from explosions) is not guaranteed. $\endgroup$ Commented yesterday

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Presumably, when that happens, it results in a large fireball

Why would that occur? Unlike a liquid rocket which (normally) has a controlled shutoff, the solid fuel will burn to completion. There should not be any significant fuel remaining at impact. The structure will be damaged at impact, but I wouldn't call that an explosion. If the market wants to or not, that's up to them. Personally, this market seems ill-phrased to me.

That said, since there is no planned recovery, I assumed there would also be no plans to collect video of the impact. Cameras on the booster would need either recovery, transmission to a satellite, or transmission to a nearby vessel. Since there's no need to refurb or to care about issues after separation, I doubt folks would want to spend money on any of the three. Could happen, but I would plan for there to be no information about the impact.

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  • $\begingroup$ The market is not solely whether it explodes on landing. If it exploded due to a industrial accident, it exploded on launch due to a casing defect, and if the launch aborted and the flight termination system fired, it would all pay out . $\endgroup$ Commented 5 hours ago
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The parachutes on shuttle mission STS-4's boosters failed to open so the boosters splashed down at their terminal velocity.

Although they were not recovered, they were located and photographed.

Although broken up, they didn't explode.

enter image description here

enter image description here

Picture source: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=10052.0

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    $\begingroup$ Interesting. Clearly not an explosion in the technical sense, but definitely seems like it meets the criteria as stated. $\endgroup$ Commented 2 days ago
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    $\begingroup$ @Daniel How so? The resolution rules (which you omitted in the question) state "The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by NASA, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary." This evidence has to be collected and posted within 60 minutes of impact. That's not going to happen. $\endgroup$ Commented yesterday
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    $\begingroup$ @Daniel yeah their definition of what constitutes an explosion is absolutely not how normal people would define an explosion (which usually is defined involving some sort of combustion or internal overpressure event) $\endgroup$ Commented yesterday
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    $\begingroup$ @DavidHammen It does not say the evidence has to be collected within 60 minutes of splashdown, it says the explosion has to happen. Maybe 10 seconds after splashdown, the FTS shorts out and blows. $\endgroup$ Commented 5 hours ago
  • $\begingroup$ @DavidHammen yeah as for what will happen with the market, I suspect there won't be evidence either way so it'll eventually resolve 50/50. The reason I say it seems like it meets the criteria is because the way the rules define an explosion is extremely loose. It doesn't seem to require any kind of combustion or blast wave. Just a violent, catastrophic event that destroys at least part of the vehicle. Crashing into the water seems very much within that definition $\endgroup$ Commented 2 hours ago
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so I am curious if I am misunderstanding something here. Will the boosters on the Artemis flight not explode for some reason when they hit the water?

It doesn't matter what we think. The only thing that matters is in the two cases where shuttle SRBs were lost (STS-4 and STS-51-L) would they have been a Yes or a No.

An additional thought.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the Artemis II mission explodes at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 minutes after it makes contact with Earth upon landing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the shuttle program the SRBs were fueled in Utah, I assume the same for these boosters. So they are already on the clock even before they reach the pad. In 2007 there was train derailment that impacted some SRB segments, you need to know if that would have been a Yes or a No?

Yet, I have noticed on Polymarket there is a market for whether the boosters on the Artemis II test flight will explode, which seems to be priced unexpectedly low.

You can't accurately evaluate the market until you understand what would have happened in these 3 cases. If these aren't considered "explosions" according to the bookie, then there never were in the shuttle program.

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    $\begingroup$ The 51-L boosters were definitely explosions, they were deliberately blown up by detonating the linear shaped charges of their range safety system. $\endgroup$ Commented yesterday

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