Identifying Interests in Negotiation

Want to cut time, cost, and conflict in procurement? (Start by asking smarter questions) Asking vague questions like "What do you need?" leads to delays, rework, and missed savings. Procurement Excellence | 09 SEP 2025 - Too often, #procurement teams jump straight into sourcing strategies without fully understanding what the business truly #needs. Every great sourcing strategy starts with the right stakeholder questions. Here are 17 critical questions to ask: ✅ What is the business #need. ✅ What is the desired #outcome and success criteria. ✅ What are essential Vs optional #specifications. ✅ What is the project #budget and TCO. ✅ Who are the #key stakeholders and decision makers. ✅ What is the #timeline for delivery. ✅ What are #existing contracts to be leveraged. ✅ What #risks are to be anticipated during sourcing. ✅ What are compliance and #regulatory requirements. ✅ What level of #quality or service is expected. ✅ What are #ESG goals relevant to this sourcing. ✅ What is the #volume or frequency of purchase. ✅ What is the #pricing mechanism or model. ✅ What is the #evaluation criteria and scoring model. ✅ What is the #escalation process if dispute arises. ✅ What are the #performance metrics. ✅ What are #confidentiality or data security requirements. Why This Matters: → Speed up approvals by clarifying needs upfront. → Unlock savings by sourcing for outcomes. → Build trust as strategic partner, not an order-taker. Before saying "NO" to internal customers Before issuing the RFP to the market Procurement should understand the business need What’s the most powerful stakeholder question you’ve ever asked? #StakeholderManagement #StrategicSourcing #ProcurementExcellence

𝐎𝐧𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐞𝐦𝐚𝐢𝐥 𝐚𝐥𝐦𝐨𝐬𝐭 𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐦𝐲 𝐜𝐚𝐫𝐞𝐞𝐫 𝐚𝐭 𝐈𝐁𝐌. And it revealed something about how leadership actually works inside large organisations. At the time I was helping grow the SAP Analytics consulting business in Europe. Around the same period IBM had acquired Cognos. The consulting organisation had strong SAP capabilities. The software division wanted to push its newly acquired analytics platform. But they didn’t always lead to the best outcome for clients. 𝐈𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐝𝐞 𝐥𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐞 𝐨𝐫𝐠𝐚𝐧𝐢𝐬𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬, 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐛𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐚𝐧𝐬𝐰𝐞𝐫 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐜𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐟𝐞𝐫𝐫𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐧𝐬𝐰𝐞𝐫 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐨𝐫𝐠𝐚𝐧𝐢𝐬𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐚𝐥𝐰𝐚𝐲𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐚𝐦𝐞. So I did something that was not part of my role. I started building a global internal community around SAP Analytics experts, sharing real client experience across countries. No mandate. No KPI. Just conviction. Then one day I sent an internal email. Someone forwarded the message. Eventually it landed in the inbox of the global Cognos sales lead. Apparently he opened the email during a flight… and slammed his laptop onto the cabin floor. 𝐀 𝐟𝐞𝐰 𝐝𝐚𝐲𝐬 ��𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐈 𝐰𝐚𝐬 𝐚𝐬𝐤𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐥𝐚𝐢𝐧 𝐦𝐲𝐬𝐞𝐥𝐟. I was in my early thirties. And suddenly I had to defend why I had sent that message. Here’s the honest part. I knew the arguments. But I didn’t yet know how to structure them so they became impossible to dismiss. A colleague helped me prepare the response. He had a rare skill: turning messy thinking into pure logic. Weak sentences disappeared. Emotional language disappeared. What remained was structure, evidence, and one principle: 𝐃𝐨 𝐰𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐜𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐭. That experience taught me something important. Large organisations don’t only reward the best ideas. They often reward the people who can 𝐝𝐞𝐟𝐞𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐢𝐫 𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐚𝐬 𝐦𝐨𝐬𝐭 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐯𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐥𝐲. And those are not always the same people who create the most value. Not because their thinking was weak. But because their reasoning wasn’t structured strongly enough to survive internal debates. Today something interesting is happening. AI tools can help people structure arguments, test logic, and pressure-test reasoning in ways that previously required exceptional communicators. They don’t replace leadership. But they may change one important dynamic inside organisations. For the first time, 𝐜𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐦𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐫𝐭 𝐠𝐞𝐭𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐛𝐞𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐨𝐨𝐥𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐧 𝐫𝐡𝐞𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐜. If that happens, more builders - not just the best speakers - will shape decisions. Have you seen similar dynamics inside large organisations? #Leadership #DecisionMaking #FutureOfWork

🗺️ 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐡𝐨𝐥𝐝𝐞𝐫 𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐥𝐮𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐩: 𝐘𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐁𝐥𝐮𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐭 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐀𝐫𝐜𝐡𝐢𝐭𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐥 𝐈𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐜𝐭 Most architects treat stakeholder management like a checklist: • “Get buy-in from these 5 people.” That’s not really how influence works. Influence flows through 𝐧𝐞𝐭𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐤𝐬. Understanding these networks multiplies your impact. 𝐓𝐇���� 𝐅𝐑𝐀𝐌𝐄𝐖𝐎𝐑𝐊 1️⃣ 𝐏𝐨𝐰𝐞𝐫 𝐆𝐫𝐢𝐝 (𝐖𝐡𝐨 𝐃𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐬?) • High Power / High Interest: Your champions, invest heavily here • High Power / Low Interest: Sleeping giants, wake them up with relevant value • Low Power / High Interest: Your advocates, turn them into evangelists • Low Power / Low Interest: Monitor, don’t over-invest 2️⃣ 𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐥𝐮𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐏𝐚𝐭𝐡𝐬 (𝐇𝐨𝐰 𝐃𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐑𝐞𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐆𝐞𝐭 𝐌𝐚𝐝𝐞) Who does the CEO trust for technology advice? Which middle managers shape CFO’s budget decisions? Who influences the influencers...? 3️⃣ 𝐕𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞 𝐃𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐬 (𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐌𝐨𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐄𝐚𝐜𝐡 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐡𝐨𝐥𝐝𝐞𝐫?) - Career advancement opportunities - Problem-solving and efficiency gains - Risk mitigation and control - Innovation and competitive advantage - Budget optimization and cost control 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐌𝐀𝐏𝐏𝐈𝐍𝐆 𝐏𝐑𝐎𝐂𝐄𝐒𝐒 ✅ List stakeholders who impact your architectural decisions ✅ Plot them on the power/interest grid ✅ Tease out any influence paths between them ✅ Map each person’s primary value drivers ✅ Assemble targeted engagement strategies for each quadrant 𝐏𝐑𝐎 𝐓𝐈𝐏𝐒 → The real decision makers aren’t always on the org chart → Sometimes influencing the influencer is more effective than going direct → Different stakeholders need different messages about the same solution → Your influence strategy needs to evolve as people and priorities change Don't think of this as just politics. It’s 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐢𝐜 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐩 𝐛𝐮𝐢𝐥𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠. The best architects don’t only design systems. 𝐓𝐡𝐞𝐲 𝐛𝐮𝐢𝐥𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐩𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐞𝐧𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐬𝐞 𝐬𝐲𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐦𝐬 𝐠𝐞𝐭 𝐟𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝, 𝐛𝐮𝐢𝐥𝐭, 𝐝𝐞𝐩𝐥𝐨𝐲𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐚𝐝𝐨𝐩𝐭𝐞𝐝. 💡 Save this framework. Your next major architecture initiative will thank you. 👇 What’s been your experience with stakeholder influence? Any surprises about who really drives decisions? --- ➕ 𝐅𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐰 Kevin Donovan 🔔 ♻️ 𝐑𝐞𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐭 | 💬 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 | 👍 𝐋𝐢𝐤𝐞 🚀 𝐉𝐨𝐢𝐧 𝐀𝐫𝐜𝐡𝐢𝐭𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐬’ 𝐇𝐮𝐛 – Join our newsletter and connect with a community that understands. Enhance your skills, meet peers, and advance your career! 𝐒𝐮𝐛𝐬𝐜𝐫𝐢𝐛𝐞 👉 https://lnkd.in/dgmQqfu2

Your forecast is a wish list if you don't know who can kill your deal. Most reps wait until week 4 or 5 to ask "who else needs to be involved?" By then you're already screwed. Here's the thing. In most complex B2B deals there's 4 to 7 people minimum involved in the buying decision. Champions. Economic buyers. Influencers. Skeptics. Random people who come out of nowhere with opinions. If you don't map these people out early you're flying blind. So when should you start asking about stakeholders? From your very first discovery call. Here are 14 questions to uncover every stakeholder before your deal stalls. Early discovery questions: #1. "Aside from yourself, who else do you need to consult with before bringing on a new vendor like us?" #2. "Who else?" (Then pause) #3. "What is most important for each of them?" #4. "How did you go about choosing your current vendor or solution?" #5. "What was your last big purchase for your department? How did you decide to buy?" #6. "What does that process look like end to end?" #7. "Who will be involved in each of those steps?" 𝗨𝗻𝗰𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝗸𝗲𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗰𝘀: #8. "In your opinion, who's going to be your biggest skeptic internally?" #9. "What concerns do you think [stakeholder name] may have and why?" #10. "When you bought similar solutions before, who surprised you by having really strong opinions?" #11. "What's happened in the past when initiatives like this have failed here?" 𝗟𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝗶𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻: #12. "Who could say no to this partnership at this point?" #13. "If this goes sideways 6 months from now, who's going to be blamed?" #14. "What's a specific example of a time you were able to make a similar decision and get X on board? What happened exactly?" At the end of the day if you don't know who all the players are your forecast is just a guess. But when you know everyone involved... their priorities... their concerns... you can navigate the deal strategically and actually close it. — Want to see me breakdown each of these steps? Go here: https://lnkd.in/evBbgERU

Stakeholder analysis is more than listing names and roles. It is the foundation for every decision, every requirement, and every conversation that follows. When it is done well, it prevents conflict, clarifies expectations, and accelerates alignment. Here is what strong stakeholder analysis includes: 🔹 Understanding who the true decision makers are, not just who attends meetings 🔹 Identifying what each stakeholder values most so you can tailor conversations 🔹 Knowing where misalignment is likely to occur before it becomes a problem 🔹 Planning how, when, and why you will engage each person 🔹 Tracking how their goals or concerns change as the project evolves When you get this right, everything downstream becomes easier. When you skip it, everything downstream becomes harder. What is one thing you always look for when analyzing your stakeholders?

𝗛𝗮𝗿𝘀𝗵 𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆: 𝗠𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗵𝗼𝗹𝗱𝗲𝗿 𝗺𝗮𝗽𝘀 𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝘀𝘂𝗰𝗸. They’re not maps. They’re spreadsheets. And they won’t help you navigate 2025—a year defined by: ➡️One-party Republican control of Congress & the White House ➡️ Tarrifs ➡️Make America Healthy Again” policies ➡️Escalating fights over DEI, immigration enforcement, and workforce restrictions ➡️Concerns around free speech, academic freedom and AI regulation ➡️Budget and federal worker cuts (DOGE) that make 2013 look generous If your stakeholder strategy hasn’t adapted, your influence is shrinking. Here’s how to fix that. A smarter stakeholder map for 2025 should be organized like this: ⸻ 𝗕𝘆 𝗧𝘆𝗽𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗵𝗼𝗹𝗱𝗲𝗿: The OG category—media, Hill staff, trade associations, state regulators, advocacy orgs, donors, coalitions, etc. Important? Yes. Sufficient? Not even close. ⸻ 𝗕𝘆 𝗜𝘀𝘀𝘂𝗲: Tailor this to your organization—but if you’re not mapping stakeholders by today’s flashpoints, you’re flying blind. Hot zones in 2025: • Tariffs • Drug pricing • DEI backlash • Immigration enforcement • DOGE • Freedom of speech & academic expression • Medicaid and Medicare cuts ⸻ 𝗕𝘆 𝗣𝗼𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 (𝗔𝗹𝗹𝘆 / 𝗡𝗲𝘂𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗹 / 𝗗𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗿): Spoiler: Almost no one is “always an ally” anymore unless they’re on the payroll. It depends on issue. Your map should flex by issue. Be honest—don’t label someone an ally because they took your meeting in 2023. ⸻ 𝗕𝘆 𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁/𝗜𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗰𝘁 𝗠𝗮𝘁𝗿𝗶𝘅: If you’re not plotting stakeholders by influence + interest, you’re confusing activity with strategy. High influence, low interest? Your job is to make them care. Low influence, high interest? They can still amplify or derail your message. ⸻ 𝗕𝘆 𝗘𝗻𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗶𝘁𝘆 (𝟭, 𝟮, 𝟯): 1 = actively helping 2 = engaged but not consistent 3 = cold or resistant—but still powerful Track across allies and detractors. It tells you where your team’s energy is going—and whether that makes sense. ⸻ 𝗕𝘆 𝗧𝗲𝗮𝗺 𝗢𝘄𝗻𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗽: Who owns the relationship? What’s the origin story—board, former staffer, casual contact, college roommate? What’s your backup plan if that person ghosts or exits? (Also: backchannels matter more than ever. Don’t ignore them.) ⸻ In this environment, a good map should: • Be alive • Be issue-specific • Surface gaps and priorities • Tell you what to do next A name and email list is not a map. It’s a liability. How have you adapted your strategy? Reach out to me any time to discuss your organization’s coalition and stakeholder mapping and engagement needs.

The G.A.I.N.S. Comp Negotiation Playbook by Jacob Warwick Every successful negotiation starts with leverage. While most people ask, “What can you offer me?,” the people who secure the highest comp say, “Here’s how I’ll solve your most pressing challenges and create new possibilities for your business.” This shift isn’t semantic—it fundamentally transforms how decision-makers perceive your value. When you make them feel confident, inspired, and excited about the future you’ll build together, compensation becomes a natural reflection of that value, not a negotiation point. Whether you’re planning six months ahead or sitting in discussions right now, here’s the process Jacob Warwick developed through trial and error with hundreds of clients over 15 years. Here's the playbook: G: Gather intelligence. Go beyond the obvious. Dig into the company’s real challenges, understand who truly makes decisions (hint: it’s not always on the org chart), and know their market better than they do. A: Align with their needs. Stop selling your resume. Start demonstrating how you’ll solve their specific problems for the company/team. When you position yourself as the solution to their challenges—not just another candidate—the power dynamic shifts immediately. I: Influence key stakeholders. Create champions throughout the organization, not just with the hiring manager. Show each stakeholder how you’ll make their world better, and they’ll fight for your compensation later. N: Navigate complexity. Master the delicate dance of pushing for what you’re worth without creating tension. Know exactly when to advance discussions and when to build relationships. Timing is everything. S: Secure your value. Get agreements right, start delivering value before day one, and build the foundation for your long-term success. Here's more on part 1: G: Gather intelligence that others miss The most valuable information won’t show up in press releases or job descriptions. To build real leverage, spend time on three key intelligence domains: 1. Organization dynamics Forget the org chart—real power flows through history, unspoken alliances, and relationships. Approach: - Identify who gets consulted before decisions are made (often not who you’d expect) - Learn which past failures still haunt leadership thinking - Discover which rising stars have the CEO’s ear - Uncover the true drivers that aren’t discussed openly How to execute this: Before any interview, ask your network, “Who really influences decisions at this company?” and “Whose opinion does the leadership team value most?” The answers might surprise you. During the interview, ask questions such as: - How are decisions typically made in this organization? - Who are the key people I will collaborate with? - What’s the history behind this position? Is it new or am I replacing someone? - How can I best show up for you? And how can I best show up for [name other team member(s)]? Keep reading: http://bit.ly/3S1qiT2

Testing beats abstract debate. Especially with AI. We've all watched teams spend months talking about AI. The debate rarely resolves anything. Why? Because the conversation is too high-level. Truth shows up when you actually try something: something small enough to contain risk, and big enough to create nuance and learning. Earlier this year, Zapier's talent team put this into practice with AI recruiter screens: The team got clear on the problem to solve, tried it on a small scale with guardrails, then measured effectiveness—including the human experience—and published what they learned. Abstract alignment is expensive. Thoughtful testing is how you get enough context to build clarity: behavior you didn't predict, non-obvious tradeoffs, and concrete mistakes you can fix.

When negotiating, do you think the big wins happen at the table? They don't! The real magic happens before the first word is spoken. Success in 80% of negotiations is due to preparation. It's taking small steps to control the process, foresee challenges, and set small goals. I coached a procurement manager stuck in a deadlock with a supplier. Both sides had drawn firm lines: • The supplier demanded upfront payments. • The procurement team refused. • They feared cash flow issues. For weeks, the talk had gone in circles. It made no progress. When I stepped in, I asked one question: “𝙒𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙙𝙤𝙚𝙨 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙨𝙪𝙥𝙥𝙡𝙞𝙚𝙧 𝙧𝙚𝙖𝙡𝙡𝙮 𝙣𝙚𝙚𝙙?” The team realized the supplier's main concern wasn't money. It was to reduce delivery risks. By focusing on interests, not positions, we found a solution: 𝗔 𝘀𝗺𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝘂𝗽𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗻𝘁 𝗽𝗮𝘆𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁, 𝗽𝗹𝘂𝘀 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗻𝗲 𝗽𝗮𝘆𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀 𝘁𝗶𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗼 𝗱𝗲𝗹𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆 𝗽𝗵𝗮𝘀𝗲𝘀. The result? The deal closed in two days, with terms that worked for both sides. That negotiation taught me this: →  Preparation isn't just logical. → It's also strategic and emotional. I'm happy to share here how I prepare for a negotiation: 𝗦𝗲𝘁 𝗦𝗠𝗔𝗥𝗧 𝗴𝗼𝗮𝗹𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗴𝗲. • Be Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant, and Time-bound. • No vague goals like “get the best deal,” aim for concrete outcomes: → Add a long-term partnership clause → Reduce delivery timelines by 10% → Secure flexible payment terms 𝗙𝗼𝗰𝘂𝘀 𝗼𝗻 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁𝘀, 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗽𝗼𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀. • Ask, why does the other side want this? • When you negotiate based on interests, you create options that meet both parties’ needs. 𝗣𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗠𝘂𝗹𝘁𝗶𝗽𝗹𝗲 𝗼𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗿𝘀 (𝗠𝗘𝗦𝗢𝘀) • Successful comes with always having options ready. For example: → Offer A: A 5% discount for upfront payments. → Offer B: Standard payment terms and extended service coverage. If you present choices, you reduce deadlock and keep control of the conversation. 𝗨𝘀𝗲 𝗘𝗺𝗼𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲. 𝗡𝗲𝗴𝗼𝘁𝗶𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗶𝘀𝗻'𝘁 𝗷𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝗹𝗼𝗴𝗶𝗰—𝗶𝘁'𝘀 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗻𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻. • Practice self-awareness to stay composed under pressure. • Show empathy to build trust. • Use "Feel, Felt, Found" on objections, and it'll guide decisions. Negotiation is like a dance. Both sides need to move in sync, adjusting their steps as they go, to create a harmonious outcome. And the best dances are choreographed long before the music starts. So, what’s been your biggest negotiation breakthrough? Have you ever unlocked a deal by shifting focus from demands to solutions? Found success by preparing better than your counterpart? Drop your story in the comments—I’d love to hear it. Or DM me if this resonates with a challenge you’re navigating. Let’s talk about what works.

Don’t trust the experts — test their advice I came across this interesting article by Professor Oleg Urminsky where experts opinions would cut donation by half: https://lnkd.in/gJx9S9z4 Oleg and colleagues asked professional fund‑raisers (average 10 years’ experience) which of several donation letters would raise the most money. Three‑quarters chose a “giving‑credit” framing (“For every dollar you give, our sponsor adds a dollar to your gift”). A randomized field experiment told a different story: the expert‑favored version cut both participation and total donations roughly in half. The result is a textbook reminder of the Evidence Pyramid. Expert judgment is valuable for generating ideas, but it sits at the base of the pyramid. When the decision is important and you have the traffic, move to the top: run the experiment, observe the outcome, and let data override intuition. The most reliable way to improve conversion copy, pricing, or product flows is to test — because even the people who know the domain best can be systematically wrong. The impact of experiments comes from surprises.