Daniel Lohman, CPSA

SIMPLY GOOD FOODS CUTS 15% OF WORKFORCE Simply Good, the parent company of brands including Quest Nutrition, OWYN, and Atkins Nutritionals, Inc., has announced a 15% reduction in its workforce as part of a restructuring plan to streamline operations. The company expects these cost cutting measures to generate approximately $17M in annual savings while driving faster decision making and reducing fixed overhead. CEO Joe Scalzo described the move as a necessary realignment to improve financial discipline and operational performance following a difficult second quarter. The restructuring includes a significant shift in leadership roles, promoting Timothy Kraft to CAO and expanding the responsibilities of Jessica Morgan, Emily Johnston, and Kathy Hill. These changes follow the planned departures of CHRO Amy Held and Chief Supply Chain Officer Jason Bendure. The workforce reduction follows a quarter in which net sales declined 9.4% year over year to $326M. While the Quest brand remains a high margin growth driver, the company faces margin pressure and declining sales in the Atkins and OWYN portfolios.

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PepsiCo's coverage in the WSJ today highlights a trend that many of us consumers have been waiting for. Prices for everyday consumer items (food, drink, etc) have skyrocketed since the pandemic. Companies of all sizes have taken advantage of every opportunity to pass through price increases. Whether it be tariffs, global shortages, higher utility costs, or otherwise. When this happens across several layers of the supply chain (raw materials, ingredient/packaging manufacturers, freight companies, warehouses, importers/exporters, manufacturers, distributors, retailers) you end up with a compounding effect that slams the pocket of the end consumer. Pepsi's strategy to be an early-mover in price reductions seems to be paying off, at least in the near term. Perhaps this is a signal of a broader trend? At Circle Beverage we are experts in specialty, health and wellness products. While these types of products and consumers don't usually align with a discount model, we still make it a priority to manage costs tightly and to provide world-class quality at competitive prices. I'm curious to see how the price reduction strategy proliferates across the rest of the consumer goods industry. Hopefully a win for consumers.

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…”Most studies on UPF breads and cereals; packaged snacks; and sauces, spreads and condiments showed no associations with T2D. Most studies on UPF ready-to-eat-dishes; meat-based products; and artificially and sugar-sweetened beverages were positively associated with T2D. UPF dairy products; and sweets, snacks and confectionaries were generally inversely associated with T2D, although with some variation. Overall risk of bias was considered moderate to high in all included studies. In the DCH cohort, a positive association between the terrible five and T2D was observed (HR: 1.14, 95% CI: 1.05, 1.23). Intake of vegetables was inversely associated with T2D (HR: 0.96, 95% CI: 0.95, 0.98). Conclusion: The systematic review showed different strengths and directions of associations on the risk of T2D across the different subtypes of UPFs. Aggregating these sources into a coarse food category such as UPF therefore violates the assumption of causal consistency and, as illustrated in our post hoc analysis, can mask individual associations. This study illustrates potential unintended consequences of broad implementation of UPF-related policies without further improvement of the definition or mechanistic understanding.”

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GLP-1 is influencing the way users shop and dine out with most users viewing CPG food labels more, focusing on protein, fiber and eating smaller portions... t.ly/gFxbS

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Sprouts’ 2025 Momentum: $8.8B Sales, Strong Cash Flow, and a Leadership Refresh Key Points • Full-Year Growth: Sprouts Farmers Market reported 2025 net sales of $8.8B, up 14% year over year, with comparable-store sales up 7.3%. • Profitability Improvement: Diluted EPS rose to $5.31 in 2025 from $3.75 in 2024. • Store Expansion: Sprouts opened 37 stores in 2025, ending the year with 477 stores across 24 states. • Liquidity and Capital Returns: Sprouts ended 2025 with $257M in cash, zero balance on its $600M revolver, generated $716M in operating cash flow, and repurchased 4.0M shares for $472M while authorizing a new $1B buyback program. • 2026 Outlook Signals Near-Term Pressure: On a 52-week basis, Sprouts guided to comp sales of -1% to +1% for full-year 2026, with Q1 comps expected at -3% to -1%. • 2 Executive Appointments: Don Clark was appointed chief merchandising officer (with Scott Neal retiring), and Sprouts created a chief customer officer role filled by Amanda “Mandy” Rassi; both will report to President and COO Nick Konat. What It Means ✅ Strong Execution, Even as Comparisons Get Tougher: A 14% sales lift and 7.3% comps show Sprouts is winning with its core health-forward customer, but the 2026 guide suggests the company expects demand normalization and harder laps ahead. ✅ Cash Flow Creates Strategic Flexibility: With meaningful operating cash flow, cash on hand, and no revolver balance, Sprouts can keep investing in new stores and price/value while returning capital to shareholders. ✅ Merchandising and Customer Capabilities Are Being Elevated: Adding a new chief customer officer role and bringing in an experienced merchandising leader signals a push to tighten differentiation, loyalty/personalization, and cross-channel execution as growth moderates. ✅ Buybacks Reinforce Confidence, but Fundamentals Still Matter: A $1B authorization is a notable vote of confidence, yet the softer Q1 comp outlook puts added importance on traffic-driving innovation, price perception, and retention. Progressive Grocer | https://lnkd.in/gHK5VCCd #retail #supermarkets

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MONDELEZ BEATS ON TOP & BOTTOM LINE - BUT VOLUMES REMAIN THE ACHILLES' HEEL Q4 revenue $10.5B, up 9.3%, but volumes down 4.8%. The gap is widening. With cocoa costs easing and market share slipping from 50% to 40%, 2026 must be the year Mondelēz International pivots from price extraction to volume recover. CEO QUOTE: "We delivered solid top-line results, generated strong cash flow, and returned significant cash to shareholders in a dynamic and challenging 2025 environment. While unprecedented cocoa cost headwinds impacted our profitability, our teams remained focused on what they can control to best position us for sustainable, profitable growth." - Dirk Van de Put, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Mondelez International Exciting times Q4 2025 - Net Sales: $10,496m - OSG: +5.1% (Volume: -4.8%; Price/Mix: +9.9%) - Gross Profit Margin: 28.2% (-1,040 bps vs Q4 2024) - Adj. OP Margin (non-GAAP): 11.9% (+190 bps vs Q4 2024) - Analyst Consensus: Beat Revenue; Beat Adj. EPS Q4 Results by Segments: - Europe: $4,391m NR; OSG: +8.3% (Volume: -7.4%; Price/Mix: +15.7%) - North America: $2,763m NR; OSG: -0.5% (Volume: -3.7%; Price/Mix: +3.2%) - AMEA: $2,078m NR; OSG: +7.5% (Volume: -1.8%; Price/Mix: +9.3%) - Latin America: $1,264m NR; OSG: +4.4% (Volume: -4.1%; Price/Mix: +8.5%) Q4 Results by Market Type: - Emerging Markets: $4,122m NR; OSG: +8.0% (Volume: -3.8%; Price/Mix: +11.8%) - Developed Markets: $6,374m NR; OSG: +3.4% (Volume: -5.4%; Price/Mix: +8.8%) FULL YEAR 2025 - Net Sales: $38,537m - OSG: +4.3% (Volume: -3.7%; Price/Mix: +8.0%) - Gross Profit Margin: 28.4% (-1,070 bps vs FY 2024) - Adj. OP Margin (non-GAAP): 13.2% (-300 bps vs FY 2024) FY 2025 Results by Segments: - Europe: $15,027m NR; OSG: +8.6% (Volume: -5.3%; Price/Mix: +13.9%) - North America: $10,679m NR; OSG: -1.9% (Volume: -2.7%; Price/Mix: +0.8%) - AMEA: $7,932m NR; OSG: +5.7% (Volume: -2.1%; Price/Mix: +7.8%) - Latin America: $4,899m NR; OSG: +4.6% (Volume: -3.2%; Price/Mix: +7.8%) FY 2025 Results by Market Type: - Emerging Markets: $15,364m NR; OSG: +7.2% (Volume: -3.3%; Price/Mix: +10.5%) - Developed Markets: $23,173m NR; OSG: +2.5% (Volume: -3.8%; Price/Mix: +6.3%) OUTLOOK 2026 - OSG: Flat to +2% - Adj. EPS Growth (constant currency): Flat to +5% - Free Cash Flow: ~$3 billion To get all our insights, follow us / subscribe to our FMCG CEOs Insights newsletter (+37,000 executives): https://lnkd.in/ea4gy65y 🔔 And turn on notifications to never miss our latest thinking. 𝗔𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝘂𝘀: FF&A solves the most complex strategic problems of the world's largest FMCG companies 14 out of the top 20 world's largest FMCG companies are repeat Clients. #𝐅𝐌𝐂𝐆 #𝐂𝐏𝐆 #𝐌𝐨𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐥𝐞𝐳 #𝐐𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐥𝐲𝐑𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬 #𝐒𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐲 #𝐂𝐄𝐎

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This is what maturity in a market looks like. New High Functioning Podcast episode drops this week with Benjamen Mccabe McCabe, COO of Sweetgrass Botanicals ➡️ Full episode goes live Friday, Sept 12th at 11 AM EST In this clip, Ben explains how every new market starts with low-end products, then shifts as people demand higher standards. That shift makes solventless the natural evolution, the cleanest process that gives the most direct expression of the plant. 👇 Links and more are in the comments.

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The ice cream category is garnering a lot of attention lately. Natty Ice Cream is one of a small number of brands that’s tackling consumers’ insatiable demand for protein via the age-old indulgence. Tyrel Johnson, Co-founder and CEO, joined Shelf Help: The Tactical CPG Podcast to share the inside story of building Natty from a Breville machine to a fully licensed dairy manufacturing facility, then making the pivotal decision to shift from in-house production to a co-packer to support scale. We dove into brand identity and how Natty’s bold, dark packaging and Greek-god iconography carve out visual white space behind foggy freezer doors, tactics for breaking into frozen retail, working with brokers and distributors, managing trade spend, and building a brand that wins the first trial and earns the repeat purchase. Episode Highlights: 🍦 The fitness journey that inspired Natty Ice Cream 🧪 How they cracked the code on high-protein ice cream texture 🏭 Building a licensed dairy facility - then pivoting to a co-man 🎨 Why contrast drives frozen aisle packaging strategy 🔍 Visual storytelling and owning white space in frozen 📈 Breaking into Erewhon and early retail traction 🤝 Working with brokers, distributors, and deciding when to scale 📊 Modeling trade spend, margins, and operational realities 🚀 Emerging brands and trends Tyrel is tracking across CPG The link to the full episode is in the comments. Make sure to follow on Apple, Spotify and Youtube to be the first to know when a new episode drops.

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"Don't launch too many SKUs. Watch for SKU-mageddon. Avoid cannibalization." This wisdom echoed everywhere. Every conversation. Every meeting. Every industry article. I absorbed it all. Started second-guessing every flavor idea. Began having stress dreams about warehouse graveyards filled with failed products nobody wanted. Result? We became our own worst enemy. Think about the irony: We own our brewery. We can formulate and test faster than anyone. Billy can dream up a recipe Monday and have test cans rolling Friday. Yet somehow we let fear of "too many products" paralyze us into making... no new products. And the cure for analysis paralysis? Lower the stakes. Make failure cheap and success obvious. Lab Rabbit fixed this. Limited runs, QR code feedback, kill it if it sucks, scale it if it doesn't. Simple. Our Blackberry Lemonade with caffeine started as a quarterly Lab Rabbit experiment. Now it's becoming a permanent SKU because people tried grabbing it from my hands at tastings. When you can test for hundreds instead of tens of thousands, every "what if" becomes "let's find out." The hardest part isn't having ideas. It's giving yourself permission to test them without perfect certainty. Scared money doesn't make money. But smart testing makes everything. What idea are you sitting on because the stakes feel too high?

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In U.S. beverage alcohol, it is fair to say there remains a lingering hangover. In the latest Census news, total beverage alcohol (TBA) inventories remain well above average:  ~45% above 2019 average ~29% above 10-year average ~99% above 30-year average.   Inventory / sales ratio ticked lower sequentially to 1.65 in September vs. 1.67 in August but was still well ahead of 2019 average of 1.35, indicating that U.S. TBA wholesalers still have too much inventory on hand.   And consumer spirits surveys showed that pantries returned to prior lows, suggesting consumers may be turning to smaller pack sizes or looking to stretch purchases by waiting to refill pantries.   Of course, this will vary by category/price, and we continue to see growth in RTD and Tequila, but the overall picture remains "paying the piper."

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Premier Protein is teasing a soda launch. Their parent BellRing pushed 10.8% volume growth in protein shakes last quarter. Price and mix dropped 9 points to get there. That gap is the whole story. When the category leader has to discount that hard to grow volume, the format is mature. The shelf is set. Promo is the moat. There’s no room left to grow into. So the next move is a different format. I’ve watched enough mature categories to know the pattern. The leader hits a wall. Guidance gets cut. A brand extension ships into a category with looser economics. That’s not desperation. That’s the only move on the board. What’s actually changing is the definition of protein. Five years ago it was a workout post-script. Now it’s the functional ingredient that goes everywhere. Bars. Shakes. Coffee. Yogurt. Pasta. Soda is just the next port. If you’re building in protein RTD and your roadmap is bigger pack sizes and new flavors, you’re maintaining a position. The category leaders are showing you the format is full.

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The CPG “middle” is becoming a ghost town and 2026 isn’t bringing it back If you’ve been in CPG long enough, you know the “average consumer” used to be the bullseye. In 2026? That bullseye’s gone. After 35 years in this business, I’ve seen plenty of cycles......but this one seems different. The middle isn’t soft… it’s disappearing. What we’re seeing now is a full-blown K-shaped consumer reality. On one side: the value hunter is trading down, buying private label, squeezing every dollar like it owes them money. On the other: the mission-driven splurger is dropping $12 on functional beverages without blinking (as long as it checks the right boxes). And if your brand is parked in the middle? You’re not just overlooked, you’re getting margin-compressed from both directions. So what are the winners doing differently? They’re not choosing sides. They’re playing both ends of the spectrum and doing it well. > Precision tiering: Running a premium “hero” line and a value-focused offering at the same time. Yes, it adds complexity. It also protects margin like nothing else right now. > Complexity as a strategy (not a problem): The best operators, especially in PE-backed environments, are building systems that flex between premium and value without breaking stride. That’s where real enterprise value is being created. > The agility premium: If you can’t reforecast demand shifts in days (not months), you’re already behind. Shelf space doesn’t wait for committee meetings. The takeaway? In a K-shaped market, “one size fits all” is just a polite way of saying you’re about to lose relevance. The middle isn’t where you scale anymore, it’s where you stall. The brands winning today are focusing AND executing across both ends of the spectrum without losing margin, or speed. Is your portfolio leaning a little too hard into the “vanishing middle”? #CPG #KShapedEconomy #PrivateEquity #GrowthStrategy

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I just found this interview from ten years ago, and it is wild how I am still sharing this EXACT same message with brands on a daily basis. As Sircle Media has narrowed its focus to work exclusively in CPG and Beverage, these hold even more true: 1- Go as long as you possibly can without paying agencies = cash conservation is key in these money-strapped categories 2- Social media management isn't a job for 1 person; it takes the skills of many = dont under-invest in one hire and then hope and pray 3- Agencies are either overpriced based on assumed pricing, or they are (sometimes maliciously) selling what they think the market wants, vs what the market actually needs = brands end up hiring for sizzle (buzz) rather than steak (substance) In CPG, it is around a $3–$4 million run rate, where you have a real business with proof of concept, interested consumers with repeat orders, and it is time to level up and potentially raise a Series A round. At that point, your P&L should have a line item for a social media manager's salary and content support for communications, but putting that all on one person will fail 100% of the time. This will happen whether that person is amazing or not, because it is just never one human who can do it all. In 14 years, I have never met one 5th degree blackbelt social media manager who can do it all at an A+ level. As you build your stack, make sure you have the right foundation in place. One SMM tasked with everything will fail, and one agency without a real strategic approach will fail, too. Choose wisely. #socialmediaagency #socialmediastrategy #cpg

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There are rumors swirling that Beyond Meat may be preparing to file for bankruptcy. This is a warning for emerging CPG brands. I’ve been very critical of Beyond in prior posts. They’re the personification and poster child of VC arrogance and tech bro mentality in CPG - the “growth at all costs” model, and the belief that if you throw enough cash and marketing behind a product that eventually consumers will buy in. Beyond is ultimately a lesson in product market fit. The core users of beyonds products are vegans who don’t consume meat for ethical or dietary reasons. That’s a single digit consumer base who make habitual purchases of this category. Not enough to build a meaningful business or justify the massive shelf space them and Impossible Foods paid in every major grocery retailer. Beyond always believed that they could capture the “flexitarians”, people like me who will eat meat but sometimes choose vegan products for their perceived healthiness. One problem? These products aren’t healthy. They clearly meet the definition of an “ultra-processed food”. Consumers caught onto this. They recently dropped the word “meat” from their products, attempting to change this perception reposition the brand as a protein company. Very clearly looks like a last gasp before they go under, sad conclusion to a story which I’ve seen coming for years. If you’re an emerging brand, make sure you actually have a loyal repeat consumer with a large addressable audience BEFORE scaling into every imaginable class of trade.

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Amazon just entered the grocery game with its own private label, what this means for CPG brands The new line, Amazon Grocery, spans more than 1,000 products across dairy, produce, meat, seafood, snacks, and baking essentials, with most items priced under $5 At first glance, it looks like any other retailer doubling down on private label. Its not the same as Walmart, or Kroger entering launching private label into a new category. This is different: 🔹 Data advantage: No other grocer has access to this level of behavioural and purchase data across such a wide range of consumer touch points. 🔹 Ecosystem integration: Prime, Alexa, Fresh, Fire TV, Amazon can cross-promote and preference its brands across the entire shopper journey. 🔹 Proven playbook: Remember Amazon Basics? It started with batteries and cables, now its among the top brands in multiple categories So why now? Consumers are more value-driven than ever, and grocery remains one of the last big frontiers where Amazon can fully flex its scale and shopper intelligence. For years, Amazon has struggled to crack grocery and go head-to-head with Walmart. But with inflation reshaping shopping habits and value at the top of consumers’ minds, the timing couldn’t be better. This is Amazon’s moment to make its move. What this means for CPG leaders - Margin pressure:  Expect private label to pull value shoppers away from national brands in staples and pantry categories - Visibility decline: Amazon controls the digital shelf. Search rankings, Subscribe & Save, all can tilt toward Amazon Grocery. Whats I would do 👉 Don’t chase the performance spiral. You’ll be tempted to pour more dollars into retail media performance tactics just to buy visibility. Resist it. That’s a race you can’t win, because in the end, only Amazon wins. 👉 Double down on brand. Your true moat isn’t media spend, it’s equity: trust, fandom, and memory structures that make your products easy to think of. Protect and grow that advantage. 👉 Win on product superiority. When private labels play the price game, the strongest counter is product quality, distinctiveness, and innovation. The case for building superior products has never been more urgent. Curious, what implications do you see for brands, and how would you tackle them? Would you invest more on retail media to win?

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One of the biggest myths in CPG: “Growth solves problems.” It doesn’t. Growth actually exposes problems faster. More distribution doesn’t fix velocity — it amplifies weak sell-through. More stores don’t fix demand — they spread it thinner. More trade spend doesn’t fix performance — it hides it. And more revenue doesn’t remove bottlenecks — it puts more pressure on them. This is why so many brands hit a point where: Revenue is up… but the business feels harder than ever to run. In my experience, that’s usually not a product issue. It’s a systems issue. Curious for founders and operators: Did growth make your business easier… or harder?

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The Hershey Company’s Q1 2026 results expose a widening gap between CEO Kirk Tanner’s narrative and the underlying numbers. The release is polished, the call is confident, but the data Kirk avoids tells the real story. 1. Pricing is masking weakening demand. Net sales +10.6%, but 10 points from pricing. Volume down 2%. This is consumer pushback, not momentum. 2. Kirk's "beat" relies on timing pull forwards. Q1 was boosted by shipments taken from Q2 (~2 points). That’s not strength, it’s future borrowing. 3. Margin "expansion" is an accounting mirage. Gross margin +570 bps only because mark‑to‑market losses fell. Adjusted margin down 80 bps. The core business is losing margin. 4. Salty Snacks is deteriorating under Kirk Tanner. Sales +26%, but 20 points from LesserEvil Brand Snack Co. Organic +5.6%. Margin collapsed from 15.1% to 9.8%. A drag, not a growth engine. 5. International growth is padded, not earned. Sales +16.1%, but 7 points FX, five points inventory stocking that reverses in Q2. Organic volume down 2%. This is temporary, not global momentum. 6. Guidance is unchanged because expectations are already low. Organic growth of 2.5%-3.5% is not ambition, it’s bar‑lowering. 7. Kirk Tanner's narrative vs. The Hershey Company reality. He talks "bold moves" and "One Hershey." The numbers show: Declining volume, margin pressure, timing distortion, acquisition dependence, international fragility and Salty Snacks erosion. This isn’t a turnaround. It’s a slowdown wrapped in marketing language. Investors deserve clarity. Kirk Tanner is selling momentum. The evidence shows stress, elasticity, timing manipulation and margin pressure. The 2026 story is Kirk's veneer. The numbers tell the truth. What's your take? https://lnkd.in/dT84q2YP and https://lnkd.in/dxiZxgms #Reeses #Hershey #TheHersheyCompany #HSY #KirkTanner #EarningsQuality #HSYQ12026 #OrganicSales #VolumeDecline #PricingDependence #TimingShifts #ChannelStuffing #SaltySnacks #MarginCompression #CorporateGovernance #GovernanceDrift #BoardOversight #ShareholderRisk #FiduciaryDuty #EvidenceChain #ForensicAnalysis #AccountabilityNow #MarketIntegrity #ConsumerStaples #LeadershipTransparency #StewardshipFailure #DataDrivenAdvocacy #BradReese

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