Questions tagged [uncertainty]
A broad concept concerning lack of knowledge, especially the absence or imprecision of quantitative information about a process or population of interest.
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What are some ways to represent uncertainty on a map?
Hypothetical question, so I don't have actual data or visualization to share, but this is a problem I might face in the future.
Let's say I have a map of a region, divided by counties. I take samples ...
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Linearity in local sensitivity analysis
As it is know local sensitivity analysis attempt to quantify the local impact of input factors on the model, through partial derivatives: a derivative of the outputs accordingly to the inputs, when ...
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What is the correct parameter range to choose when conducting a sensitivity analysis?
When conducting a (variance-based) sensitivity analysis, should I set the range of a specific parameter to its maximum allowable range, or restrict it to something more appropriate for my specific ...
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Including Ground Truth Uncertainty in Measurement System
I think this might be a basic scenario but I still struggle to find an appropriate methodology for my problem. Consider the following scenario:
There is a small moving object on an $xy$-millimeter-...
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Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty in the Framework of Bayesian and Frequentist
Beginning with definitions of Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty from this paper:
Aleatoric: Aleatoric uncertainty refers to the intrinsic uncertainty of a particular system and the observed data. It ...
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Loss function for probabilities with uncertainties
I have a problem for which I want to build a model that predicts probabilities with uncertainties.
As an example, let's say I want to predict the probability that it's going to rain today. My model ...
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Is cross-validation necessary for hyperparameter selection when bootstrapping various models?
I am attempting to evaluate the variance in performance for different logistic regression models using a bootstrapping scheme. My current idea is to use cross-validation within each replicate to ...
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Calculating the average uncertainty of a set of model predictions
We use data uploaded on a citizen science platform, eBird, to estimate annual abundance trends for India’s birds. Due to the nature of birdwatching, there are some locations (sites) in the country ...
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Is it possible to quanify the minimum amount of information a system must acquire or infer in order to make a reliable prediction about the future?
If a predictive system operates under constraints on information storage, is it possible to formally characterize the minimum sufficient information it must retain or infer from the past in order to ...
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Estimating confidence interval for parameters in a mathematical model
Say I have a nonlinear mathematical model $f$ that maps points $(u,v)$ to $(x,y,z)$:
$$
(x,y,z) = f(u,v)
$$
This model has 3 parameters: $(\phi,\theta,\psi)$.
I have $N$ correspondences:
$$
(x_i,y_i,...
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How can I estimate uncertainty in my nonlinear parameter estimation?
I am estimating the rotation $(\delta_\text{yaw}$, $\delta_\text{pitch}$, $\delta_\text{roll})$ between a camera and an Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) both onboard a drone.
I do this by placing $N$ ...
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Determining amount of points needed to get an accurate slope with a given uncertainty
I want to determine the accuracy, uncertainty and amount of points I need for my regression analysis. I have found these (unofficial) formulas:
$$S_{xx} = \frac{N(N^2-1)}{12} (\Delta x)^2$$
$$\sigma_m ...
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Uncertainty formula if measured "best" value is zero [closed]
If the uncertainty of a function $f(x,y)$ is given by:
$$\delta f = |f_{best}|\sqrt{ \left( \frac{\delta x}{x_{best}} \right)^2 + \left( \frac{\delta y}{y_{best}} \right)^2}$$
what do we do if $x_{...
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How to compare WT vs mutant predictions with MC Dropout ensemble (M=5, T=100) in a binary classifier?
I’m using an ensemble of M = 5 deep neural networks, each evaluated with T = 100 Monte Carlo dropout samples at test time to estimate predictive uncertainty.
The model performs binary classification (...
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Testing for difference in means between two groups for which each measurement has a unique associated uncertainty
I am wondering what type of statistical test would be appropriate to test for a difference in means between two groups for which each measurement has a different uncertainty. For example, I want to ...
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