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Here in New Zealand, about a week into the war in Iran, petrol prices shot up by about a third overnight, and have stayed there since. I was talking to a friend in America who described a more gradual and less extreme price rise (all things being relative, I don't mean to downplay a rise of less than a third, that's more gradual than overnight).

I have heard that while a third to a fifth (I've heard both figures) of the world's oil passes through the strait of Hormuz, the oil that passes through there is bound for the Asia/Pacific region, so any fuel shortages that result from the closure of the strait will affect the Asia-Pacific region more acutely. Places like America will experience price rises because of the general principle that prices rise when a commodity becomes more scarce, while the Asia/Pacific region will actually see their supply cut off.

To start with, is this accurate? I can think of other reasons America might be weathering this fuel crisis better than us; domestic supply, strategic reserves, etc.

But I am also hearing of places like Malaysia and Philippines (conspicuously not China) experiencing extreme fuel shortages. It's logical that there'd be a disparity in what places are most affected by the closure of the strait, but is it accurate that some places will simply experience a price shock during to the rules of supply & demand, while other places will experience actual shortages?

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  • Comments deleted. Please don't use comments to answer the question. If you would like to answer the question, write a proper answer that adheres to our quality standards. Commented yesterday
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    The United States is a net exporter of oil, although due to a protectionist policy that backfired, it's not legal to provide the western states with domestically-produced oil. Commented yesterday
  • @Mark its legal, with American ships staffed by American personnel. But yes, that's defacto a ban. Commented 18 hours ago
  • Petrol shot up from $3 to $4 on average in the US over a period of ~2 weeks. I guess it wasn't 'overnight' but it was likewise an increase by 1/3rd. Commented 18 hours ago
  • @JonathanReez ...my maths is off. We went from about $2.30 a liter to about $3.50 (bear in mind, a liter is just under 4 gallons and a US dollar is just under 2 NZ dollars, so direct comparisons are difficult), but that's an increase of more like 50 percent. I made the classic mistake of calculating from the end figure, not the initial figure. Commented 9 hours ago

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Apparently, it's Asia. Specifically named are "India, China, Japan, South Korea and several Southeast Asian states".

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most critical energy chokepoints, has disrupted fuel supplies and pushed up prices across the region.

About 20 million barrels per day (mb/d) of crude oil and oil products, or roughly a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade, passed through the strait in 2025. About 80 per cent of those shipments were bound for Asia, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

That means any disruption is felt most acutely in energy-importing economies thousands of kilometres away from the war zone.

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"Almost all Asian countries, in particular India, China, Japan, South Korea and several Southeast Asian states are heavily dependent on oil and gas imports from the Middle East,” Mr Lawrence Anderson, a Senior Fellow at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, told CNA.

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  • This gives a good answer on where there may be actual oil shortages which is mostly objectively answerable. Additionally there are multiple direct and indirect effects of price increases and the price increases are to a large part psychological or due to market power. Commented yesterday
  • Depending on the area in Asia, they are shifting their purchases to other sources Commented yesterday
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    Wait until famines hit Africa. apnews.com/article/… Much fertilizer is made from natural gas, which is impact even more than oil both in terms of production cuts and price increases, at least in Europe. Ultimately it depends how you want to measure such things. $ lost or lives etc. Commented yesterday
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    I've heard that there are shipments that were originally bound for Asian countries have been rerouted to Europe. Commented yesterday
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    Asia, the largest and most populous continent. I suppose that narrows it down, but perhaps the people getting bombed in Iran might be a more specific group as "most affected." If you want to move past them, UAE on the other side of the straight, and Kuwait and Iraq who just lost their ability to export via sea might also stand in for most affected. Commented yesterday
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What parts of the world are most affected by the closure of the strait of Hormuz?

The countries that only have sea access to the Persian Gulf west of the strait of Hormuz, unsurprisingly. Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, UAE. Iran is likely heavily affected too. Not just directly affected by the war or by oil export/import, but likely by all sea trade coming to a halt. As well as tourism etc.

As for the rest of the world and general fuel prices, countries that have no oil production of their own will be more affected than those who have it, since all oil prices are global. But oil producers might keep national prices down. For example, $4 a gallon is nothing compared to what non-oil producing countries pay for fuel.

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