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Prediction Consensus: 2025 Midyear Update

Published

June 26, 2025 7:31 am

This article is an excerpt of a members only VC+ Special Dispatch. Join VC+ to unlock the full analysis.

Prediction Consensus: 2025 Midyear Update

Each year, our editorial team at Visual Capitalist sifts through hundreds of reports and articles to put together our Prediction Consensus, an aggregation of everything that experts predict for the year ahead.

Almost halfway through 2025 now, it’s time to see how these predictions are holding up. From Trump’s friendships and feuds to geopolitical uncertainty and market volatility, many expert predictions have already come true.

Along with the update of our Prediction Consensus bingo card above, this article dives into the most notable developments with visuals breaking them down.

This article is an excerpt from the latest VC+ Special Dispatch. Join VC+ to access the full version, packed with more expert predictions and exclusive visuals. And for a limited time, get VC+ for life with a one-time payment. Hurry—offer ends in a few days.

Presidential Predictions and D.O.G.E. Cuts

While Trump has been fairly unpredictable during the first six months of his presidential term, many experts read him right when it came to his relationship with Elon Musk and Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell.

Even without any significant economic problems in the U.S., the president has been relentless in his demands for Powell to cut rates, already giving him the nickname of “Too Late” Jerome Powell.

Rather than blaming Powell for an economic downturn which hasn’t manifested yet, the focus has been on the interest payments of U.S. short-term debt, which would indeed fall if rates were cut.

These cuts are even more needed for the budget considering D.O.G.E.’s inability to cut spending, along with the lack of spending restraint in Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill”, which is estimated to add $2.4 trillion to the federal deficit between 2025 and 2034.

Looking at Elon Musk’s goals for D.O.G.E.’s spending cuts, we can see just how little the organization managed to cut in comparison to the projected 2025 fiscal year spending of $7 trillion.

D.O.G.E.’s inability to make headway in cutting spending, along with Tesla suffering from Musk’s political involvement, led to Musk departing from the administration on May 30th.

Just a few days later, Musk posted on X his dissatisfaction with Trump’s bill, calling it a “disgusting abomination”, and following up with posts alleging Trump’s involvement with Jeffrey Epstein. Trump’s retaliation came in the form of threats of revoking federal contracts and calling Musk mentally unstable.

However, by the following week, Musk had apologized and expressed regret for his statements, with Trump ultimately saying he had “no hard feelings” about the matter.

Europe Shines Brighter Than the “Not so Magnificent Seven”

When it comes to the markets, while experts predicted European equities’ returns to improve, they probably didn’t expect to see them outperform quite this much as quickly as they did.

In the first two months of 2025 alone, Germany’s DAX 40 index rose 13.2%, Italy’s Milano Italia Borsa by 12.5%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 by 7.8%.

Europe’s equity indices have been among the best performing of 2025 so far, greatly outpacing both U.S. large cap and small cap indices.

Amidst U.S. equity underperformance has been the mixed returns of the Magnificent Seven stocks, with significant divergences across the seven tech companies.

Apple and Tesla have suffered the most in 2025 so far. Musk’s political involvement has only hurt Tesla’s brand with non-Republicans and those outside of America, meanwhile, tariffs along with a late and poorly executed AI rollout have dragged on Apple’s returns.

For Alphabet, Google’s large capital expenditures on AI infrastructure are being seen as a drag on free cash flow which may not pay off. This hit to margins is coupled with revenue concerns from declining search usage due to ChatGPT’s rising popularity and the lack of a clear monetization plan for Gemini and Google’s other AI features.

If we look at Nvidia’s yearly returns since 2019 in the chart below, we can see that keeping up with the stellar triple-digit returns of 2023 and 2024 was a near impossible task for 2025.

While Nvidia’s growth has normalized from the breakneck pace of prior years, the company retains dominant market share when it comes to chip design. Along with this, the emergence of AI reasoning models and the development of agents have only increased the forecasts of token throughput and compute required.

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Now Available: 2026 Global Forecast Report

Visual Capitalist analyzes thousands of expert predictions as part of the Global Forecast Series, helping leaders navigate the year ahead.

Published

January 9, 2026 4:12 pm

Salina Vuong

Now Available: 2026 Global Forecast Report

The 2026 Global Forecast Report is now available exclusively on VC+.

The report is part of our annual Global Forecast Series, presented by Inigo, and it brings together more than 2,000 predictions from leading economists, strategists, and technologists to distill the most important forces shaping the year ahead.

Rather than focusing on short-term forecasts, Visual Capitalist’s editorial team synthesizes areas of consensus, disagreement, and emerging risk across global economic growth, financial markets, geopolitics, technology, climate risk, and social trends—offering a clear, high-level perspective on potential risks and opportunities for 2026.

Get the Global Forecast Series with VC+

Get the full report as part of the 2026 Global Forecast Series, presented by Inigo—now available to VC+ members.

Not a VC+ member yet? Join today and not only will you get the 2026 Global Forecast Report, you’ll also get:

Special Dispatches: Weekly visual briefings on crucial reports and global trends
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Prediction Consensus: What the Experts See Coming in 2026

We analyzed 2,000+ expert predictions to identify the top themes for 2026, from professional-class job anxiety to cautious market optimism

Published

December 18, 2025 11:21 am

Nick Routley

Prediction Consensus: What the Experts See Coming in 2026

We analyzed over 2,000 predictions from articles, reports, podcasts, and interviews to see what experts are predicting for the coming year. Below, we dig into a few of the top themes.

For the seventh straight year, we’ve sifted through the forecast landscape to bring you the Prediction Consensus, a synthesis of what analysts, thought leaders, and industry experts expect for the year ahead.

This year, we analyzed over 2,000 individual predictions from a wide variety of sources including Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, the IMF, The Economist, Deloitte, Microsoft, Gartner, and dozens more.

By mapping where these forecasts overlap, we’ve distilled the noise into 25 high-conviction themes displayed in our “Bingo Card” format, with the number of dabs reflecting the volume of supporting predictions.

To get the full analysis of the Prediction Consensus and to see what’s ahead for 2026, become a member of VC+ or purchase the full Global Forecast Series report and package.

The General Vibe of 2026

If 2025 was a year of adjustment—markets recalibrating to higher rates, geopolitics reshuffling around a second Trump administration and tariffs, and AI moving from hype to deployment—then 2026 is shaping up as a year of consolidation and consequence.

The consensus mood is cautiously optimistic but shot through with uncertainty. Morgan Stanley describes 2026 as “The Year of Risk Reboot,” a period where market focus shifts from macro anxieties to micro fundamentals, creating fertile ground for risk assets. The policy backdrop is unusually supportive: fiscal stimulus, continued (if slower) monetary easing, and deregulation form what analysts call a “policy triumvirate” rarely seen outside of recessions.

Yet The Economist strikes a more sober tone, warning that 2026 will be defined by uncertainty as Trump’s reshaping of geopolitical norms continues to ripple worldwide. The old rules-based order is drifting further, and the line between war and peace grows ever more blurred through gray-zone provocations, cyber incursions, and an ambient rivalry between nations.

In short: risk assets may thrive, but the world beneath them remains turbulent.

AI: Once Again, the Big Story

For the third consecutive year, artificial intelligence dominates the prediction landscape, but the narrative has evolved. Where 2024 forecasts centered on whether AI hype was justified and 2025 focused on deployment at scale, the 2026 conversation is about integration and consequences.

From Tool to Partner

Across industries, AI is moving beyond answering questions to actively collaborating with people and amplifying their expertise.

This is the year of the agentic AI build-out. Deloitte predicts that by year-end 2026, as many as 75% of companies may be investing in agentic AI (autonomous systems that can plan, act, and adapt with limited human oversight). These AI agents are set to become “digital colleagues,” helping small teams punch above their weight. Microsoft envisions a future where a three-person marketing team can launch a global campaign in days, with AI handling data crunching and content generation while humans steer strategy.

After years of anticipation, productivity gains from AI are finally expected to materialize in measurable ways. Morgan Stanley points to AI-driven efficiency as one of six key drivers of their bullish earnings outlook. Software and internet companies are expected to see generative AI revenue grow more than 20-fold over the next three years.

Of course, AI will impact the job market in other ways as well. Professional and knowledge-worker classes that previously felt insulated are now beginning to feel anxiety around job security.

Market Predictions: Riding the AI Wave

Conveniently, AI also dominates the market story. The consensus is unmistakably bullish, though tempered by valuation concerns and awareness of concentration risks.

S&P 500: Double-Digit Gains Expected

Wall Street strategists are clustered in a tight range for year-end 2026 S&P 500 targets:

Firm	Target	Implied Upside
Morgan Stanley	7,800	15%
JPMorgan	7,500	11%
UBS	7,500	11%
CFRA	7,400	10%
Bank of America	7,100	5%

The bull case from JPMorgan sees the index potentially topping 8,000 if the Fed eases more than expected. Morgan Stanley calls it their most bullish outlook in years, driven by returning operating leverage, AI efficiency gains, accommodative tax and regulatory policy, and contained interest rates.

Importantly, analysts expect earnings to do the heavy lifting in 2026. Bank of America’s Savita Subramanian projects 14% EPS growth but notes that P/E multiples may actually contract by 10 points, meaning the market climbs a wall of valuation skepticism. Morgan Stanley forecasts S&P 500 EPS of $317 in 2026 (17% growth).

Gold’s Super-Cycle Continues

Gold remains a favorite. Morgan Stanley targets $4,500 per ounce—about 9% upside from current levels. The World Gold Council notes that gold achieved over 50 all-time highs in 2025 and may post its fourth-strongest annual return since 1971.

The drivers are structural: central bank buying, geopolitical hedging, and concerns about fiscal sustainability. In a “doom loop” scenario of accelerating fiscal deterioration, gold could surge 15-30% from current levels.

Economic Predictions: Soft Landing, With Caveats

The IMF projects global growth at 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026—below the pre-pandemic average of 3.7% but not recessionary. Morgan Stanley expects similar numbers: 3.0% global growth in 2025, 3.2% in 2026 and 2027.

Advanced economies are expected to grow around 1.5-1.6%, while emerging markets hold above 4%. The consensus is a soft landing: growth moderates, inflation continues its gradual descent, and central banks ease policy—but not aggressively.

The “Higher for Longer” Era Fades

Central bank policy is expected to continue normalizing. Morgan Stanley’s base case has the Fed cutting to 3.0-3.25% by mid-year and then pausing for an extended period. The BoE is expected to bring rates to 2.75% before pausing. The ECB, facing below-target inflation and sluggish growth, may cut further than markets currently price.

Japan remains the outlier: the only major developed market central bank potentially hiking, with the BoJ expected to reach 0.75% by December before pausing.

Geopolitical & Trade Predictions: Tariffs and Tensions

Tariffs Become the New Normal

Perhaps no theme generates more consensus than this: the tariff regime is here to stay. Trump’s reciprocal tariffs are bringing in close to $300 billion in revenue annually, and while they may face legal challenges (Barclays expects the Supreme Court to deem them illegal), the effective tariff rate has peaked at 12.1%—the highest since 1934.

The economic impact is being absorbed more gracefully than many feared. UBS expects a “soft patch” in early 2026 as tariffs affect U.S. prices, followed by a broadening and strengthening of growth from Q2 onward. But the structural shift is profound: trade may reroute permanently, supply chains are diversifying, and the U.S. is explicitly using tariffs as a tool of economic leverage.

China Leans on Exports and Manufacturing

Facing deflation, a property crisis, and slowing domestic growth, China is pivoting to manufacturing and export dominance. The country is positioning itself as a more reliable partner, particularly in the Global South, striking trade agreements as the U.S. retreats from multilateralism.

Morgan Stanley expects China’s real GDP to expand 5% in 2026, helped by front-loaded government support. But the strategy creates global tensions: industrial overcapacity could flood world markets, and tariff battles may intensify.

Gray-Zone Provocations Increase

The Economist warns that Russia and China will test American commitment to allies through “gray-zone” provocations in northern Europe and the South China Sea. Tensions will rise in the Arctic, in orbit, on the sea floor, and in cyberspace.

This “ambient rivalry” short of outright war but beyond normal peacetime friction is expected to accelerate. Great-power competition will increasingly involve space-based intelligence, drone technology, and AI-powered cyber operations.

Assessing the Consensus

History teaches humility about forecasting. Previous years have contained unforeseen developments, and there’s no reason to expect 2026 to unfold precisely as consensus expects.

What’s valuable isn’t the specific predictions, but themes where informed observers are concentrating their attention. Examples include the transition from AI experimentation to building out infrastructure to support its widespread use. Or stablecoins becoming mainstream financial instruments.

Some of these themes will prove accurate; others will be derailed by events. But taken together, they sketch the landscape that institutions, investors, and policymakers are navigating as they position for the year ahead.